ATL: ETA - Models

[gatorcane]

12Z Euro saved loop through 96 hours

[AutoPenalti]

12Z Euro saved loop through 96 hours

https://i.postimg.cc/9f34Jc79/ecmwf-uv850-vort-watl-fh0-96-2.gif

What the heck kind of WSW bend is that...?

[Weatherboy1]

Euro looks to be about 70-80 miles NNE of last run. Almost landfalling in the Everglades on turn to the NW vs. last run down between Cuba and lower Keys. NHC almost guaranteed to shift track into far southern mainland FL at next update now

[Spacecoast]

Very windy for Central Florida...

[SFLcane]

[caneseddy]

NAVGEM also South Florida landfall heading NNW.. exiting just north of Tampa Bay and then doing a loop and second landfall in Big Bend area

NAM also has landfall in South Florida heading NNW and exiting out over Tampa Bay

[TheStormExpert]

Euro looks to be about 70-80 miles NNE of last run. Almost landfalling in the Everglades on turn to the NW vs. last run down by lower Keys. NHC almost guaranteed to shift track into far southern mainland FL at next update now

Compared to 06z I believe it’s the same.

[Gums]

Salute!

From an experienced 'cane vet, looks like a ridge over east coast could help steer the storm more westerly and not back to The Big Easy or here to Redneck Riviera/Baja Alabama.

I remember Kate in November of 85, and we dodged the bullet over west of PC. But no forecast cold front to help with this puppy. Getting gas, poptarts and beer now. Least a break from the election circus on TV, huh?

Gums sends...

[chaser1]

Right, good luck finding THAT in the 'ol history books LOL

Hurricane King almost perfect analog. Happened late October...

Funny, that was the discussion we had on S2K about 3 days ago; the slingshot from NW Carib to the Fl Straits and then a hard left into SE Fl.
King is definitely the analog.

Correct, King would be the perfect analogue although I should have been more clear because I assumed we were speaking in terms of "November".

[chaser1]

Very windy for Central Florida...
https://i.ibb.co/cv3QNYT/Capture115a.jpg

Nope, you're looking at wind barbs from an 850mb map (not a surface map or forecast)

[wzrgirl1]

We are an emotional group.

Lets not get like those crazy Texans , keep your cool Floridians, we can handle an ETA. Don't lose your focus, the election is over, time to prep.

Went to Publix last night, it was a ghost town.

So did I. But they did have extra water out.

[chaser1]

Was I correct in seeing the EURO depicting a 993 mb? Also FWIW, the 12Z GFS appeared weaker then prior runs. I'm just not overly impressed with present sat appearance or seeing enough from the models to feel confident that Eta "will" be a hurricane on approach to S. Florida. Could happen but to me that seems less then 50/50 atm. I would agree that a potential track does appear increasingly likely to landfall some part of Florida or the Keys though.

[Spacecoast]

Very windy for Central Florida...
https://i.ibb.co/cv3QNYT/Capture115a.jpg

Nope, you're looking at wind barbs from an 850mb map (not a surface map or forecast)

Oops, sorry about that.

Yes, you are correct. Thank you for the clarifcation.

[Blown Away]

12z Guidance... At 12:00 the NHC had Eta at 26.9N/86.9W moving NNE... I see (2) camps, the NHC track/Euro more N now and W near FL and GFS group track more S now and E with SFL E side landfall... I think recon confirming where the developing center is now will give us a better idea down the road...

[psyclone]

Very windy for Central Florida...
https://i.ibb.co/cv3QNYT/Capture115a.jpg

Nope, you're looking at wind barbs from an 850mb map (not a surface map or forecast)

Oops, sorry about that.

Yes, you are correct. Thank you for the clarifcation.

That would still translate to windy weather at the surface.

[gatorcane]

18Z guidance.

Not one model shows a hurricane and nearly all track south and west of the peninsula. But given the subtropical structure of the storm, and the tight pressure gradient with building high pressure, effects would be felt far from the center.

[St0rmTh0r]

It was always unlikely Florida would escape this hellacious season without any significant impacts. Its fun to talk about Florida shields but the law of averages always wins out.

[Blown Away]

18Z guidance.

Not one model shows a hurricane and nearly all track south and west of the peninsula. But given the subtropical structure of the storm, and the tight pressure gradient with building high pressure, effects would be felt far from the center.

https://i.postimg.cc/RF65ZJd6/29-L-tracks-18z.png
https://i.postimg.cc/fynFW2kp/29-L-intensity-18z.png

Current NHC advisory has Eta through the northern Keys... This map has OFCL way south? I don't think the next advisory has come out? Little puzzled by this map...

[SFLcane]

18Z guidance.

Not one model shows a hurricane and nearly all track south and west of the peninsula. But given the subtropical structure of the storm, and the tight pressure gradient with building high pressure, effects would be felt far from the center.

https://i.postimg.cc/RF65ZJd6/29-L-tracks-18z.png
https://i.postimg.cc/fynFW2kp/29-L-intensity-18z.png

Oof... lol there goes your hurricane watches.

[caneseddy]

18Z guidance.

Not one model shows a hurricane and nearly all track south and west of the peninsula. But given the subtropical structure of the storm, and the tight pressure gradient with building high pressure, effects would be felt far from the center.

https://i.postimg.cc/RF65ZJd6/29-L-tracks-18z.png
https://i.postimg.cc/fynFW2kp/29-L-intensity-18z.png

Current NHC advisory has Eta through the northern Keys... This map has OFCL way south? I don't think the next advisory has come out? Little puzzled by this map...

I’m confused as well because it has the GFS down by the middle/lower Keys when the last run was further north with the HWRF also more north.. don’t see how the OFCL track shifted south...