ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[supercane4867]

Super Typhoon?

The structure is much closer to a west pacific typhoon than a standard Atlantic hurricane.

I see, but that did not make sense at first.

Actually, not even the WPAC produces this kind of CDO very often. Eta resembles a SPAC system more than any other basin. SPAC cyclones are known to produce insanely cold cloudtops.

[Aric Dunn]

This thing is bombing out. I am strongly leaning toward cat 5 by the time recon gets there. Folks need to understand this was only a tropical storm yesterday. Just an absurd rate of intensification.

It (probably) won't hit Wilmas pressure falls, but it might manage to beat or tie Wilmas record for fastest TS to Cat 5.

where hours count.. the failed recon mission earlier may have jepordized that.

[Cunxi Huang]

Raw T# is now 7.4.

Dear goodness!

It cant get to 7.8 right like the WPAC beast?! thats just too much for this part of the Atlantic!

Raw can go as high as it wants even if only ONE frame satisfies. Goni had CI and FT both at 7.6 on CIMSS ADT.

[Iceresistance]

Latest IR frames:

Eye temperature: around -23C

Eye wall temperature: down to -100C

[CrazyC83]

150 mph winds at the intermediate. Probably would have gone higher if Recon was not coming.

The 934 mb estimated pressure is the lowest of the season (albeit with an asterisk for the next couple hours).

[BYG Jacob]

Why is there talk like we know the eye temp when satellites have renowned issues with small eyes like Eta?

Satellites can now resolve pin hole eyes significantly better.

There are still pretty significant issues, and there is no real idea of the eye temp without recon

[supercane4867]

Warm pixels expanding in the eye.

[aspen]

Laura, you had a good run.

[Highteeld]

The structure is much closer to a west pacific typhoon than a standard Atlantic hurricane.

I see, but that did not make sense at first.

Actually, not even the WPAC produces this kind of CDO very often. Eta resembles a SPAC system more than any other basin. SPAC cyclones are known to produce insanely cold cloudtops.

This. WPAC storms will have more pronounced banding features while SPAC tends to have smaller CDO's but larger area of visible ventilation/spin. Eta is more like SPAC

[Iceresistance]

This thing is bombing out. I am strongly leaning toward cat 5 by the time recon gets there. Folks need to understand this was only a tropical storm yesterday. Just an absurd rate of intensification.

It (probably) won't hit Wilmas pressure falls, but it might manage to beat or tie Wilmas record for fastest TS to Cat 5.

where hours count.. the failed recon mission earlier may have jepordized that.

Eta is at it's best it's ever been.

Recon is now flying at 264 knots right now.

[cheezyWXguy]

Eye temp on sat is breaking into the positives. How high does it need to be to make 8.0 raw?

[Aric Dunn]

finally clearling out.

[Iceresistance]

Warm pixels expanding in the eye.

https://i.imgur.com/5aTK8gD.gif

Down to -10C!?

[supercane4867]

150 mph winds at the intermediate. Probably would have gone higher if Recon was not coming.

FWIW, Maria was only at 130mph for the advisory before recon arrived shortly after and confirmed 140kt intensity.

[Iceresistance]

Eye temp on sat is breaking into the positives. How high does it need to be to make 8.0 raw?

I don't know. but the eyewall is down to -105C

[ClarCari]

I called that right! In my mind I even guessed the 934mb pressure right!

It’s insane that Laura was ONLY about 10 friggin weeks ago..

I actually almost forgot the season started off using actual names!

[Cunxi Huang]

7:00 PM EST Mon Nov 2
Location: 14.4°N 82.4°W
Moving: WSW at 9 mph
Min pressure: 934 mb
Max sustained: 150 mph

[Kingarabian]

The structure is much closer to a west pacific typhoon than a standard Atlantic hurricane.

I see, but that did not make sense at first.

Actually, not even the WPAC produces this kind of CDO very often. Eta resembles a SPAC system more than any other basin. SPAC cyclones are known to produce insanely cold cloudtops.

The SPAC major hurricanes do have insane cloud tops but the WPAC can have a couple of Eta esque systems in a year. Just an insane amount of OHC in that basin.

[CrazyC83]

This thing is bombing out. I am strongly leaning toward cat 5 by the time recon gets there. Folks need to understand this was only a tropical storm yesterday. Just an absurd rate of intensification.

It (probably) won't hit Wilmas pressure falls, but it might manage to beat or tie Wilmas record for fastest TS to Cat 5.

where hours count.. the failed recon mission earlier may have jepordized that.

If Recon finds a real whopper, then post-analysis would up the intensities at 18Z and 00Z.

[Kingarabian]

Eye temp on sat is breaking into the positives. How high does it need to be to make 8.0 raw?

I don't know. but the eyewall is down to -105C

+15/+20 ish I would assume