ATL: IOTA - Remnants - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145254
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#161 Postby cycloneye » Thu Nov 12, 2020 6:36 pm

A tropical wave located over the central Caribbean Sea continues to
produce a large area of showers and thunderstorms. While this system
has changed little in organization this evening, a tropical
depression will likely form within the next couple of days as it
moves slowly westward over the central and western Caribbean Sea.
Interests in Honduras and Nicaragua should closely monitor the
progress of this system. Regardless of development, this
disturbance is expected to bring heavy rainfall along with possible
flash flooding to portions of Hispaniola over the next day or so.
For more detailed information, refer to products issued by your
local weather office.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

xironman
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2522
Joined: Sun Jun 10, 2007 4:53 pm
Location: NoVA

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#162 Postby xironman » Thu Nov 12, 2020 7:00 pm

The MLC is there

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9288
Age: 21
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#163 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Nov 12, 2020 7:01 pm

xironman wrote:The MLC is there

https://i.imgur.com/0aCpQ00.gif



This thing is ready to rumble!
1 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9288
Age: 21
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#164 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Nov 12, 2020 7:04 pm

Is ASCAT even working?

Nothing since 10:23 UTC
0 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145254
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#165 Postby cycloneye » Thu Nov 12, 2020 7:24 pm

supercane4867 wrote:Looks like future Iota will track very close to Jamaica by the time it forms.

https://i.imgur.com/xZc69L3.gif


Why you think is going to be more north?
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8818
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#166 Postby aspen » Thu Nov 12, 2020 7:32 pm

cycloneye wrote:
supercane4867 wrote:Looks like future Iota will track very close to Jamaica by the time it forms.

https://i.imgur.com/xZc69L3.gif


Why you think is going to be more north?

Both the HWRF and HMON have shown a bit of a tug-of-war between the north and south ends of the disturbance, with the north end always winning out on today’s runs.
1 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21

I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.

User avatar
Emmett_Brown
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1432
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 9:10 pm
Location: Sarasota FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#167 Postby Emmett_Brown » Thu Nov 12, 2020 8:16 pm

Perhaps since HWRF and HMON show strong storms, the stronger storm tracks more north or to the right? Looking at the GEFS ensembles, the stronger members tend to head more NW similar to the HMON and HWRF (before turning more the SW after 140 hours as high pressure builds from the N)
1 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145254
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#168 Postby cycloneye » Thu Nov 12, 2020 8:17 pm

More south.

98L INVEST 201113 0000 15.0N 73.0W ATL 25 1009


Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
blp
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2840
Age: 46
Joined: Thu Sep 09, 2004 7:51 pm
Location: Miami, FL
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#169 Postby blp » Thu Nov 12, 2020 8:23 pm

That is one heck of a spin on the MMIC. This look ready for take off.

Image
4 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Owasso
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 309
Joined: Sat Aug 22, 2020 11:14 pm
Location: Chicago, Illinois

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#170 Postby Owasso » Thu Nov 12, 2020 8:51 pm

Another miss by ASCAT, this is getting ridiculous

Image
2 likes   

User avatar
Owasso
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 309
Joined: Sat Aug 22, 2020 11:14 pm
Location: Chicago, Illinois

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#171 Postby Owasso » Thu Nov 12, 2020 9:52 pm

Looks Closed but broad to me. DMAX should give it what it needs to tighten up.

Image
1 likes   

User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9288
Age: 21
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#172 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Nov 12, 2020 10:12 pm

Owasso wrote:Looks Closed but broad to me. DMAX should give it what it needs to tighten up.

https://i.postimg.cc/tT9hvdvm/image.png

We have a LLC, but ti's broad, for now.
1 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9288
Age: 21
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#173 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Nov 12, 2020 10:16 pm

98L is less organized that what it was just 8 hours ago
0 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

ClarCari
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 579
Joined: Thu Aug 13, 2020 11:02 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#174 Postby ClarCari » Thu Nov 12, 2020 10:19 pm

I’d argue it’s more organized now.
Convection can be deceiving.
2 likes   

User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8818
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#175 Postby aspen » Thu Nov 12, 2020 10:20 pm

Iceresistance wrote:98L is less organized that what it was just 8 hours ago

It has a vigorous MLC and spin. It just needs convection to translate that down into an LLC.
4 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21

I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.

User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9288
Age: 21
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#176 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Nov 12, 2020 10:36 pm

aspen wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:98L is less organized that what it was just 8 hours ago

It has a vigorous MLC and spin. It just needs convection to translate that down into an LLC.

Very True. . . no convection can fool you into think it's less organized.

(And yes, ASCAT has discovered a LLC by a partical hit.)
1 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9288
Age: 21
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#177 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Nov 12, 2020 10:52 pm

THERE IS A LLC ON SATELLITE! BUT THE CONVECTION HAS HIDDEN IT!
NOTE THE VERY TIGHT SPIN IN THE FIRST FRAMES! :shocked!: :shocked!: :shocked!: :shocked!: :shocked!: :shocked!: :shocked!:


Image
0 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

User avatar
gfsperpendicular
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 383
Age: 21
Joined: Mon Jun 19, 2017 3:04 pm
Location: Northern Virginia

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#178 Postby gfsperpendicular » Thu Nov 12, 2020 10:57 pm

Iceresistance wrote:THERE IS A LLC ON SATELLITE! BUT THE CONVECTION HAS HIDDEN IT!
NOTE THE VERY TIGHT SPIN IN THE FIRST FRAMES! :shocked!: :shocked!: :shocked!: :shocked!: :shocked!: :shocked!: :shocked!:


https://s8.gifyu.com/images/LLC-inside-98L.gif


I'm pretty sure that's the mid-level center. You won't have much luck finding an LLC on satellite until the morning.
0 likes   
I'm not sleeping, I'm waiting for the 0900 UTC advisory!

#1 CMC stan

User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9288
Age: 21
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#179 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Nov 12, 2020 10:59 pm

gfsperpendicular wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:THERE IS A LLC ON SATELLITE! BUT THE CONVECTION HAS HIDDEN IT!
NOTE THE VERY TIGHT SPIN IN THE FIRST FRAMES! :shocked!: :shocked!: :shocked!: :shocked!: :shocked!: :shocked!: :shocked!:


https://s8.gifyu.com/images/LLC-inside-98L.gif


I'm pretty sure that's the mid-level center. You won't have much luck finding an LLC on satellite until the morning.


But look how tight that was
0 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

Keldeo1997
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 637
Joined: Fri Oct 11, 2019 11:35 pm

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#180 Postby Keldeo1997 » Thu Nov 12, 2020 11:44 pm

Image

Its almost there
2 likes   


Return to “2020”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 9 guests