ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[chaser1]

here is something interesting.. the overall vorticity is east to west orientated. that east lobe will swing around later and possibly see the center relocate with that.. earlier HWRF runs had something similar.

oh man yeah that west lobe will drop south and the east lobe will shoot north of the islands. I will be watching that intently today as that east lobe has a lot of rotational energy..

center reformation to the NE if convection build there is probably quite likely.

Load the loop below

https://re.ssec.wisc.edu/s/r1wqjC

I think you have a really good point there. My hunch will be that the rotational process will be a bit slower though like possibly well into the evening. Won't be a directional change, just a "stair-step" jump that'll result in a bit of a jump in latitude. Boy, that would shake things up a tad lol.

[msbee]

Started cleaning up the patio yesterday in anticipation of what is now Laura. I thought we would have time this morning to finish, but the heavens opened up. very heavy rain with thunder drenched us. The cockatoo flew into a tree instead of going into the small cage. I think the thunder scared her. Anyway, captured the cockatoo in the middle of all the rain. Skies are just cloudy now. More to come for St Maarten I am sure. Looks like the center may come closer to us than previously thought.
18.1, 63.1.

[SFLcane]

Not a very impressive satellite presentation right now .

[Cat5James]

Not a very impressive satellite presentation right now .

Appears that the HWRF is verifying yet again, as it depicted Laura weakening and then reforming a LLC to the north

[Lance]

Not a very impressive satellite presentation right now .

When has it ever looked impressive? LOL

[Dean4Storms]

Agree with Aric here..... The energy swinging around counterclockwise now East of the Recon LLC fix is likely to take over once it gets North of the current LLC and make a jump in latitude. It's still a string out system and very disorganized.

[abajan]

Started cleaning up the patio yesterday in anticipation of what is now Laura. I thought we would have time this morning to finish, but the heavens opened up. very heavy rain with thunder drenched us. The cockatoo flew into a tree instead of going into the small cage. I think the thunder scared her. Anyway, captured the cockatoo in the middle of all the rain. Skies are just cloudy now. More to come for St Maarten I am sure. Looks like the center may come closer to us than previously thought.
18.1, 63.1.

Sounds like you're having a rather eventful day!
Stay safe and keep us posted.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1296819890700136448

[artist]

Started cleaning up the patio yesterday in anticipation of what is now Laura. I thought we would have time this morning to finish, but the heavens opened up. very heavy rain with thunder drenched us. The cockatoo flew into a tree instead of going into the small cage. I think the thunder scared her. Anyway, captured the cockatoo in the middle of all the rain. Skies are just cloudy now. More to come for St Maarten I am sure. Looks like the center may come closer to us than previously thought.
18.1, 63.1.

I was concerned about that. Sent you a message earlier.

[SFLcane]

Agree with Aric here..... The energy swinging around counterclockwise now East of the Recon LLC fix is likely to take over once it gets North of the current LLC and make a jump in latitude. It's still a string out system and very disorganized.

ASCAT shows that area recon found is the dominant center though. Definitely some reorganization possible but for now there is no center to the east.

[NDG]

[NDG]

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1296819890700136448?

What is he talking about? Recon found plenty of strong unflagged TS force winds near the CoC.

[wx98]

I posted earlier about Laura but it got deleted. But I said that we ended up getting Laura out of TD 13 after all.

[Ken711]

[SFLcane]

Most Mainland SFL "Dade and Broward" counties now officially out of the cone. The luck just continues for us but could be a big problem for the gulfcoast if the circulation survives.

[wx98]

The forecast track has of course moved south. Now passing over PR and scraping northern Hispaniola and Cuba. Still hurricane forecast in the Gulf.

[NDG]

This is what I call a forecast on a pattern from a strong Bermuda ridge, which many people doubted it was going to show up.

[Aric Dunn]

Definitely looks the building convection to the east is where the magic is about to happen.. it has that extra vorticity and convergence to tighten up..

[ThetaE]

So I was looking through the recon dropsondes, and I found this drop just fascinating for a number of reasons. First, note this dropsonde is at 17.2 N 60.4 W, a good deal NW of the recon fixes. Check out the surface pressure- 1010 mb with 23kt surface winds, which is lower than the 1011 mb measured at the recon fixes (though not the new 1009 mb). The wind profile adds to the intrigue, as direction shifts from out of the ESE to out of the SSW. This points to a surface vortex to the NW, but I don't see any other talk or indication about that, which has me confused. Either way, the bottom 150 mb or so of the atmosphere still looks disorganized. It also makes me wonder if it is possible that the current center may not last and that a reformation to this location is possible (though not guaranteed). I see Aric is looking at a reformation to the east, but this seems like a separate possibility to me (note also this dropsonde is a few hours old now).

The final interesting feature is the temperature/dewpoint profile- this looks like the sort of profile a developing eye has, which is what first caught my attention. But here I think it's indicative of an enhanced inversion layer from the last remnants of the SAL near the system a few days ago. That SAL around the system has more or less disappeared, and this just looks like one last pocket of stability to me. Other dropsondes showed far more moist profiles surrounding this region, for instance. But if the center were to reform here, this stability would need to be overcome.

[chaser1]

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1296819890700136448?

What is he talking about? Recon found plenty of strong unflagged TS force winds near the CoC.

I didn't even understand the point Joe was trying to make. Sometimes I think he blurts things out and just doesn't bother to re-read to see if it even made sense.