ATL: IOTA - Remnants - Discussion

[wx98]

I forgot the image!
Only 1 wind barb is below 10 knots
https://s8.gifyu.com/images/Really-tiny-eye.png

How does that indicate anything about the eye getting smaller? It’s already on the small side anyway.

It can get slightly smaller or larger over time right now.

That wasn’t an answer. I was generally curious. But ok...

[kevin]

I think they'll keep it as a cat 5 for now and wait for the next recon plane in order to possibly downgrade it to a cat 4 before landfall if the new plane also doesn't measure 137+ kt winds.

[wx98]

I think they'll keep it as a cat 5 for now and wait for the next recon plane in order to possibly downgrade it to a cat 4 before landfall if the new plane also doesn't measure 137+ kt winds.

I think they will too. Post-season is the time to get it right scientifically.

[Iceresistance]

There was a secondary increase in wind by Recon outside the eye, was it a max wind band or a secondary eyewall developing?

[wxman57]

Yeah I didn’t expect to see 140 knots that pass so not surprised. The RFQ is still the NW so that should be stronger than the NE side. I was surprised by the SE eyewall being the strongest so far.

Pretty slow west movement, so anywhere on the north side may have max wind. Could even be on the SE side, depending on where the heaviest squalls have rotated.

[wxman57]

Looks like they're keeping it at 140 for now

31L IOTA 201116 1800 13.5N 82.3W ATL 140 918

Until we get data from the NW quad, that’s a safe estimate to go with.

Plane made its first pass NW-SE. NE quad had 115 kts (118 kts second pass). SE had 132 kts on the first pass. Max FL wind 145 kts so far. NE quad was 125-130 kts. It's certainly possible winds are 135-140 kts, but any 140kt winds are very isolated and hard for the plane to find. Pressure down just a tad to 919 mb.

[GCANE]

Eye is still 12nm wide.
Borderline pinhole

[underthwx]

Lack of SFMR or FL wind data to support 140 kts would indicate this is no longer Cat 5. Still an incredibly intense high-end Category 4.

Good. We got a crazy, record breaking storm... now I hope it implodes before landfall. They need a break down there.

For sure Buck

[supercane4867]

Very clear concentric eyewall signal on the fresh AMSR pass

[SouthDadeFish]

The deepest convection is located in the southern eyewall. That's probably why recon is finding stronger winds within the southern part of the vortex.

 https://twitter.com/MikeFischerWx/status/1328428442300407808

[kevin]

It looks like a perfectly shaped storm. Were it not for recon I would have assumed continuous strengthening over the last few hours. Luckily that doesn't seem to be the case, but I don't think we can rule out some strengthening before landfall. However, even if it weakens I don't think it'll fall below 125 kts before landfall so whatever happens a catastrophic landfall unfortunately seems unavoidable.

[ElectricStorm]

As mentioned by others earlier I think they'll keep it a 5 at this advisory. I think the recon hit the bullseye earlier today to find that tiny area of Cat 5 winds and since the pressure has remained steady since then I think there's a chance they missed that tiny area on this mission. Microwave shows that there may be a chance for an ERC before landfall so it likely won't be a 5 for all that much longer anyway, which is a tad bit of good news for CA but there's not any difference between a 130kt landfall or a 140kt landfall. What an impressive storm overall. For sure was a Cat 5 and may still be for a little while longer. Really praying for those folks about to experience their second Cat 4+ hit in 2 weeks...

[cheezyWXguy]

Very clear concentric eyewall signal on the fresh AMSR pass

https://i.imgur.com/hLEKrEV.jpg

Agreed, no question. The flattening of the gradient would also explain the decrease in winds despite consistent pressure. One thing I note though is how narrow the moat is between them, practically nonexistent, which would explain the lack of a significant double wind maximum. Could this be a meld in progress?

[NDG]

I just don't see it weakening much if any over the next few hours before landfall without an EWRC starting.

[kevin]

After we (and I assume the NHC themselves as well) were a bit frustrated by the recon issues with Eta, I think this is also a time to praise the NHC for their excellent recon coverage of Iota. A constant and demanding schedule of one flight every 6 hours with a plane in the air at pretty much all times and no issues whatsoever except for one unfortunate bird strike.

[aspen]

This will be the final recon flight into Iota. I can’t believe how well recon has done with this storm compared to Eta — minimal connection issues, an every flight runs like clockwork and as planned.

[wx98]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Iota Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020
400 PM EST Mon Nov 16 2020

...CATEGORY 5 IOTA CLOSING IN ON NICARAGUA...
...EXPECTED TO BRING CATASTROPHIC WINDS, LIFE-THREATENING STORM
SURGE, AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL TO CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.6N 82.7W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM ESE OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA
ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM SSE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...919 MB...27.14 INCHES

[aspen]

After we (and I assume the NHC themselves as well) were a bit frustrated by the recon issues with Eta, I think this is also a time to praise the NHC for their excellent recon coverage of Iota. A constant and demanding schedule of one flight every 6 hours with a plane in the air at pretty much all times and no issues whatsoever except for one unfortunate bird strike.

One of the planes hit a bird?

[kevin]

After we (and I assume the NHC themselves as well) were a bit frustrated by the recon issues with Eta, I think this is also a time to praise the NHC for their excellent recon coverage of Iota. A constant and demanding schedule of one flight every 6 hours with a plane in the air at pretty much all times and no issues whatsoever except for one unfortunate bird strike.

One of the planes hit a bird?

Yes the flight earlier today that eventually measured cat 5 winds hit a bird during take-off so they had to switch planes. That's why that mission was delayed by ~1 hour.

[ElectricStorm]

After we (and I assume the NHC themselves as well) were a bit frustrated by the recon issues with Eta, I think this is also a time to praise the NHC for their excellent recon coverage of Iota. A constant and demanding schedule of one flight every 6 hours with a plane in the air at pretty much all times and no issues whatsoever except for one unfortunate bird strike.

One of the planes hit a bird?

Yes the flight earlier today that eventually measured a cat 5 winds hit a bird during take-off so they had to switch planes. That's why that mission was delayed by ~1 hour.

I was wondering why there were 2 mission 6s listed on tropical tidbits. I thought they just got the flight number wrong or something