ATL: LAURA - Models

[Kingarabian]

00z model suite will hopefully bring clarity.

[Blown Away]

Wow, 18z HWRF/HMON go way west into Central GOM... They should crash into TD14 if the NHC is correct with TD14’s track.

[NDG]

The problem with 13 is going to be 14. I could see 13 developing around Florida if there were no other storms but the fact 14 is so big in size and has such a big outflow right and will be spinning In the Gulf is going to make it tough.

The problem with that is that I don't see any models giving favorable UL winds to TD 14 once it gets into the gulf, nothing southerly shear as it starts bumping into the UL trough to the north.

[Steve]

Cat 3

[Steve]

Here's the end of the run and not looking good for the coast

[supercane4867]

HWRF keeps the circulation fairly compact. Looks like Elena 85.

[kevin mathis]

HWRF keeps the circulation fairly compact. Looks like Elena 85.

https://i.imgur.com/si5b95Z.png

I SEE A PROBLEM HERE, but maybe I'm grabbing at straws here
Wouldn't we see at least the eastern fringes of TD 14 in this simulated sat pic? The model has absolutely ZERO interaction with what may be a formidable TC in the West Central Gulf at the same time according to this simulation. Interaction with TD 14 would almost guarantee some more noticeable northerly component to 13's movement once near the Florida Peninsula and Eastern Gulf. The beginnings of Fujiwara effect

[Nimbus]

TD 14 might be helped along inland by the southerly shear from the trough before 13 gets close enough to be effected. It would still follow 14's weakness north.

[Hurricaneman]

The HMON and HWRF are already bad at initialization, recon found the low at 17.6N under the new convection while those models initialize at 16N which is 75+ miles too far south

[Steve]

Speeding up that HWRF run, I could make a really good argument for it landfalling in Mobile County.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 018&fh=108

[Hurricaneman]

The HMON and HWRF are already bad at initialization, recon found the low at 17.6N under the new convection while those models initialize at 16N which is 75+ miles too far south

Oops looked at the 12z version, the 18z is still 20 to 25 miles too far south which could make a difference

[SFLcane]

18z track guidance...

[BobHarlem]

0z early models:
TVCN shifts south basically to Key West from it's 18z Boca. Basically don't expect much to happen until late Saturday according to this.


0z intensity:

[caneseddy]

 https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1296589938658611202

[NDG]

We here in east central FL looking like we will be saved by the good 'ole Bermuda Ridge.

[NDG]

The HMON and HWRF are already bad at initialization, recon found the low at 17.6N under the new convection while those models initialize at 16N which is 75+ miles too far south

Oops looked at the 12z version, the 18z is still 20 to 25 miles too far south which could make a difference

Not when the same HWRF forecasts the CoC to jump around for at least the next 36 hrs as it generally tracks WNW.

[Steve]

We here in east central FL looking like we will be saved by the good 'ole Bermuda Ridge.

https://i.imgur.com/CCWKpIu.png

That series of plots indicate the biggest threat would be Perdido Key, Ono Island, Orange Beach, Foley and Gulf Shores area.

[sma10]

We here in east central FL looking like we will be saved by the good 'ole Bermuda Ridge.

https://i.imgur.com/CCWKpIu.png

A casual reminder that 96hr plot locations tend to be wrong ... but yes, the trend has been favorable

[SFLcane]

[ConvergenceZone]

AT least the "out to sea" talk can finally stop based upon that consolidation of models. It ain't happening...