ATL: LAURA - Models

[TallahasseeMan]

Definitely not what you want to see heading towards the Louisiana coastline

[SFLcane]

Geez, just at 72 hours, the 12z HWRF is @1.5 degrees E or @90 miles from 00z. Also @.5 degree N.

Horrific satellite appearance right now may open up to a wave again. The trend is south regardless of intensity ridge is just to strong. May even clear the keys to the south on the HWRF.

You guys in true S FL might get a good band or two

Na...its trending south and storm size is not large. Few rainy days.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

As pointed out by SFLcane, Laura more closely resembles an open wave right now. Laura's in a position where it could easily redevelop a LLC on either the northern or southern edge of the convection. If the former occurs, this would give some credence to the HWRF / HMON solution. If the latter occurs, a track as far south as below Cuba could even be on the table. Next 24 hours is critical.

[cp79]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2020082112/hwrf_satIR_13L_20.png

Definitely not what you want to see heading towards the Louisiana coastline

That's the HWRF for you. Then there's the Euro which appears to put a fork in this thing by 72 hours. It's all about whether it steers clear of the islands. If it takes the Euro's track across Hispanola and Cuba, this thing won't survive. If it's able to stay north of it and get into the Gulf unscathed, it could blow up.

[cheezyWXguy]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2020082112/hwrf_satIR_13L_20.png

Definitely not what you want to see heading towards the Louisiana coastline

HWRF even makes it look like you-know-who. I can’t see why it wouldn’t be in the realm of possibilities, but this is definitely close to the ceiling

[ColdMiser123]

Euro continuing the trend of a stronger system in the short-term. Now has a TS on the north Cuba coast at Day 3 about to emerge into the Gulf.

[TallahasseeMan]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2020082112/hwrf_satIR_13L_20.png

Definitely not what you want to see heading towards the Louisiana coastline

That's the HWRF for you. Then there's the Euro which appears to put a fork in this thing by 72 hours. It's all about whether it steers clear of the islands. If it takes the Euro's track across Hispanola and Cuba, this thing won't survive. If it's able to stay north of it and get into the Gulf unscathed, it could blow up.

The Euro that just ran is fairly different then prior runs though (some could say it caved) by initializing a closed circulation and maintaining something similar to it as it runs across northern Cuba. The trend has been for a stronger storm.

[ronjon]

12z HWRF has a 950 mb hurricane hitting key west Monday afternoon at 5...let's hope that doesn't verify.

[DestinHurricane]

Some big shifts to the west in the Gulf lately. Could take the Fredrick route, Katrina route, or Ike route.

[stormlover2013]

rita type track

[DestinHurricane]

rita type track

Also Andrew. People forget about it's second landfall.

[ColdMiser123]

After days of insisting this system would spontaneously fall apart, the Euro now shows an intensifying TS in the Gulf.

[kevin]

HWRF with a 923 mbar cat 4/5 system, HMON with 969 mbar and euro is now also slowly starting to become stronger... As has been said many, many times already, it all depends on possible interaction with the islands the coming days, but if it passes those unscathed Laura has potential to grow into a big one.

[stormlover2013]

Some big shifts to the west in the Gulf lately. Could take the Fredrick route, Katrina route, or Ike route.

or rita type route

[Hammy]

After days of insisting this system would spontaneously fall apart, the Euro now shows an intensifying TS in the Gulf.

Seems all the models were wrong and it's coming to a consensus between those that forecast a hurricane and those that forecast nothing at all. I am curious as to why it's taking it into the Gulf as a coherent system but not strengthening it as the available public Euro data is limited--is there too much shear or dry air, or no real discernible reason?

rita type track

Also Andrew. People forget about it's second landfall.

Claudette in 1979, albeit with the addition of interacting with future Marco (and a bit further north), seems like the closest analog, especially since there have also been models indicating some sort of stall could occur close to land.

[ColdMiser123]

After days of insisting this system would spontaneously fall apart, the Euro now shows an intensifying TS in the Gulf.

Seems all the models were wrong and it's coming to a consensus between those that forecast a hurricane and those that forecast nothing at all. I am curious as to why it's taking it into the Gulf as a coherent system but not strengthening it as the available public Euro data is limited--is there too much shear or dry air, or no real discernible reason?

System still looks slightly tilted which is why it still intensifies on the Euro, but doesn't rapidly deepen like the HMON/HWRF. Given how the Euro has done so far though, I'm inclined to take any solution it now shows with a grain of salt at this point.

[Siker]

After days of insisting this system would spontaneously fall apart, the Euro now shows an intensifying TS in the Gulf.

Seems all the models were wrong and it's coming to a consensus between those that forecast a hurricane and those that forecast nothing at all. I am curious as to why it's taking it into the Gulf as a coherent system but not strengthening it as the available public Euro data is limited--is there too much shear or dry air, or no real discernible reason?

Aside from land interaction, without looking at shear forecasts I'm going to guess it's shear / surface divergence related to the proximity of 14 (separated by like 400 miles at Hr 96).

[aspen]

Yikes, that HWRF run; 920-930 mbar Cat 5 barreling towards Louisiana. Is it even factoring in the possibility of outflow from TD14/Marco?

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Interesting thread on the HWRF's evolution of Laura.

https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/sta ... 4833169421

To sum it up, the HWRF appears to be showing a LLC reforming to the SE today, then rotating counterclockwise around the wave axis as the storm advances westward, before consolidating and taking off north of Hispaniola.

[stormlover2013]

https://apps.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/ima ... orm_13.gif

some 18z runs big big shift west