ATL: DELTA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

Strongest wind readings since recon returned. FL back around 100kts.

I think 95 kt is the best intensity estimate right now.

[tiger_deF]

The Hype from this storm seems to have died down pretty quickly...

Which I don't understand, yeah it's not going to be a Wilma repeat but asides from a temporary core collapse the storm is still intimidating, and the conditions ahead of it pretty much up to the northern gulf are incredibly optimal

[sikkar]

No weather radar for Cancun?

[ElectricStorm]

The Hype from this storm seems to have died down pretty quickly...

Which I don't understand, yeah it's not going to be a Wilma repeat but asides from a temporary core collapse the storm is still intimidating, and the conditions ahead of it pretty much up to the northern gulf are incredibly optimal

IMO this could easily get back to 145mph or even stronger in the southern and central gulf... Without the pinhole so it won't collapse easily like it did today. Very concerning for the gulf coast as the cool water does not extend far beyond the coast.

[northjaxpro]

Delta is stiill a major hurricane and it still will be a very potential severe problem for the Yucatan and potrntially the Northern Gulf Coast.

[Keldeo1997]

 https://twitter.com/splillo/status/1313689103741804544

[ConvergenceZone]

The Hype from this storm seems to have died down pretty quickly...

Which I don't understand, yeah it's not going to be a Wilma repeat but asides from a temporary core collapse the storm is still intimidating, and the conditions ahead of it pretty much up to the northern gulf are incredibly optimal

I think it's because nobody expected it to rapidly decrease in strength as much as it has....It got everyone off guard.
I'm still thinking a low end Cat 2 at landfall in Yucatan based on the wind speeds they are finding now.. It's really hard to say when it gets in the Gulf what it's going to do...

[ozonepete]

Regardless of its exact intensity, any winds of strong hurricane force are VERY dangerous and will do severe damage. Look what Sally did and it wasn't a major hurricane.

True, but you really don't get to the frame-house-ripping-apart, wind alone can kill you in your shelter stuff until the upper end of Category 4, and that mostly with the gusts into the 5 range. It's only the very rare storms like Andrew that can do that over a relatively large area of the core's path.

In a category 1 the wind alone can kill you in your shelter if a tree falls on it.

[CrazyC83]

Regardless of its exact intensity, any winds of strong hurricane force are VERY dangerous and will do severe damage. Look what Sally did and it wasn't a major hurricane.

True, but you really don't get to the frame-house-ripping-apart, wind alone can kill you in your shelter stuff until the upper end of Category 4, and that mostly with the gusts into the 5 range. It's only the very rare storms like Andrew that can do that over a relatively large area of the core's path.

In a category 1 the wind alone can kill you in your shelter if a tree falls on it.

That happens easily in even tropical storm conditions.

[ElectricStorm]

The Hype from this storm seems to have died down pretty quickly...

Which I don't understand, yeah it's not going to be a Wilma repeat but asides from a temporary core collapse the storm is still intimidating, and the conditions ahead of it pretty much up to the northern gulf are incredibly optimal

I think it's because nobody expected it to rapidly decrease in strength as much as it has....It got everyone off guard.
I'm still thinking a low end Cat 2 at landfall in Yucatan based on the wind speeds they are finding now.. It's really hard to say when it gets in the Gulf what it's going to do...

I would say prepare for what the NHC is showing... A Cat 3 landfall on the gulf coast

[edu2703]

The Hype from this storm seems to have died down pretty quickly...

To be honest, a hurricane does not generate much hype when it's about to make a landfall outside the US, unless it's a strong Cat 4/5 one. The hype will eventually come back when Delta re-strengthens back to a major hurricane in the gulf, which seems likely, and heads towards the northern gulf coast.

[ConvergenceZone]

Which I don't understand, yeah it's not going to be a Wilma repeat but asides from a temporary core collapse the storm is still intimidating, and the conditions ahead of it pretty much up to the northern gulf are incredibly optimal

I think it's because nobody expected it to rapidly decrease in strength as much as it has....It got everyone off guard.
I'm still thinking a low end Cat 2 at landfall in Yucatan based on the wind speeds they are finding now.. It's really hard to say when it gets in the Gulf what it's going to do...

I would say prepare for what the NHC is showing... A Cat 3 landfall on the gulf coast

They are showing that now, but that can always change.....

[SconnieCane]

The Hype from this storm seems to have died down pretty quickly...

To be honest, a hurricane does not generate much hype when it's about to make a landfall outside the US, unless it's a strong Cat 4/5 one. The hype will eventually come back when Delta re-strengthens back to a major hurricane in the gulf, which seems likely, and heads towards the northern gulf coast.

I think a lot of us, myself included, were fully geeked out to witness a pinhole bomb-out to Cat. 5 over sub-900-supporting waters, the likes of which hasn't been seen in the recon-equipped Atlantic for 15 years. However the atmosphere had other plans...

[ElectricStorm]

I think it's because nobody expected it to rapidly decrease in strength as much as it has....It got everyone off guard.
I'm still thinking a low end Cat 2 at landfall in Yucatan based on the wind speeds they are finding now.. It's really hard to say when it gets in the Gulf what it's going to do...

I would say prepare for what the NHC is showing... A Cat 3 landfall on the gulf coast

They are showing that now, but that can always change.....

True it can. But it is worth noting that I is going up. It was forecast to be a Cat 1/2 yesterday, now a 3. I will likely weaken before landfall, but probably not as much as some think it might. Now obviously things like EWRC's will make it complicated but a major landfall is certainly very possible

[storminabox]

Storms this season have been so incredibly fickle. During many instances, detriments have appeared last minute and caught everyone by surprise! Models have been TERRIBLE picking these up!

[ElectricStorm]

Storms this season have been so incredibly fickle. During many instances, detriments have appeared last minute and caught everyone by surprise! Models have been TERRIBLE picking these up!

Models have been bad at pretty much everything this year lol

[Craters]

You know, I can't help but look at the water-vapor channels once in a while, and it's pretty apparent that the eastern environment at both the lower



and mid-levels



isn't exactly sloppy wet. The shear has also been coming from the east. Since common wisdom says that CAT 4 and CAT 5 storms need near-perfect environments to maintain their health, having a whole mess of dry to semi-dry air like that being pushed by a respectable wind can't be an ideal situation -- particularly for a relatively small system like Delta. I was looking for outflow boundaries when there were still visible images to scope out, but there was so much mid- and upper-level cloud activity on the western half that I just couldn't see anything that low.

I get the WISHE ideas that Larry and GCANE were talking about last night, and maybe that enthalpy transfer could nullify the lack of humidity. But that should only happen for the lowest-level air, I would think, not for the air that isn't in "contact" with the surface.

If all of that dry air shouldn't be a factor, I'd appreciate hearing why that might be.

Thanks!

[eastcoastFL]

Is Delta pulling the remnants of gamma into its inflow?

Yes, that process started about ~12 hours ago. Here are the last few analysis images from the GFS + 24 hour forecast showing this evolution:
https://i.imgur.com/59S6SmC.gif

Thanks for the break down, I haven’t been following as closely as normal due to work. I’m praying this thing weakens significantly before it reaches the gulf...

[NDG]

Looks like or it appears that a larger eyewall is redeveloping.

[hurricanehunter69]

Okay, so we are on advisory # 9 and the forecast track has shifted west on every single one since it's inception. No surprise that right after the NOAA G-IV made it's first run that the track shifted back to the east. The 5pm advisory had Delta making a Gulf coast landfall at 92.9. The 11pm advisory has made it's very first EAST shift to 92.2. Curious to see if the east shifts continue....? My money is on that they do.