ATL: LAURA - Models

[hohnywx]

Huh? They said "For now, we will assume" ...which can be translated to ..."we are gonna stick with this but confidence is low...."

I had the same reaction when i read that. "For now we will assume" is definitely a choice of words that most people hopefully wouldn't use if they meant, "It seems likely that" or similar.

My point was that if the NHC believed it was going to go over the islands, they would state so. Perhaps "likely" was a poor word choice.

[ColdMiser123]

HMON/HWRF looked like they had a pretty reasonable initialization at 12z.

[Hammy]

Huh? They said "For now, we will assume" ...which can be translated to ..."we are gonna stick with this but confidence is low...."

I had the same reaction when i read that. "For now we will assume" is definitely a choice of words that most people hopefully wouldn't use if they meant, "It seems likely that" or similar.

My point was that if the NHC believed it was going to go over the islands, they would state so. Perhaps "likely" was a poor word choice.

The job of NHC forecasters is to prepare people so if they're uncertain, so if there's say a 50/50 shot of doing one or the other they're going to err on the side of caution and go with the higher forecast--if they're wrong, people prepared and got a good exercise for when the next storm comes. If they go with land and they're wrong then a lot of people are caught off guard. Right now the track is the best possible compromise to both prepare people in Florid and the Gulf, and prepare people in the GA for the rainfall that's likely to occur.

[AubreyStorm]

12z HMON so far North of 06z. The center scrapes/barely misses Puerto Rico and at 36 hours there is a 992 mbar storm instead of a 1008 mbar mess. The track of the following 2 days will be crucial for the development of Laura.

https://i.imgur.com/ylkdVLP.gif

Looks Hurricane

[StPeteMike]

12z HMON so far North of 06z. The center scrapes/barely misses Puerto Rico and at 36 hours there is a 992 mbar storm instead of a 1008 mbar mess. The track of the following 2 days will be crucial for the development of Laura.

https://i.imgur.com/ylkdVLP.gif

Looks Hurricane

If not hurricane, 70 mph TS. With that track, it will miss the islands and keep the possibility of a Cat 2/ maybe 3 approaching the Keys.

[NDG]

12z HWRF, hurricane Sunday morning, showing it to stay north of Hispaniola.

[cheezyWXguy]

12z HWRF, hurricane Sunday morning, showing it to stay north of Hispaniola.

https://i.imgur.com/Vvo09sX.png

Yep, and this run is stronger than the 06z and 00z

[TallahasseeMan]

HMON has shifted north significantly from 0z/6z. skirting the northern coast of Cuba rather then the southern coast as before.

[Blown Away]

12z HWRF, hurricane Sunday morning, showing it to stay north of Hispaniola.

https://i.imgur.com/Vvo09sX.png

Yep, and this run is stronger than the 06z and 00z

12z HWRF/HMON also noticeable slower by 1-2 degrees past @60 hrs.

[Nimbus]

Unless the ridging Sunday is stronger than usual you would expect the mountains of Hispaniola to spin something up along the north shore. Hopefully there will still be enough shear to keep Laura from exploding from those high SST's in the Florida straits but its not looking good ATM.

[TallahasseeMan]

HWRF is SE of 0z through 66hrs.

[cp79]

The way the trend is going, this thing may not even pull much north. It could make a beeline for Mexico. Seems like more and more models take this further south and west into the Gulf.

[Blown Away]

Geez, just at 72 hours, the 12z HWRF is @1.5 degrees E or @90 miles from 00z. Also @.5 degree N.

[SFLcane]

Geez, just at 72 hours, the 12z HWRF is @1.5 degrees E or @90 miles from 00z. Also @.5 degree N.

Horrific satellite appearance right now may open up to a wave again. The trend is south regardless of intensity ridge is just to strong. May even clear the keys to the south on the HWRF.

Edit: HWRF clips keys.

[toad strangler]

Geez, just at 72 hours, the 12z HWRF is @1.5 degrees E or @90 miles from 00z. Also @.5 degree N.

Horrific satellite appearance right now may open up to a wave again. The trend is south regardless of intensity ridge is just to strong. May even clear the keys to the south on the HWRF.

You guys in true S FL might get a good band or two

[cp79]

Geez, just at 72 hours, the 12z HWRF is @1.5 degrees E or @90 miles from 00z. Also @.5 degree N.

Horrific satellite appearance right now may open up to a wave again. The trend is south regardless of intensity ridge is just to strong. May even clear the keys to the south on the HWRF.

Agree. It’s definitely fighting to stay alive right now. In order for her to stay alive, she needs to avoid DR/Cuba. If not, stick a fork in her. I think it’s 50/50 right now.

[Kazmit]

The way the trend is going, this thing may not even pull much north. It could make a beeline for Mexico. Seems like more and more models take this further south and west into the Gulf.

Has a storm ever gone through the Florida straights and into Mexico?

[TallahasseeMan]

HWRF with it's strongest run thus far, 929mb at 99hrs. HMON with it's strongest run since 12z yesterday.

As an aside, its very strange in my opinion that people continue to try and write off Laura when the models that forecast intensification have been fairly consistent with waiting until it gets closer to PR/Hispaniola to do so. The fact it has held together at all through some fairly hostile conditions is impressive.

[NXStumpy_Robothing]

The way the trend is going, this thing may not even pull much north. It could make a beeline for Mexico. Seems like more and more models take this further south and west into the Gulf.

Has a storm ever gone through the Florida straights and into Mexico?

Well, I believe the 1933 Cuba-Brownsville Hurricane is close enough.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1933_Cuba ... _hurricane

[StPeteMike]

HWRF with it's strongest run thus far, 929mb at 99hrs. HMON with it's strongest run since 12z yesterday.

As an aside, its very strange in my opinion that people continue to try and write off Laura when the models that forecast intensification have been fairly consistent with waiting until it gets closer to PR/Hispaniola to do so. The fact it has held together at all through some fairly hostile conditions is impressive.

THANK YOU! According to most of the models this still has 24 hours before getting it’s act together.