ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ClarCari]

I'm afraid to look at recon progress for fear they will have to turn around.

I would turn back looking at the IR atm. Send in the drones instead lol

I would imagine for the crew, this is the type of system that’s sorta like being the chosen crew to fly to the moon. They do LIVE for this.

[Cunxi Huang]

Pink ring needs to expand a bit to get a manual T 8.0, assuming warming eye

https://i.imgur.com/TJs9wUy.png

DT is capped at 7.5, a manual FT8.0 needs an addition banding feature or an MET8.0 to support a FT8.0.

[JamesRainier]

I'm afraid to look at recon progress for fear they will have to turn around.

Anyone, can a storm be too strong by the eye to fly into?

[aspen]

Approaching T 8.0 (only other storm in the Atlantic to ever do this is Hurricane Gilbert, pressure was recorded at 888 mb there)

https://i.imgur.com/skQSF6P.png

It certainly looks like a 150-160 kt system, but I don’t know if that’s possible. That would require an intensification rate of +55-65 kt in just 12 hours.

[NDG]

Radar site having problems but small and potent eyewall is still very impressive.

[Iceresistance]

I'm afraid to look at recon progress for fear they will have to turn around.

I can't blame you, but they are still going at 377 knots, they are at the point of no return.

[zal0phus]

I'm guessing recon will find somewhere in the territory of 175 mph/900-910 mb. This is that Caribbean cruiser monster we've been fearing since 2011.

[TheProfessor]

Eta succeeded in distracting me from completing the goal I had set out today for completing grad school assignments. Only completed 2 out of 3. This is a very unfortunate situation for Nicaragua and Honduras as Eta likely intensified enough to where the effects of steering have slowed the movement of the storm. Not to mention it will likely survive longer on land than a Cat 1 or 2 cane would. We're looking at a possible flood event that will be hard to describe with words. Mudslides will also be a problem further inland as well.

[Iceresistance]

I'm afraid to look at recon progress for fear they will have to turn around.

Anyone, can a storm be too strong by the eye to fly into?

Maybe, they did fly into 200+ mph winds in 2015 inside Pactrica.

[Highteeld]

2020NOV02 235017 6.1 944.1 117.4 6.1 6.3 7.7 1.3T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF -11.78 -78.83 EYE 8 IR 20.0 14.32 82.48 ARCHER GOES16 18.8

[supercane4867]

Had to save this GFS initialization of 200mb streamlines. One for the record books -- triple outflow channels

[TorSkk]

Pink ring needs to expand a bit to get a manual T 8.0, assuming warming eye

https://i.imgur.com/TJs9wUy.png

And keen SAB. Only they don't require banding for T8. You also need MET of 8 which is simply unachievable now.

[EquusStorm]

I'm too in awe of this thing to focus today, just wow.

Y'all keep every finger crossed for the recon plane this time

[Chemmers]

I am going for sub 900

[SconnieCane]

I wonder how conditions are on Isla de Providencia, population about 5,000 (part of Colombia although off the coast of Nicaragua). The micro-core should miss them, but they're still under the CDO and will be for some time.

[RL3AO]

Pink ring needs to expand a bit to get a manual T 8.0, assuming warming eye

https://i.imgur.com/TJs9wUy.png

DT is capped at 7.5, a manual FT8.0 needs an addition banding feature or an MET8.0 to support a FT8.0.

Yes. Although modern versions of ADT allow 8.0+ based solely on convection temp and eye temp. Dvorak did the best he could with the technology avaliable, but now we can measure and account for differences like - 80 vs - 85 vs - 90 C which are all just CDG on the original technique.

[SconnieCane]

Had to save this GFS initialization of 200mb streamlines. One for the record books -- triple outflow channels

https://i.imgur.com/IjbkQOp.png

Surprised GCANE hasn't had much to say about the internal dynamics of this system.

[supercane4867]

I'm afraid to look at recon progress for fear they will have to turn around.

Anyone, can a storm be too strong by the eye to fly into?

Well, they just flew into 185kt possibly sub-872mb Hurricane Patricia back in 2015

[Beef Stew]

I'm not even going to guess as to what MSLP and sustained winds are right now. Recon will tell that story. I'm still just trying to wrap my head around the fact that we are looking at a storm that rivals only Wilma and Gilbert in terms of presentation in the NATL. And it's a Greek storm. And it's November. I'm quite truly speechless.

[ElectricStorm]

Approaching T 8.0 (only other storm in the Atlantic to ever do this is Hurricane Gilbert, pressure was recorded at 888 mb there)

https://i.imgur.com/skQSF6P.png

It certainly looks like a 150-160 kt system, but I don’t know if that’s possible. That would require an intensification rate of +55-65 kt in just 12 hours.

Remember it's 2020... Anything is possible lol