ATL: ISAIAS - Models

[SouthFLTropics]

12z GFS running - through 24 hours

[SconnieCane]

LOL, still has it leapfrog the eastern DR and then hook left.

[Kat5]

Weaker ridge so far.

[SFLcane]

12z GFS stronger might recurve this run.

edit: banked westward @ 42hrs

[Hypercane_Kyle]

12z GFS coming in 10mb stronger.

[TheStormExpert]

Weaker ridge so far.

Nope, definitely stronger ridge than 06z which was already stronger than 00z. The trend the last few GFS runs has been nudging west.

[ColdMiser123]

Stronger ridge than 0z, I think we see landfall this run.

[SFLcane]

12z GFS about the same ...

[Blown Away]

12z GFS to 72 hours... Much stronger near FL, maybe a slight W shift near the closest approach to FL...

[sma10]

Also, looks like while Isaias keeps us in suspense crawling up the FL coast, Josephine approaches NE Leewards

[lhpfish]

From hour 30-42 of the 12z run theres a good shift west over Andros, then the system heads NNW over West End.

[HurricaneFrances04]

Getting Matthew flashbacks, as far as track nearing Florida goes.

[DestinHurricane]

Ridge getting stronger run after run. Florida is NOT in the clear!

[AdamFirst]

Trap door at the last minute by Andros saves SE FL once again

Let's see what the Canadian, UKMET and Euro have to say

[ColdMiser123]

Morehead City, NC landfall on the GFS as a strong Cat 1/weak Cat 2.

[Blown Away]

06z HWRF-Para... .5 degree W shift near Florida... Distance from WPB to Grand Bahama @67 miles.

[gatorcane]

Slightly stronger ridge yet again on the GFS. Remember what it did with Irma. Even under 72 hours it kept shifting a little west each run. Went from just east of Florida to the lower keys at the “last minute.”

[Michele B]

Also, looks like while Isaias keeps us in suspense crawling up the FL coast, Josephine approaches NE Leewards

Yeah, this is the thing:

Whenever there IS something "out there" to focus on, TWC guys tend to get Soooo focused on THAT, that they never show us the whole Atlantic basin so we can see for ourselves if something is coming down the pike behind it. This is what I find most fascinating...watching how the storms interact off each other when one comes in behind where a previous storm has been. Does the fact that it was just a wave mean nothing? Is the water temp even a degree or two lower? Does that matter? Or are the steering currents SO different by that time that they really do not interact/impact at all? Those are the types of things I find fascinating now. It USED TO BE "just" hurricanes," but after almost 60 years of watching/studying them (as an amateur, or course!), I've started looking at other factors involved in their formation/path/strengthening patterns, etc.

Anyway, it's like they're so thrilled to have a substantial storm to drone on about for 24 hours at a time, that they forget more storms are going to be forming further out!

HELLO?!?!?! It's not even August yet! There's going to be a LOT going on out there! Let us see it!

[Cataegis96]

GFS track at the moment seems fairly reasonable. Regarding the intensity forecast, I still would like to wait and see for another day or so, but I can see why the GFS intensifies Isaias as much as it does once it clears the Bahamas based on upper level maps and the warm SSTs of 29-30C along the Gulf Stream.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/btangyWx/status/1288863534496067590