ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

Classic sign of shear-induced convection with no infeed underneath it - it washes out quickly.

[ConvergenceZone]

As the Met was saying, this only has a few more hours regarding the chance to develop, if not, then it’s toast, and time to move on to the next area

[xironman]

Classic sign of shear-induced convection with no infeed underneath it - it washes out quickly.

there is convergence

[Nimbus]

ASCAT

https://i.ibb.co/YB5Ntr9/Capture.png

Center closing off right near NHC coordinates and latest convective burst.
So does it move NW and "jump" Hispaniola on the east end like latest Euro run seems to suggest?
Realistically its going to need at least overnight to consolidate and nothing low level could survive TS velocity shear north of the big islands..

[MississippiWx]

This looks more and more like a tropical cyclone by each frame. Euro consolidates the area we’ve been looking at this afternoon at ~16N.

[gatorcane]

Looking at the sat loops, looks to be organizing to me with convection blowing up and more rotation that looks circular instead of oblong. Think we are getting close to 92l getting a name. Here we go folks:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... t=vis-swir

[Kazmit]

Euro's solution is making me wonder if this will brush the northern coast of Hispaniola instead of running right through it, sort of like Hurricane Douglas with Hawaii. Of course, Douglas had a well defined center so I'm sure the mechanics are different.

[CM2]

Stupid and dangerous post

[Evil Jeremy]

My guess, the 5pm NHC cone will be right down the spine of Florida for days 4 and 5. Let's see if the East shifts hold through the 18z cycle. It's not a solid trend, yet.

Anyone know if we are still getting that G-IV flight today?

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/hannahschollwx/status/1288473599276457985

[CM2]

So in the meanwhile... I believe we have our core. It's where we've been saying it was AND THE RECON REFUSES TO GO

[floridasun78]

So in the meanwhile... I believe we have our core. It's where we've been saying it was AND THE RECON REFUSES TO GO
https://imgur.com/x1MuI9A

their maybe reason their not checking that area not because dont want go that area nhc telling them what to check remember their need save on gas too

[caneseddy]

My guess, the 5pm NHC cone will be right down the spine of Florida for days 4 and 5. Let's see if the East shifts hold through the 18z cycle. It's not a solid trend, yet.

Anyone know if we are still getting that G-IV flight today?

Agree with you. One run does not make a trend. For all we know all the runs will shift back west to over Florida or to the Gulf

[gatorcane]

Look at the size of this 850MB vorticity!?!

[EquusStorm]

So it's either on the verge of starting to degenerate or rapidly organizing/about to become a tropical storm, and it's headed for ???

Yeah I think I'm fine not being a forecaster right now

[northjaxpro]

I have been extremely busy today, but had a moment to chime in on here with a thought or two. Let us remember, we still do not officially have an established center of circulation YET.

I am not going to be comfortable with any of the models until we have this CoC finally nailed down.

Plus I will wait until whatever becomes of this to see if it can survive the Hispaniola hurdle to see how it all evolves.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1288549517726539783

[Aric Dunn]

That curved band of deepening convection on the WEST and SW/ S sides is very interesting..

[Hammy]

This has been closed off for about the last 12 hours and is already a tropical storm if the plane would actually fly around 13-14N, that's where the west winds are--ASCAT even confirms this. Not sure why they're waiting for a low to form in the northern portion when there's already one to the south.

[northjaxpro]

That curved band of deepening convection on the WEST and SW/ S sides is very interesting..

I thought and posted earlier this morning and I have and still believe that the center of circulation is on the southwestern side or very near there of the convective mass.

I think when Recon FINALLY closes this thing off, I feel it will be a tad SSW of where they think it is currently.

I tell you one thing, this thing is giving me a major headache. I am growing a bit weary with this waiting game for sure...