ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Cat5James
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1381 Postby Cat5James » Mon Nov 02, 2020 5:48 pm

Appears to be headed almost due South...
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1382 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Nov 02, 2020 5:49 pm

RL3AO wrote:Although a full ring of CDG is really impressive for any Atlantic hurricane.

Yeah the western Caribbean has lived up to its potential this season.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1383 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Nov 02, 2020 5:50 pm

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 02 NOV 2020 Time : 222017 UTC
Lat : 14:25:15 N Lon : 82:25:58 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.8 / 954.0mb/109.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.8 6.2 6.6

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -41.7C Cloud Region Temp : -75.1C

Scene Type : EYE

Subtropical Adjustment : OFF

Extratropical Adjustment : OFF

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.3T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1384 Postby supercane4867 » Mon Nov 02, 2020 5:51 pm

Eta will reach maximum outflow in the next few hours as the NW Atlantic trough fully ventilates the system. This should aid the eye clearing process.

Image
Last edited by supercane4867 on Mon Nov 02, 2020 5:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1385 Postby RL3AO » Mon Nov 02, 2020 5:52 pm

Image

First T7. 0 frame with the appearance of a dg eye.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1386 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Nov 02, 2020 5:52 pm

Cat5James wrote:Appears to be headed almost due South...


Shades of Mitch 1998...
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1387 Postby galaxy401 » Mon Nov 02, 2020 5:52 pm

Praying for the Recon flight that no issues come up and for their safety as well. I can sense a lot of people, including myself, have been on edge regarding these recon flights.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1388 Postby AutoPenalti » Mon Nov 02, 2020 5:52 pm

Wow, TWC have no regard for Eta. Disgrace.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.


Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1389 Postby Owasso » Mon Nov 02, 2020 5:52 pm

Image
Finally, here we go.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1390 Postby Owasso » Mon Nov 02, 2020 5:53 pm

 https://twitter.com/FlynonymousWX/status/1323397038424424448


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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1391 Postby Cunxi Huang » Mon Nov 02, 2020 5:54 pm

2020NOV02 222017 5.8 954.0 109.8 5.8 6.2 6.6 1.3T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF -41.72 -75.05 EYE -99 IR 20.0 14.42 82.43 FCST GOES16 18.9

Final T# catching up raw T# quickly, we'll see something above 6.0 soon and NHC can use as a reference assigning a higher intensity to Eta.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1392 Postby supercane4867 » Mon Nov 02, 2020 5:54 pm

Sunset loop

Image
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1393 Postby ElectricStorm » Mon Nov 02, 2020 5:54 pm

Let's go plane! You can do it! :lol:
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1394 Postby supercane4867 » Mon Nov 02, 2020 5:55 pm

Definitely the most anticipated NATL recon mission since Wilma.
Last edited by supercane4867 on Mon Nov 02, 2020 5:55 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1395 Postby cheezyWXguy » Mon Nov 02, 2020 5:55 pm

We may never know how fast it strengthened but the waiting may pay off as it looks like this is going to try to peak right around the time recon gets there. That eye is clearing out
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1396 Postby AutoPenalti » Mon Nov 02, 2020 5:55 pm

Looks like it stalled? Seems to be wobbling now.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
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ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1397 Postby aspen » Mon Nov 02, 2020 5:56 pm

I think the dramatically improving Dvorak/IR appearance of Eta is enough for an upgrade to 120-130 kt at the intermediate advisory despite no direct observations (yet). The CDO has deepened to CDG and rapidly smoothed out, and the tiny eye continues to clear. If the eye fully clears, I could see a 155 kt system out of this.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1398 Postby NevadaFan18 » Mon Nov 02, 2020 5:57 pm

This is going to be the probably the most hyped recon flight in recent memory...

https://twitter.com/frankcarcaterra/sta ... 93216?s=21
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1399 Postby wxman57 » Mon Nov 02, 2020 5:57 pm

1 hr movement toward 201 deg at 6 kts. 3 hr movement 221 deg at 6 kts. It's just wobbling around 60 miles offshore.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1400 Postby cainjamin » Mon Nov 02, 2020 5:57 pm

Wow. Not often you see a full -80C CDO in the Atlantic. Haven't felt this much anticipation for a recon mission since Patricia.
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