EPAC: DOUGLAS - Remnants

[Highteeld]

Probably around 90-95 knots intensity; eye becoming more prominent

[aspen]

Probably around 90-95 knots intensity; eye becoming more prominent

https://i.imgur.com/Cb2QNqM.png

Finally, a classic RI EPac system! This is looking like it’ll get to 120-125 kt by the end of its intensification phase.

[Kingarabian]

22/1730 UTC 11.7N 130.2W T5.0/5.0 DOUGLAS -- East Pacific

[Kingarabian]

It's looking marvelous but the 12z Euro brings a hurricane over my house.

[aspen]

EPac has finally gotten its act together.

[Kingarabian]

EPac has finally gotten its act together.
[url]https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2020ep08/1kmsrvis/2020ep08_1kmsrvis_202007221810.gif[url]

He sure is looking good... but I'll know the EPAC has gotten its act together when the eye actually clears out. Also it's recommended if you post images here, to upload them to a hosting site (like imgur) that way when this thread gets archived, your image will not disappear .

[Chris90]

It's looking marvelous but the 12z Euro brings a hurricane over my house.

Let's hope 2020 doesn't have some kind of vendetta against us EPAC enthusiasts; I'm in northern Illinois and got Cristobal when it was still a decently organized system. Granted, it didn't do anything damaging here, but it was definitely a different experience and crazy that it made it that far.

I'm going to send out all my decoupling vibes to Douglas. I hope this ends up being nothing more than a scare for all of you on the islands and doesn't actually amount to anything.

[Kingarabian]

It's looking marvelous but the 12z Euro brings a hurricane over my house.

Let's hope 2020 doesn't have some kind of vendetta against us EPAC enthusiasts; I'm in northern Illinois and got Cristobal when it was still a decently organized system. Granted, it didn't do anything damaging here, but it was definitely a different experience and crazy that it made it that far.

I'm going to send out all my decoupling vibes to Douglas. I hope this ends up being nothing more than a scare for all of you on the islands and doesn't actually amount to anything.

Appreciate it. I've mentioned Hawaii's poor infrastructure many times in prior years, and a hurricane impact would be very damaging regardless.

[storminabox]

Probably around 90-95 knots intensity; eye becoming more prominent

https://i.imgur.com/Cb2QNqM.png

Finally, a classic RI EPac system! This is looking like it’ll get to 120-125 kt by the end of its intensification phase.

It is possible that both the Atlantic and the Pacific will get their first major canes within the next day or two. The latter will most definitely. Douglas is doing what Cristina miserably failed to do. The 5pm EST advisory should be interesting.

[Kingarabian]

Eye clearing out:

[SconnieCane]

Wowzers. Looks like Douglas won the race for the EPAC (which of the Big Three northern hemisphere basins gets the first clear eye of 2020), although Gonzalo in the Atlantic might not be far behind.

[Yellow Evan]

Not sure what supports this but okay.

EP, 08, 2020072218, , BEST, 0, 119N, 1303W, 70, 990, HU, 34, NEQ, 70, 30, 30, 60, 1011, 210, 10, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, DOUGLAS, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 014,
EP, 08, 2020072218, , BEST, 0, 119N, 1303W, 70, 990, HU, 50, NEQ, 30, 10, 10, 30, 1011, 210, 10, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, DOUGLAS, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 014,
EP, 08, 2020072218, , BEST, 0, 119N, 1303W, 70, 990, HU, 64, NEQ, 10, 0, 0, 10, 1011, 210, 10, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, DOUGLAS, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 014,

[CrazyC83]

Yeah some agency is giving a low Dvorak estimate there. I'd put it at 90 kt.

[Kingarabian]

Yeah some agency is giving a low Dvorak estimate there. I'd put it at 90 kt.

One of them was probably ADT. However it just jumped up:

Current Intensity Analysis





UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 22 JUL 2020 Time : 185032 UTC
Lat : 11:53:42 N Lon : 130:17:42 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.0 / 987.3mb/ 65.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.8 4.3 5.3

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -30.2C Cloud Region Temp : -61.9C

Scene Type : EYE

[Yellow Evan]

ADT will probably be adjusted for microwave anyway soon.

[Kingarabian]

More dry air intrusion and likely a pseudo ERC:

[Kingarabian]

Hurricane Douglas Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082020
1100 AM HST Wed Jul 22 2020

Douglas's structure has continued to improve, with a more
well-defined eye becoming apparent in visible and microwave
satellite images. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB
and SAB range from T4.0/65 kt and T5.0/90 kt, while the latest
UW-CIMSS ADT is 4.0. Douglas's initial intensity is therefore
raised to 70 kt as a blend of the satellite estimates.

The hurricane has begun to gain some latitude, and the initial
motion is just north of due west, or 275/14 kt. The track forecast
reasoning has not changed since earlier this morning, with a
persistent mid-tropospheric ridge to Douglas's north expected to be
the main driving force for the entire 5-day forecast period.
Douglas is forecast to turn west-northwestward by this evening, and
then maintain that heading with some increase in forward speed
through day 4 as it approaches the Hawaiian Islands. A bend back
to the west is then expected at the end of the forecast period.
The new NHC track forecast lies right along the forecast path from
the previous advisory through 60 hours, although it has been
shifted slightly north on days 3-5 based on an overall shift of the
guidance envelope at those times. Confidence in the track forecast
at this stage is rather high.

Intensity-wise, low shear and sea surface temperature of 28-29C
favor continued strengthening, potentially at a rapid rate for the
next 24 hours. SHIPS, HCCA, and the Florida State Superensemble
all bring the intensity near or at major hurricane strength in
24-36 hours, which qualifies as rapid intensification. The NHC
intensity forecast is in line with these models and lies near the
upper bound of the guidance envelope given the favorable
conditions. Some weakening is expected to begin by 48 hours due to
cooler waters, but since vertical shear is not expected to increase
until around day 4, the weakening rate is likely to be gradual.
This forecast increases the chance that Douglas could maintain
hurricane intensity as it approaches the Hawaiian Islands, and all
interests on the islands should monitor the forecasts as they
evolve over the next few days.

Key Messages:

1. Douglas is expected to move near or over portions of the
Hawaiian Islands this weekend, and there is an increasing chance
that strong winds and heavy rainfall could affect portions
of the state beginning on Sunday. Interests on the Hawaiian
Islands should continue to monitor the progress of Douglas and the
official forecasts as they evolve over the next few days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/2100Z 12.1N 130.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 12.7N 132.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 23/1800Z 13.8N 135.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 24/0600Z 15.1N 138.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 24/1800Z 16.4N 141.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 25/0600Z 17.6N 145.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 25/1800Z 18.7N 148.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 26/1800Z 20.0N 154.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...NEAR HAWAII
120H 27/1800Z 21.0N 160.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...NEAR HAWAII

$$
Forecaster Berg

The issue here compared to Julio 2014/Ignacio 2015/Lester 2016 is that the models and their ensembles show the ridge filling back in.

[HurricaneEnzo]

Geeze Hawaii in the crosshairs again. Seems to have happened so many times in the last 5-6 years. Lane and Iselle definitely caused major problems but at least for their sake it has been more misses than hits. This one will likely have a tough time as most storms that approach Hawaii from the East tend to do.

Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk

[aspen]

The eye is looking far more symmetrical on visible satellite imagery despite temporarily being cooler.

[HurricaneRyan]

Doug getting his revenge on Roger finally.