ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[supercane4867]

Satellite presentation of Eta is almost in uncharted waters for the North Atlantic basin. It's behaving like a SPAC system so far.

[aspen]

3 hours until next recon. Planned to take off at 7:30PM central time.

Yeah should catch it at its peak. Can't wait.

All of my fingers are crossed that it actually makes it.

Meanwhile, some >-35C pixels are starting to show up in the eye, and the CDO is a solid, thick ring of pink (<-80C). Probably at least 125 kt and <935 mbar right now.

[RL3AO]

Could it get to 8 maybe?

Sometimes it's worth looking back at Haiyan to remember what a true 8.0 is. Eta might be a cat 5 by landfall, but it's no Haiyan.

[supercane4867]

Could it get to 8 maybe?

Sometimes it's worth looking back at Haiyan to remember what a true 8.0 is. Eta might be a cat 5 by landfall, but it's no Haiyan.


https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/0/04/Haiyan_2013-11-07_1430Z_IR-BD_lineless.png/960px-Haiyan_2013-11-07_1430Z_IR-BD_lineless.png

It's all about eye temp and banding features. Eta does have a cold enough CDO but its eye temp has been lagging a lot.

[PandaCitrus]

Is the track supposed to direct hit on Puerto Cabazas? That seems to be the only large down on the entire coast, very unlucky if that is the track. There's a lot of very unpopulated coast there.

[CrazyC83]

AF304 is on the tarmac. AF305 had an SFMR malfunction I heard, which is critical when dealing with a high-intensity hurricane.

ETA into Eta - if all goes well - is probably around 0230Z. In time for the 10 pm advisory.

[aspen]

Recon is on the runway! Please, PLEASE make it this time...

[CrazyC83]

Could it get to 8 maybe?

Sometimes it's worth looking back at Haiyan to remember what a true 8.0 is. Eta might be a cat 5 by landfall, but it's no Haiyan.


https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/0/04/Haiyan_2013-11-07_1430Z_IR-BD_lineless.png/960px-Haiyan_2013-11-07_1430Z_IR-BD_lineless.png

It's all about eye temp and banding features. Eta does have a cold enough CDO but its eye temp has been lagging a lot.

https://i.imgur.com/dxIfWaX.jpg

That would be a borderline 6.5-7.0 there. Enough to justify 130 kt at the intermediate.

[ClarCari]

AF304 is on the tarmac. AF305 had an SFMR malfunction I heard, which is critical when dealing with a high-intensity hurricane.

ETA into Eta - if all goes well - is probably around 0230Z. In time for the 10 pm advisory.

PRAISE THEEEE!!!

I can’t keep taking this much emotional abuse

[cheezyWXguy]

Could it get to 8 maybe?

Sometimes it's worth looking back at Haiyan to remember what a true 8.0 is. Eta might be a cat 5 by landfall, but it's no Haiyan.


https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/0/04/Haiyan_2013-11-07_1430Z_IR-BD_lineless.png/960px-Haiyan_2013-11-07_1430Z_IR-BD_lineless.png

It's all about eye temp and banding features. Eta does have a cold enough CDO but its eye temp has been lagging a lot.

https://i.imgur.com/dxIfWaX.jpg

True but that may not be the case for long. This recent clearing looks like it could get all the way through

[supercane4867]

AF304 is on the tarmac. AF305 had an SFMR malfunction I heard, which is critical when dealing with a high-intensity hurricane.

ETA into Eta - if all goes well - is probably around 0230Z. In time for the 10 pm advisory.

Abandoning the entire mission because of SFMR malfunction is not worth it IMO. At least we could get some good FL level wind and pressure readings had they decided to go in.

[Nimbus]

Is the track supposed to direct hit on Puerto Cabazas? That seems to be the only large down on the entire coast, very unlucky if that is the track. There's a lot of very unpopulated coast there.

last few frames look kind of weird slowing down or bucking the ridge maybe.

[RL3AO]

Although a full ring of CDG is really impressive for any Atlantic hurricane.

[ozonepete]

Looks south of forecast track

https://i.imgur.com/hnLf79E.png

https://i.imgur.com/OKeq97I.png

that it is and its heading south of all models and eps .. appears to be doing a loop/stall from some of the previous model runs.

I totally agree. This is doing a counterclockwise loop and it may stall out as well. The building high to its northwest may be getting stronger than was forecast.

[CrazyC83]

AF304 is on the tarmac. AF305 had an SFMR malfunction I heard, which is critical when dealing with a high-intensity hurricane.

ETA into Eta - if all goes well - is probably around 0230Z. In time for the 10 pm advisory.

Abandoning the entire mission because of SFMR malfunction is not worth it IMO. At least we could get some good FL level wind and pressure readings had they decided to go in.

True, but that would defeat a lot of the purpose of the mission, especially considering the cost and safety issues with a high-intensity hurricane. It would be justifiable if this was a tropical storm or low-level invest mission, but not for a bombing major hurricane.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Very possible Eta is nearing Category 5 status right now.

[supercane4867]

Also you don't have to get a T8.0 bulletin from SAB or TAFB for ADT to be as high or even go beyond that. Patricia never had an official T8.0 rating on the subjective Dvorak scale but has the highest ever ADT output on the planet.

[ElectricStorm]

AF304 is on the tarmac. AF305 had an SFMR malfunction I heard, which is critical when dealing with a high-intensity hurricane.

ETA into Eta - if all goes well - is probably around 0230Z. In time for the 10 pm advisory.

Abandoning the entire mission because of SFMR malfunction is not worth it IMO. At least we could get some good FL level wind and pressure readings had they decided to go in.

Yeah for real they could have still got some valuable info...

[CrazyC83]

Also you don't have to get a T8.0 bulletin from SAB or TAFB for ADT to be as high or even go beyond that. Patricia never had an official T8.0 rating on the subjective Dvorak scale but has the highest ever ADT output on the planet.

Patricia also had a much warmer eye, but this could certainly get there.

The question: how high does NHC go on the intermediate advisory? I'd say high end cat 4.

[RL3AO]

I'd put it in the 125 to 130kt range now.