ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Weatherboy1]

Good morning! Just as I thought it might Yesterday evening, 13 seems to be getting its act together now. The whole “two centers, separated notably from each other” thing appears to be ending, with the SE convection/MLC dying off and NW Center/LLC taking charge. Will need some confirmation from the first visual satellite shots, but if this trend continues I wouldn’t be surprised to see this make TS status by 11 am

That wouldn't be good for florida

No it wouldn’t ... which is why as a encouraging as it was to see the overnight shift SW in the models, that appears dependent on 13 staying relatively weak for a longer period of time. IF 13 stacks/intensifies sooner, then I see it easily passing north of the GA islands ... and threat shifting further N toward FL peninsula down the road.

[northjaxpro]

The Fujiwara effect between TD 13 and TD 14 is going to play very significant role in the medium term.

[eastcoastFL]

We might have a Tropical Storm

Wow, winds are up quite a bit from last night

[SFLcane]

Good morning! Just as I thought it might Yesterday evening, 13 seems to be getting its act together now. The whole “two centers, separated notably from each other” thing appears to be ending, with the SE convection/MLC dying off and NW Center/LLC taking charge. Will need some confirmation from the first visual satellite shots, but if this trend continues I wouldn’t be surprised to see this make TS status by 11 am

Recon is currently investigating TD 13 so we will see if the circulation has gotten any better organized.

[eastcoastFL]

Looks like recon is finding FL winds higher than last nights mission. I I don’t see any significant pressure drops yet

[NDG]

Interaction with the Leeward Islands tonight should get that surface circulation going later today/tonight.

[wxman57]

Still not finding any circulation. Little swirl west of the convection on visible. Those stronger winds don't look like part of any circulation. Straight-line winds in squalls. Even tropical waves can produce such winds. System is being hit by strong SW wind shear. Observations across the northern islands just 80 mi west of that swirl indicate north wind 5 kts.

[Blown Away]

TD13 looks a little healthier on satellite now, not sure of the low level health. Nice little spin near 18N/59.5W. Maybe slowed a bit?

[stormwatcher95]

[jlauderdal]

:uarrow: Great early morning discussion and analysis Shell Mound, and Jlauderdal.

Thanks, it was time to get this board back on track and give the mods a break, they were working OT the last 24 hours keeping this forum down the middle . So Shell Mound isnt nuts but the idea does need a really deep system to verify and what we see this morning, it has a shot..the models can overdo ridges, we have seen that plenty of times.

[SFLcane]

Still just a strong wave apparently. Even tw’s can produce TS winds.

[Extratropical94]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_NOAA2-0213A-CYCLONE.png

We might have a Tropical Storm

Classical tropical wave wind pattern. I guess the forecasters at the NHC are hesitant to upgrade this because it looks more like a wave than a TC...
We would probably be looking at advisories with 40-45kts if it was a PTC instead of a TC.

[NDG]

Plenty of TS force winds found by the recon on the NE quadrant, once it gets a well defined surface circulation later today/tonight it will be upgraded to a Tropical Storm.
Once the mid shear relaxes over it it should start its strengthening north of the G.A.

[eastcoastFL]

Still just a strong wave apparently. Even tw’s can produce TS winds.

What did you see ? Nhc still had a TD at 5. Did recon not find a closed center?

[Cat5James]

TD13 is certainly looking healthier this morning

[eastcoastFL]

https://imgur.com/pfr3S2w

Clouds look to be expanding and filling in nicely

[northjaxpro]

GIve it time folks. I think TD 13 will get its act together within the next 24-36 hours.

However, the Fujiwara /Binary interaction with TD 14 will play a significant role with TD 13 both with intensity and track. Some models make TD 14 a potent hurricane, and if that occurs, shear could be a potential problem on TD 13 down the road. Also, a stronger TD 14 may influence a more NW trajectory with TD 13 as well.

A very, very intriguing and rare situation to see this phenomenal situation in our corner of the world taking shape in the GOM in the medium term.

[toad strangler]

Once again it needs to be noted, per Levi, that any real organization structurally IF THAT EVEN HAPPENS isn't supposed to commence until some time tonight when 13 is beyond the LA's

[AutoPenalti]

Recon has yet to find a closed center, but it seems to have pulled North or am I seeing things

Either way, models will struggle to forecast landfall with no center.

[MJGarrison]

Is this a situation where a stronger system ends up more north?
Just wondering if the land interaction is reinforcing the “south-ness” of the track and a stronger storm will trend more north.


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