ATL: ETA - Models

[Blown Away]

12z HWRF/HMON going w/ SFL landfall probably nearing Cat 2...

Wow!

An hour ago it was going to be weak...now its a cat 1-2

We are an emotional group.

[toad strangler]

The 12zGFS handwringing was epic

[SFLcane]

For those doubting please go to Etas other thread and see what our very own wxman57 just posted. Time to get ready

[TheStormExpert]

Well the hurricane models surely didn’t let up. Up next, Euro!

[TheStormExpert]

Wow!

An hour ago it was going to be weak...now its a cat 1-2

We are an emotional group.

Some of our mood swings are just as crazy as Florida’s weather!

[AutoPenalti]

I think despite the HWRF solution, NHC may hold off on bumping up intensity until recon and happy hour 18z.

[SFLcane]

[TheStormExpert]

https://i.imgur.com/p7X8BQ7.png

Definitely going to be a nasty Sunday night/Monday morning for metropolitan SE Florida if that holds true.

[jlauderdal]

Wow!

An hour ago it was going to be weak...now its a cat 1-2

We are an emotional group.

Lets not get like those crazy Texans , keep your cool Floridians, we can handle an ETA. Don't lose your focus, the election is over, time to prep.

[Weatherboy1]

FWIW 12z NAVGEM hits about where Irene did in 1999 as a borderline Cat 1/high end TS, rides the spine of the peninsula for a bit, then exits on the west coast not east

[jdray]

HWRF about to make landfall as a 1/2 around Aventura/Hallandale Beach area

Landfalls right on the Miami-Dade/Broward line and then takes Alligator Alley straight west to Naples

And it might wrap up a bit tighter with land interaction and wont lose any strength due to the everglades and water temp.
This storm might actually be a pretty good hurricane in the eastern GOM as well.

Will definitely need to be watched for everyone in Florida and along the panhandle. Even if not a strong wind storm, the amount of rain will cause some serious flooding concerns.

[Nuno]

An hour ago it was going to be weak...now its a cat 1-2

We are an emotional group.

Lets not get like those crazy Texans , keep your cool Floridians, we can handle an ETA. Don't lose your focus, the election is over, time to prep.

Went to Publix last night, it was a ghost town.

[Frank2]

I love S2k! If funny how when intensity is up on the models some posters vanish then when 1 run trends a bit weaker it’s time to downcast or there is nothing to worry. Fact is nhc does not put out forecast or change thoughts on 1 gfs run lol if the trend persist into tomorrow they maybe it’s a trend. Euro trended stronger and recon is on its way so we will know more later today. Let’s see if the rest of the 12z suite comes in weaker

Well, I won't lie and say I don't do what you said because I do, but it's only because to read one dire comment after another tends to raise my blood pressure and my health requires I remain as calm as possible (almost impossible in today's world but I have to try).

Anyway, right now Eta looks like those Italian garlic rolls that come with a pizza order (LOL), and the European model cluster is very hopeful and Gatorcane's GFS graphics are also very encouraging - lettuce hope so (must be time for lunch lol).

Frank

[Blown Away]

Models really backing off the big W bend, most barely make it past 83W. Mighty Euro either flexes it’s excellence staying W or will come in line with all the other??

Where is Ukmet?

[Spacecoast]

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------

The Bahamas and Southern Florida, including the Keys: 5 to 10
inches (125 to 255 mm), isolated maximum totals of 15 inches
(380 mm).

- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 4(15) 2(17)
FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 6(21) 1(22)
FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 24(25) 6(31) 1(32)
W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6)
W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2)
FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 31(33) 5(38) 1(39)
FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) 1(10)
FT LAUDERDALE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2)
MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 5(27) 2(29)
MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7)
HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 5(27) 1(28)
HOMESTEAD ARB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7)
HOMESTEAD ARB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 27(31) 7(38) 2(40)
MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 3(13) 1(14)
MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 1( 4)
KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 20(23) 8(31) 3(34)
KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) 1(11)
KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4)
NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) 11(35) 3(38)
NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9)
NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2)

[ObsessedMiami]

For those doubting please go to Etas other thread and see what our very own wxman57 just posted. Time to get ready

WXMAN57 is usually the guy who throws cold water on your own hype . What he said made me sit up

[jlauderdal]

We are an emotional group.

Lets not get like those crazy Texans , keep your cool Floridians, we can handle an ETA. Don't lose your focus, the election is over, time to prep.

Went to Publix last night, it was a ghost town.

good work, this afternoon is the time to get supplies unless you like waiting in lines, I bought gas this morning, nada at the station, it was great

[WeatherEmperor]

12z Euro




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[jlauderdal]

For those doubting please go to Etas other thread and see what our very own wxman57 just posted. Time to get ready

WXMAN57 is usually the guy who throws cold water on your own hype . What he said made me sit up

John Morales is as even-keeled as they come

John Morales
@JohnMoralesNBC6
·
39m
The chance for tropical storm force winds in #Miami climbed to 29% today, while it’s 40% at Marathon in the Middle #FLKeys. On the dirty side of an expanding wind field, an isolated tornado can’t be ruled out.

However, the biggest threat continues to be excessive rain & floods.

[jlauderdal]

12z Euro

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20201106/596a72ccbaf98ce317c60e8ec750c66b.jpg


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

That setup knocks out power and in this setup will flood easily...get ready