ATL: EPSILON - Post-Tropical

[Iceresistance]

And yet people keep saying that this season isn't that impressive...

And the only reason why is there are currently no CAT 5 hurricanes. . .YET

Huh? How does that mean there are no Cat 5s? My point was about the tweet. And it's getting pretty late for a Cat 5, not impossible, but unlikely. A couple more majors are still possible though

You will never know, in November 1932, a powerful CAT 5 hurricane was brewing in the western Caribbean, it would strike Cuba as a CAT 4 hurricane, & blow through the Bahamas
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1932_Cuba_hurricane#/media/File:1932_Atlantic_hurricane_14_track.png

[cheezyWXguy]

Let's try to stay on topic

True, but there is winter weather expected, is there a discussion for that?

Touche. There should be one or just have it be in the casual convo thread. But it ain't a big deal either way

There is, it’s the winter weather sub forum. You can start a topic there if there isn’t one already. Same the the USA weather sub forum

[ElectricStorm]

And the only reason why is there are currently no CAT 5 hurricanes. . .YET

Huh? How does that mean there are no Cat 5s? My point was about the tweet. And it's getting pretty late for a Cat 5, not impossible, but unlikely. A couple more majors are still possible though

You will never know, in November 1932, a powerful CAT 5 hurricane was brewing in the western Caribbean, it would strike Cuba as a CAT 4 hurricane, & blow through the Bahamas
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1932_Cuba_hurricane#/media/File:1932_Atlantic_hurricane_14_track.png

Yeah I actually brought that up in one of the other threads lol. That's why I said unlikely, but not impossible

[Iceresistance]

True, but there is winter weather expected, is there a discussion for that?

Touche. There should be one or just have it be in the casual convo thread. But it ain't a big deal either way

There is, it’s the winter weather sub forum. You can start a topic there if there isn’t one already. Same the the USA weather sub forum

I found it

[Iceresistance]

GFS is calling for a strong Caribbean hurricane by the start of November.

[cheezyWXguy]

GFS is calling for a strong Caribbean hurricane by the start of November.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2020101918/gfs_mslp_pcpn_watl_59.png
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2020101918/gfs_mslp_pcpn_watl_60.png
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2020101918/gfs_mslp_pcpn_watl_61.png
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2020101918/gfs_mslp_pcpn_watl_62.png

I think the Talking Tropics forum would appreciate this instead. There’s a global models thread where posts like this are usually made.

[Iceresistance]

GFS is calling for a strong Caribbean hurricane by the start of November.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2020101918/gfs_mslp_pcpn_watl_59.png
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2020101918/gfs_mslp_pcpn_watl_60.png
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2020101918/gfs_mslp_pcpn_watl_61.png
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2020101918/gfs_mslp_pcpn_watl_62.png

I think the Talking Tropics forum would appreciate this instead. There’s a global models thread where posts like this are usually made.

I just realized that this is the discussion, not the models site.

[ElectricStorm]

GFS is calling for a strong Caribbean hurricane by the start of November.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2020101918/gfs_mslp_pcpn_watl_59.png
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2020101918/gfs_mslp_pcpn_watl_60.png
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2020101918/gfs_mslp_pcpn_watl_61.png
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2020101918/gfs_mslp_pcpn_watl_62.png

I think the Talking Tropics forum would appreciate this instead. There’s a global models thread where posts like this are usually made.

I just realized that this is the discussion, not the models site.

There's a models thread for each individual storm but there's also a general global models thread

[cycloneye]

As of 00:00 UTC Oct 20, 2020:

Location: 25.2°N 55.3°W
Maximum Winds: 40 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 998 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1008 mb
Radius of Circulation: 330 nm
Radius of Maximum wind: 150 nm
34 kt Wind Radii by Quadrant:

[JRD]

Someone tell me why Epsilon is Tropical and not Subtropical?

Both the winds and the convection can be found close to the center, and it's got a moderate warm core (albeit almost right on the border between symmetric and asymmetric, which explains why it looks subtropical).

[abajan]

I think the Talking Tropics forum would appreciate this instead. There’s a global models thread where posts like this are usually made.

I just realized that this is the discussion, not the models site.

There's a models thread for each individual storm but there's also a general global models thread

Here it is, Iceresistance.
You're welcome.

[aspen]

Despite having a dry slot on the NE quadrant, Epsilon is developing an eye-like feature on visible satellite imagery. Experimental satellite estimates support an upgrade to 45 kt, maybe even 50 kt.

[aspen]

12z best track is up to 45 kt/996 mbar.

[Iceresistance]

I really don't know how Epsilon is not a subtropical storm

[JRD]

I think Epsilon looks more like a mini-Teddy without fronts rather than subtropical.

[Kazmit]

I really don't know how Epsilon is not a subtropical storm

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc20/ATL/27L.EPSILON/ir/geo/1km_bw/LATEST.jpg

It looks very tropical to me- convection is close to the center.

[Buck]

I really don't know how Epsilon is not a subtropical storm

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc20/ATL/27L.EPSILON/ir/geo/1km_bw/LATEST.jpg

It’s core is small but clearly tropical.

[us89]

I don't see how you can call this subtropical. Ignore the cloudiness to the north and east of the center, and you'll notice it's building a solid CDO, which you don't really see in subtropical storms.

It does bear some resemblance to an extratropical cyclone, though. It has that "hammer" look of a mature Shapiro-Keyser extratropical cyclone with a detached cold front - which is more or less what Teddy wound up becoming.

[JRD]

Besides the convection mentioned by other posters, Epsilon has a moderately warm core which is forecast to become a deeply warm core. Subtropical storms instead have shallow warm cores. Epsilon happens to look somewhat subtropical because it's in the asymmetric warm core quadrant, but I think a better analogy would be tropical cyclones undergoing extratropical transition.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Up to 45 knots per ATCF.