ATL: DELTA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

Nice big eye that it had or still has when it made landfall.

[MississippiWx]

Nice big eye that it had or still has when it made landfall.

https://i.imgur.com/rzINLF4.jpg

Couldn't develop a strong and thick eye wall over the highest oceanic heat content in the Atlantic basin. It just needed to move over land to do it. Just goes to show that water temps only mean so much.

[GCANE]

Nice big eye that it had or still has when it made landfall.

https://i.imgur.com/rzINLF4.jpg

Couldn't develop a strong and thick eye wall over the highest oceanic heat content in the Atlantic basin. It just needed to move over land to do it. Just goes to show that water temps only mean so much.

Effect of the very deep cold pool.
Could get pretty strong in the GoM as a result even up to landfall.
COAMPS models the heat exchange of the water with the air very well.
Showing a 940 to 945mb TC on approach.

[Visioen]

What happened in my opinion:

Delta sees land coming and collapses core because you can't hurt what isn't there.
Over the Yucatan, realises this is some nice flat land, might have overreacted a bit.
Whatever, just build a new eye then.

[kevin]

According to Tropical Tidbits the latest recon mission (#8) is already finished without a single center or eyewall pass. Is it because they're not allowed to fly above land? Is there another recon on the way?

[MississippiWx]

According to Tropical Tidbits the latest recon mission is finished without a single center or eyewall pass. Is it because they're not allowed to fly above land? Is there another recon on the way?

The instruments the HH use are not designed to sample winds over land. Also, it's not ideal to fly in Mexican air space.

[PTrackerLA]

Checking in from Lafayette. Cloudy, drizzly and very little breeze. Preparing for a significant hit here with stronger impacts than Lili 2002.

[mcallum177]

Yeah, that could cause a few international dilemmas!

According to Tropical Tidbits the latest recon mission is finished without a single center or eyewall pass. Is it because they're not allowed to fly above land? Is there another recon on the way?

The instruments the HH use are not designed to sample winds over land. Also, it's not ideal to fly in Mexican air space.

[MississippiWx]

Checking in from Lafayette. Cloudy, drizzly and very little breeze. Preparing for a significant hit here with stronger impacts than Lili 2002.

You guys need to borrow the shield MS and the FL Peninsula have been using.

Someone didn't pay the shield bill over in Louisiana. Seriously, though, hope you guys stay safe. As much as I don't want to wish this on anyone else, I hope it stays away from the hard hit area of SW Louisiana.

[ElectricStorm]

My personal prediction for peak in the gulf is 140mph/945mb... We'll see what happens

[kevin]

I'll predict 935 mbar and 135 mph, but of course weakning before its second landfall. I do think there is potential for it to exceed my prediction, but after what happened yesterday I don't feel like making another high-end prediction.

[TallyTracker]

I’m growing more concerned about a significant surge event now that Delta has unwound quite a bit. The greater wind field is going to move a lot of water toward the coast. Those in low-lying areas need to heed the warnings and take this seriously even if they’ve faired well in past storms.

[us89]

According to Tropical Tidbits the latest recon mission is finished without a single center or eyewall pass. Is it because they're not allowed to fly above land? Is there another recon on the way?

The instruments the HH use are not designed to sample winds over land. Also, it's not ideal to fly in Mexican air space.

Not to mention you can't really use dropsondes if they might land on somebody. Recon missions don't do center passes even in US airspace.

[NDG]

Definitely Cancun got hit with a Cat 3 hurricane, but it could had been worst had the tiny eye had not collapsed yesterday evening.


 https://twitter.com/AlertaQro/status/1313849019152687105

[kevin]

Looks like Delta's core is almost offshore again.

[edu2703]

10:00 AM CDT Wed Oct 7
Location: 21.4°N 88.0°W
Moving: NW at 17 mph
Min pressure: 975 mb
Max sustained: 105 mph

[HurricaneBrain]

Hurricane watches extending into Texas coast.

[aspen]

It actually doesn't look too terrible.


Based on the movement of the hot towers, I believe the CoC is somewhere around here:


It should be over water very soon. Once recon returns sometime later today, it should be well enough from the Yucutan Peninsula for the core to start recovering and the plane to do proper center passes to assess its structure.

[wx98]

NHC’s landfall time has been moved up from late Friday night to now early Friday afternoon. Last forecast point Friday morning at 12z is 105 kt/120 mph.

[supercane4867]

The size of its wind field at landfall on 06z HWRF is massive. Possibly twice the size of Laura. Surge will be phenomenal regardless of exact landfall strength.