BoB: AMPHAN - Post-Tropical

[1900hurricane]

The JTWC is making their Dvorak fixes with the 'GOES-IO' satellite. I heard that this is actually the old GOES-13 satellite, has anyone else heard that too?

TPIO10 PGTW 171450

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (AMPHAN)

B. 17/1415Z

C. 12.13N

D. 86.54E

E. THREE/GOES-IO

F. T5.0/5.0/D2.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. W EYE SURROUNDED BY W
YIELDS AN E# OF 6.0. SUBTRACTED 1.0 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR CMG TO
YIELD A DT OF 5.0. MET IS 4.0. PT IS 4.5. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
17/1005Z 11.77N 86.63E SSMI
17/1025Z 11.85N 86.38E SSMS


MARTIN

[1900hurricane]

That looks pretty good.

[Hayabusa]

[aspen]

The eye has now warmed to LG:

This is almost certainly at or near major hurricane intensity now. The JTWC’s Dvorak estimate of T#5.0 isn’t that bad.

[Abdullah]

Amphan's developing an eye fast.

[Hayabusa]

ohhhh

2020MAY17 161500 3.8 986.1 61.0 3.8 4.2 6.7 0.5T/hour OFF OFF OFF OFF -41.20 -84.15 EYE 8 IR -15.5 12.39 -86.74 ARCHER MSG1 53.5

[aspen]

15z microwave pass is looking pretty good. The eyewall came out smaller than I thought it would, based on yesterday’s passes.

[MarioProtVI]

Conservatively saying this is 100 kt rn. If trends continue a C5 is likely. However I think JTWC is gonna lag on this one tho..

[1900hurricane]

ohhhh

2020MAY17 161500 3.8 986.1 61.0 3.8 4.2 6.7 0.5T/hour OFF OFF OFF OFF -41.20 -84.15 EYE 8 IR -15.5 12.39 -86.74 ARCHER MSG1 53.5

-84.15 will definitely do that.

[mrbagyo]

The JTWC is making their Dvorak fixes with the 'GOES-IO' satellite. I heard that this is actually the old GOES-13 satellite, has anyone else heard that too?

TPIO10 PGTW 171450

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (AMPHAN)

B. 17/1415Z

C. 12.13N

D. 86.54E

E. THREE/GOES-IO

F. T5.0/5.0/D2.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. W EYE SURROUNDED BY W
YIELDS AN E# OF 6.0. SUBTRACTED 1.0 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR CMG TO
YIELD A DT OF 5.0. MET IS 4.0. PT IS 4.5. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
17/1005Z 11.77N 86.63E SSMI
17/1025Z 11.85N 86.38E SSMS


MARTIN

That sounds interesting.
I hope we can also have floaters from that satellite,
Imo, himawari-8 and Meteosat IO's orbital position are not optimal for BOB and Indian ocean as a whole
INSAT 3-D and Elektro L2's orbital position are more ideal.

[Highteeld]

ERI phase might be ongoing

[Highteeld]

Overcooked, but still worth sharing

CIMSS/NESDIS-USAF/NRL AMSU TC Intensity Estimation:
CYCLONE 01B
Sunday 17may20 Time: 1533 UTC
Latitude: 12.29 Longitude: 86.39
Storm position corresponds to AMSU-A FOV 14 [1<--->30]
-----------------------------------------------------------------
| Estimated MSLP: 938 hPa
| Estimated Maximum Sustained Wind: 128 kts
| Estimate Confidence: Good ( +/- 10mb +/- 12kts )
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Channel 8 (~150 hPa) Tb Anomaly: 3.51
Channel 7 (~250 hPa) Tb Anomaly: 2.52
RMW: 37 km
RMW Source is: JTWC
Environmental Pressure: 1003
Satellite: NOAA-90
ATCF data for Month: 05 Day: 17 Time (UTC): 1200

For imagery, go to http://amsu.ssec.wisc.edu
For all comments and questions mailto:chrisv@ssec.wisc.edu

[aspen]

Eye has temporarily stopped warming; looks like it was a smaller part that was opening before, and now the whole eye will warm soon.

[Yellow Evan]

Depending how you apply CDG, this is either T6.0 or T6.5 I believe in terms of raw DT. I didn't expect to wake to this...

[Highteeld]

Cloud tops anyone?

[Yellow Evan]

Nearing T7.0.

[Yellow Evan]

2020MAY17 161500 3.8 986.1 61.0 3.8 4.2 6.7 0.5T/hour OFF OFF OFF OFF -41.20 -84.15 EYE 8 IR -15.5 12.39 -86.74 ARCHER MSG1 53.5
2020MAY17 164500 3.8 986.1 61.0 3.8 4.2 6.5 0.5T/hour OFF OFF OFF OFF -59.78 -84.84 EYE -99 IR -15.5 12.39 -86.75 ARCHER MSG1 53.5
2020MAY17 171500 3.9 984.7 63.0 3.9 3.9 3.9 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF -68.57 -84.76 UNIFRM N/A -15.5 12.51 -86.42 FCST MSG1 53.2
2020MAY17 174500 3.9 984.6 63.0 3.9 4.3 6.4 0.5T/hour OFF OFF OFF OFF -54.33 -83.35 EYE -99 IR -15.5 12.60 -86.70 ARCHER MSG1 53.5

[Yellow Evan]

TPIO10 PGTW 171834

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (AMPHAN)

B. 17/1745Z

C. 12.52N

D. 86.63E

E. ONE/GOES-IO

F. T6.0/6.0/D3.5/24HRS STT: D1.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 05A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. CMG SURR EYE OF MG + 0 EYE
ADJ YIELDS DT OF 6.5. EYE 10NM IRREGULAR. MET 4.0, PT YIELDS 6.0.
DBO PT DUE UNCLEAR DT. CONSTRAINTS BROKE.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


DARLOW

I'd argue DT is 7.0 with FT being 6.5 but this is a good fix by JTWC standards.

[1900hurricane]

Overcooked, but still worth sharing

CIMSS/NESDIS-USAF/NRL AMSU TC Intensity Estimation:
CYCLONE 01B
Sunday 17may20 Time: 1533 UTC
Latitude: 12.29 Longitude: 86.39
Storm position corresponds to AMSU-A FOV 14 [1<--->30]
-----------------------------------------------------------------
| Estimated MSLP: 938 hPa
| Estimated Maximum Sustained Wind: 128 kts
| Estimate Confidence: Good ( +/- 10mb +/- 12kts )
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Channel 8 (~150 hPa) Tb Anomaly: 3.51
Channel 7 (~250 hPa) Tb Anomaly: 2.52
RMW: 37 km
RMW Source is: JTWC
Environmental Pressure: 1003
Satellite: NOAA-90
ATCF data for Month: 05 Day: 17 Time (UTC): 1200

For imagery, go to http://amsu.ssec.wisc.edu
For all comments and questions mailto:chrisv@ssec.wisc.edu

https://i.imgur.com/j1kSOFl.png

It might be overcooked, I'm not sure, but one thing worth pointing out is the RMW. That's JTWC's 20 nm in the b-deck. To still get an estimate that high despite the pretty big RMW input raises an eyebrow here.

[Hayabusa]

Hmm

01B AMPHAN 200517 1800 12.6N 86.6E IO 110 942