ATL: SALLY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[eastcoastFL]

No lack of convection tonight

[ElectricStorm]

https://twitter.com/AlexJLamers/status/1305256441905905664?s=20

Not good when the rainfall threat is compared to those storms

[eastcoastFL]

[stormhunter7]

Looks like a Mid level center came in from the SE and is very close to low level center.. wrapping and venting around center. Lots of lightning it appears. Recon went through center recently. Be interesting to see if any pressure changes yet.

[NevadaFan18]

Thoughts on the latest recon pass:
-Winds are definitely higher than last pass ~2 hours ago, shows Sally is strengthening from a wind perspective somewhat
-The MSLP gradient is still gradual which suggests a “broad” center, which should inhibit RI (for the short-term).
-There was also a greater dew-point Depression compared to the last pass which shows the surroundings in the core are becoming more favorable for strengthening.
-The SW side is still wind-lacking, until things become symmetrical, significant strengthening is unlikely.
-However, the time seems to be counting down until this inevitably takes advantage of the favorable environment and becomes a hurricane, as suggested by the latest model guidance.

[tailgater]

The center is now squarely centered in the coldest cloud tops, almost due west motion attm. I’d like to stay up and watch it tonight but tomorrow night could be equally interesting, I don’t wish it on anyone but as they say, you don’t have to go home but you can’t come here.

[bella_may]

By far one of the best looking tropical storms I’ve seen

[CaneCurious]

The center is now squarely centered in the coldest cloud tops, almost due west motion attm. I’d like to stay up and watch it tonight but tomorrow night could be equally interesting, I don’t wish it on anyone but as they say, you don’t have to go home but you can’t come here.

Looking at WV, it looks like it’s back to moving west. I couldn’t tell on infrared.

[BRweather]

Hmmmmmmm, Sally was forecasted to move west-northwest during this time. Not sure if this will play a role in the landfall location, but interesting.

[869MB]

https://twitter.com/NightriderFL/status/1305336770033315842

A five degree temperature difference between the inner core and outside of the eye. Not bad at all.

I have a bad feeling this may go through RI and reach category 3 by landfall, what do you think?

Under the right favorable atmospheric conditions, unfortunately RI will always be a possibility with these types of storms. Overall, this is not a significant temperature difference with respect to more formidable cyclones, but it is a very respectable temperature difference considering the internal structure of Sally earlier in the day. So this isn’t necessarily a sign of RI but more of sign that further intensification will be favorable within the next few hours - everything else being equal.

[Monsoonjr99]

Woah Sally. Went from an exposed center earlier today to plenty of convection and possibly an eye now.

[cfisher]

The warming cloud tops adjacent to deep convection near the center is due to subsidence, indicative of falling pressures.

[tailgater]

Hmmmmmmm, Sally was forecasted to move west-northwest during this time. Not sure if this will play a role in the landfall location, but interesting.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/r ... -SALLY.png

Moving at about 9 mph give or take 1 mph.

[ElectricStorm]

Earlier today this looked like it would struggle to even become a hurricane... Now it looks like it may make a run at a significant one. What a difference even 12 hours in the gulf can make

[Keldeo1997]

 https://twitter.com/WxPatel/status/1305363528551890944

[Chemmers]

Alot off lighting near the coc think this is about to take off

[DucaCane]

Sure looks impressive tonight. Should see an eye soon.
Hate that this has to hit anyone, but hoping for another east shift.

[cfisher]

ADT estimates showing RI now.

2020SEP14 032018 2.4 998.2 34.0 2.4 2.8 3.2
2020SEP14 035018 2.5 997.6 35.0 2.5 2.8 3.3
2020SEP14 042018 2.6 996.5 37.0 2.6 2.9 3.4
2020SEP14 045018 2.8 994.1 41.0 2.8 3.0 3.6

[DucaCane]

ADT estimates showing RI now.

2020SEP14 032018 2.4 998.2 34.0 2.4 2.8 3.2
2020SEP14 035018 2.5 997.6 35.0 2.5 2.8 3.3
2020SEP14 042018 2.6 996.5 37.0 2.6 2.9 3.4
2020SEP14 045018 2.8 994.1 41.0 2.8 3.0 3.6

Significant drop in pressure over a short time. It definitely has the “look” of a storm experiencing RI.
Not a fan of how this is working out. Hoping for a little wind shear.

[PTPatrick]

Derek Ortt on the twitter saying no RI but healthy and steady.