ATL: ISAIAS - Models

[aspen]

https://media.giphy.com/media/ZA4UxSct0xoCY7bJ0N/giphy.gif

I can tell you with certainty that if this verifies - it will not be pretty on the Jersey Coast or Long Island

Oh look at that second TC forming in about 5 days. Maybe the GFS-Para is hinting the wave in the central MDR could try and develop.

[ColdMiser123]

18z EPS even more enthused with PTC 9. I'd say over half now show a sub 1000 mb system. Quite a few hurricane landfalls all across the east coast.

How are they strengthening the system in the short term? are they initializing it and immediately strengthening or are they it strengthening after it is north of the GAs?

18z EPS even more enthused with PTC 9. I'd say over half now show a sub 1000 mb system. Quite a few hurricane landfalls all across the east coast.

Can you post a picture please?

 https://twitter.com/PeeDee_WxSC/status/1288647790004969472

[gatorcane]

Quite a number landfall in SE Florida or skim the coast with one 960-979mb landfall

[gatorcane]

00Z NAM much stronger and right shift through 51 hours, heading WNW:

[gatorcane]

Turning north at 63 hours:

[DestinHurricane]

Are the models sniffing out more favorable conditions near S FL and the Bahamas this weekend?

[GeneratorPower]

None of the model runs I’ve seen today show much cause for concern for wind or surge in Florida even with a direct hit. Nuisance impacts such as overturned plastic lawn chairs looks like about it.

[Hurricane Mike]

None of the model runs I’ve seen today show much cause for concern for wind or surge in Florida even with a direct hit. Nuisance impacts such as overturned plastic lawn chairs looks like about it.

Heavy rain and beach erosion at the very least.

[aspen]

I can’t wait for the models to shift all the way to the west again. Now that Isaias has formed with a defined center, and it’s still heading W/WNW, I doubt the models will favor this East Coast Sweep scenario for long.

And then they’re going to switch to the East later tomorrow.

[AutoPenalti]

Watch models shift west now that there’s a CoC lol

[Blown Away]

I think the NHC just said the heck with it and follow the Euro.

[Evil Jeremy]

00z GFS has some semblance of a circulation of Isaias in the Mona Passage in 12 hours, basically going entirely north of Hispaniola.

I.... doubt it.

[Hurricaneman]

00z GFS has some semblance of a circulation of Isaias in the Mona Passage in 12 hours, basically going entirely north of Hispaniola.

I.... doubt it.

I think the GFS is out to lunch, it basically reforms north of Puerto Rico by morning which looking at satellites is very unlikely

[HurricaneFrances04]

GFS is stronger, but should easily miss Florida this run

[caneseddy]

00z GFS has some semblance of a circulation of Isaias in the Mona Passage in 12 hours, basically going entirely north of Hispaniola.

I.... doubt it.

Also highly doubt the system at the rate is going and where it's located is going to miss Hispaniola to the east.

[HurricaneFrances04]

Agree with the doubt regarding this run of the GFS. Forecasted IR is nowhere close to reality

[TheStormExpert]

I can’t wait for the models to shift all the way to the west again. Now that Isaias has formed with a defined center, and it’s still heading W/WNW, I doubt the models will favor this East Coast Sweep scenario for long.

And then they’re going to switch to the East later tomorrow.

The fact that we’re getting such big model swings even just a few days out tells you that the models have a bad handle on things right now.

[SouthFLTropics]

I'm guessing that the most recent data that led to the 11:00 PM upgrade was probably not fed into these 00z runs. We may not see much of a change in the models due to this until 06z. If that is the case you can throw this GFS run in the trash.

[STRiZZY]

Agree with the doubt regarding this run of the GFS. Forecasted IR is nowhere close to reality

https://i.imgur.com/bJ0Juaq.png

Exactly lol, it needs to be flipped upside down.

[HurricaneFrances04]

The fake convection to the north is probably why the GFS has the center going north of Hispaniola