ATL: LAURA - Models

[DestinHurricane]

Looks like the Euro is starting to cave. It will be interesting when it has the new recon data fed in.

[ColdMiser123]

Significant number of 6z EPS members now show a hurricane in the Gulf Day 4-6.

[NDG]

Looks like the Euro is starting to cave. It will be interesting when it has the new recon data fed in.

Yep, but it wouldn't be surprised if it goes back to no development, it has been so bad with both of the current systems.

[MetroMike]

This is becoming quite concerning for the north central gulf coast

I would not be too concerned atm as tracks will change by the 5 day window just as it did trending away from the lower peninsula.

[Frank P]

This is becoming quite concerning for the north central gulf coast

I would not be too concerned atm as tracks will change by the 5 day window just as it did trending away from the lower peninsula.

I look for trends in the modeling, att the trend is to the west, EURO ensembles just shifted west and south, so yeah, I think the NGOM should be concerned as well as everyone else in upper gulf coast region from TX to FL... will they change of course, but will they change enough not to be a significant concern for all Gulf Coast residents, me thinks not.. it’s late August.. not the month you want a developing system in the gulf.. so be ready!

[DestinHurricane]

Looks like the Euro is starting to cave. It will be interesting when it has the new recon data fed in.

Yep, but it wouldn't be surprised if it goes back to no development, it has been so bad with both of the current systems.

Per NHC pros, Laura has already formed. If Euro dissipates without land interaction something is bad wrong.

[Ivanhater]

The models are tightly clustered for 4 to 5 days out. Things could change but somewhere on the north central gulf coast could be hit.

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[cp79]

Let’s be honest. If this thing doesn’t track north of the DR/Cuba, she’s dead. It better get some traction. Euro has been calling for this more than anyone. GFS seems to also be calling for it too now. It’s not gonna survive if it stays the southerly route.

[Evil Jeremy]

Let’s be honest. If this thing doesn’t track north of the DR/Cuba, she’s dead.

Less than a month ago, Isaias ran into DR and somehow emerged slightly more consolidated on the other side.

It really depends on how organized Laura is when it reaches those mountainous terrains. Less organized, less disruption.

[DestinHurricane]

The models are tightly clustered for 4 to 5 days out. Things could change but somewhere on the north central gulf coast could be hit. https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200821/a093c2d4c2f5aa51d2cdef289aba46a0.gif

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Someone between NOLA and Apalachicola will likely get hit. The question is how strong. And lets hope and pray it doesn't shift E a little to PC.

[StPeteMike]

The models are tightly clustered for 4 to 5 days out. Things could change but somewhere on the north central gulf coast could be hit. https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200821/a093c2d4c2f5aa51d2cdef289aba46a0.gif

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Someone between NOLA and Apalachicola will likely get hit. The question is how strong. And lets hope and pray it doesn't shift E a little to PC.

I’m worried about the dreaded right shift with the storms in this area, Charley and Irma.

[LowerAlabamaTider]

Hey everyone newbie to the boards here. 60 year lifelong resident of Mobile, AL, and I have been reading the boards here for as long as I can remember. Decided I would join the party. Great time huh? A year like 2020, and a chance to have two hurricanes in the Gulf at the same time since the early thirties. Wow! Will be watching the models, and reading all of your posts. Have a great Friday All!

[HeeBGBz]

Looks like the Euro is starting to cave. It will be interesting when it has the new recon data fed in.

Yep, but it wouldn't be surprised if it goes back to no development, it has been so bad with both of the current systems.

Per NHC pros, Laura has already formed. If Euro dissipates without land interaction something is bad wrong.

I was wondering if the solar storm that should have reached earth yesterday, is causing glitches?

[cp79]

Let’s be honest. If this thing doesn’t track north of the DR/Cuba, she’s dead.

Less than a month ago, Isaias ran into DR and somehow emerged slightly more consolidated on the other side.

It really depends on how organized Laura is when it reaches those mountainous terrains. Less organized, less disruption.

Yeah but it went over the north and avoided Cuba. Some models have this going over the worst of Hispaniola and then Cuba. I’m not sold she’s gonna come out alive.

[chaser1]

Let’s be honest. If this thing doesn’t track north of the DR/Cuba, she’s dead.

Less than a month ago, Isaias ran into DR and somehow emerged slightly more consolidated on the other side.

It really depends on how organized Laura is when it reaches those mountainous terrains. Less organized, less disruption.

Not to mention any re organizational COC relocation yet to occur. This is far from a well organized established vertical column.

[Nuno]

Let’s be honest. If this thing doesn’t track north of the DR/Cuba, she’s dead.

Less than a month ago, Isaias ran into DR and somehow emerged slightly more consolidated on the other side.

It really depends on how organized Laura is when it reaches those mountainous terrains. Less organized, less disruption.

Yeah but it went over the north and avoided Cuba. Some models have this going over the worst of Hispaniola and then Cuba. I’m not sold she’s gonna come out alive.

It won't take much latitude for Laura to avoid the GA.

[plasticup]

Hey everyone newbie to the boards here. 60 year lifelong resident of Mobile, AL, and I have been reading the boards here for as long as I can remember. Decided I would join the party. Great time huh? A year like 2020, and a chance to have two hurricanes in the Gulf at the same time since the early thirties. Wow! Will be watching the models, and reading all of your posts. Have a great Friday All!

Welcome! An exciting time to join, indeed. Especially for a Gulf Coast resident. Stay safe out there!

[chaser1]

The models are tightly clustered for 4 to 5 days out. Things could change but somewhere on the north central gulf coast could be hit. https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200821/a093c2d4c2f5aa51d2cdef289aba46a0.gif

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

Someone between NOLA and Apalachicola will likely get hit. The question is how strong. And lets hope and pray it doesn't shift E a little to PC.

I’m worried about the dreaded right shift with the storms in this area, Charley and Irma.

This is quite a different steering set up then what was in place for Charlie though. You're right about always needing to heed anything approaching from the south though. Depending on potential interaction between Laura and TD14, I could well see Laura take a bit more northerly turn when entering the Gulf and possibly aim towards the Appalach/Panama City area.

[robbielyn]

The models are tightly clustered for 4 to 5 days out. Things could change but somewhere on the north central gulf coast could be hit. https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200821/a093c2d4c2f5aa51d2cdef289aba46a0.gif

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

Someone between NOLA and Apalachicola will likely get hit. The question is how strong. And lets hope and pray it doesn't shift E a little to PC.

I’m worried about the dreaded right shift with the storms in this area, Charley and Irma.

Charley and Irma had a trough pushing them east

[chaser1]

Hey everyone newbie to the boards here. 60 year lifelong resident of Mobile, AL, and I have been reading the boards here for as long as I can remember. Decided I would join the party. Great time huh? A year like 2020, and a chance to have two hurricanes in the Gulf at the same time since the early thirties. Wow! Will be watching the models, and reading all of your posts. Have a great Friday All!

Welcome 'Tider! Yeah, i'd say you picked a good year to come inside. Grab a rain-coat, we keep the Cyclone Bar fire sprinklers on throughout hurricane season. Kind of sets the mood