ATL: ZETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ClarCari]

The convection and winds needs to build down to form a solid eye”wall” in order for recon to find a eye. Overnight will most likely build a solid one.

[ElectricStorm]

The convection and winds needs to build down to form a solid eye”wall” in order for recon to find a eye. Overnight will most likely build a solid one.

Looks to be in the process of doing that right now

[ElectricStorm]

AF plane is done. Anyone know when the next recon is? I would think it would be pretty soon

[skyline385]

The ragged eye that was clearing up on Satellite seems to be collapsing again.

[skyline385]

AF plane is done. Anyone know when the next recon is? I would think it would be pretty soon

I recall someone saying NOAA recon is scheduled for 1.30 - 2.00 AM (no clue what timezone, probably EDT)

[ElectricStorm]

The ragged eye that was clearing up on Satellite seems to be collapsing again.

I think that might be due to the developing convection obscuring the eye, a sign of strengthening actually

[ClarCari]

AF plane is done. Anyone know when the next recon is? I would think it would be pretty soon

I recall someone saying NOAA recon is scheduled for 1.30 - 2.00 AM (no clue what timezone, probably EDT)

CDT

[ElectricStorm]

Raw T's getting up there
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 28 OCT 2020 Time : 045019 UTC
Lat : 24:11:32 N Lon : 91:24:13 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.9 / 982.0mb/ 63.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.9 4.4 6.1

[EquusStorm]

Just judging by satellite appearance alone without context/recon this looks like a low end major, am quite impressed on the structural improvement. Good thing it's running short on time and not early October when conditions are generally better or we would be in for a world of hurt.

[ElectricStorm]

I really hope that CMG is not able to wrap all the way around

[ElectricStorm]

...ZETA RE-STRENGTHENS INTO A HURRICANE...
...FORECAST TO BRING A LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND STRONG
WINDS, STARTING IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.3N 91.5W
ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM SSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM S OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES

[ClarCari]

aaaaaand were back to Hurricane Zeta

[EquusStorm]

Look at how fast this not only swept a lot of the dry air from the Gulf but nearly instantly reorganized near sunset

[skyline385]

Eye trying to clear up again, just popped up on Sat

[ClarCari]

Next recon taking off!

[JamesRainier]

There are going to be some surprised people tomorrow.

[Steve]

...ZETA RE-STRENGTHENS INTO A HURRICANE...
...FORECAST TO BRING A LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND STRONG
WINDS, STARTING IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.3N 91.5W
ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM SSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM S OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES

410 S of N.O. Is a pretty random call at 91:5. We are at 30/90+/- 91.5 is even west of Morgan City (like Franklin/Jeanerette), so 80-90 miles as the crow flies. Not to complain but you’d think SSW is the call there. See y’all tomorrow.

[xironman]

Look at how fast this not only swept a lot of the dry air from the Gulf but nearly instantly reorganized near sunset

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733552978572869632/770890880092471326/anim-09-1.gif

The mid/upper low over west Texas is pull in moisture all the way from the Pacific.

[skyline385]

Towers going up around the ragged eye. Also its actually taking up the entire GOM with its bands.

[kevin]

I remember everyone jokingly said 'imagine if this one also comes close to Louisiana' at the start when it was still a disturbance & that everyone who seriously believed that this would go west of the Panhandle was assumed to be fooling around. And now another dangerous hurricane seems to be on their way. After all that happened this season, Louisiana deserves an entire decade without hurricanes.