ATL: DELTA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SupaShrink]

Hurricane watches extending into Texas coast.

Yep and this time I'll be prepared to lose power. My area is powered by Entergy and depends on the Louisiana grid. At least this time it won't be as hot as it was when Laura came ashore.

Yeah like Gustav

[tropicwatch]

Yeah, that could cause a few international dilemmas!

The instruments the HH use are not designed to sample winds over land. Also, it's not ideal to fly in Mexican air space.

Doesn't have anything to do with creating an international incident. Mexico is benefiting from the data collected by the HH. They generally don't fly over land even in US Airspace and certainly aren't releasing dropsondes over land. I did see the NOAA plane fly into Mexico on Saturday while investigating Gama.

We did see fly overs of Cuba during missions this year. Don't know what criteria to make decisions for land flyovers.

[tropicwatch]

Yeah, that could cause a few international dilemmas!

Doesn't have anything to do with creating an international incident. Mexico is benefiting from the data collected by the HH. They generally don't fly over land even in US Airspace and certainly aren't releasing dropsondes over land. I did see the NOAA plane fly into Mexico on Saturday while investigating Gama.

We did see fly overs of Cuba during missions this year. Don't know what criteria they use to make decisions for land flyovers.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I don't see much to stop Delta from becoming a powerful hurricane once again in about 36 hours or so. I think we'll see a landfall intensity of 100 knots or so.

[p1nheadlarry]

Yeah, that could cause a few international dilemmas!

Doesn't have anything to do with creating an international incident. Mexico is benefiting from the data collected by the HH. They generally don't fly over land even in US Airspace and certainly aren't releasing dropsondes over land. I did see the NOAA plane fly into Mexico on Saturday while investigating Gama.

We did see fly overs of Cuba during missions this year. Don't know what criteria to make decisions for land flyovers.

I'd assume mission specs, low-level flights over land in a storm aren't ideal with the changes in the PBL. Someone else here might have a more confident answer...

[hipshot]

Live visible loop
https://whirlwind.aos.wisc.edu/~wxp/goes16/grb/meso_vis/meso1_60.html

source: https://www.aos.wisc.edu/weather/wx_obs/GOES16.html

Banding already starting north of the system.

Is that Gamma traversing the neck of the Yucatan? If so, I wonder what will happen to it if it gets back into the hot tub in the western Caribbean.

[tropicwatch]

Live visible loop
https://whirlwind.aos.wisc.edu/~wxp/goes16/grb/meso_vis/meso1_60.html

source: https://www.aos.wisc.edu/weather/wx_obs/GOES16.html

Banding already starting north of the system.

Is that Gamma traversing the neck of the Yucatan? If so, I wonder what will happen to it if it gets back into the hot tub in the western Caribbean.

Looking like whatever is left of Gamma is getting swallowed up by Delta.

[aspen]

Delta is going to go right over the highest OHC in this half of the Gulf tomorrow.

[ElectricStorm]

My personal prediction for peak in the gulf is 140mph/945mb... We'll see what happens

I will be very surprised if it got that strong again in the gulf- mainly because it weakened without being predicted in the Caribbean over extremely hot water and supposedly favorable/ideal conditions otherwise. The gulf conditions are not ideal as I understand it but are favorable to a degree for part of its path. Just not what it had in the NW Carib. And it unexpectedly weakened sharply before ever hitting land. But we’ll find out what it does there soon enough.

But this time it won't have a pinhole. Those pinholes are much easier to take out, as we saw yesterday. The new core will likely be much more stable

[ElectricStorm]

I don't see much to stop Delta from becoming a powerful hurricane once again in about 36 hours or so. I think we'll see a landfall intensity of 100 knots or so.

Exactly my thinking as well. I think people are overestimating the amount of weakening that will happen before landfall

[CrazyC83]

A farther west track means that Delta would avoid the cold pool south of the mouth of the Mississippi as well. The water is a bit warmer farther west.

[EquusStorm]

Core doesn't seem to have taken too bad a hit, might have even consolidated a little on land. Much more impressive today overall than last night. Expect a nice eye to pop out tomorrow unless there's a hiccup somewhere; slightly misplaced anticyclone and drier air always lurking. Part of me wonders if favorable trough interaction might counteract the falling SSTs near the coast; October can do some weird things.

[Hurricane Mike]

Noon update on Delta
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lAlPLIhFB18

[NDG]

 https://twitter.com/yucatan_hoy/status/1313874367277920257

[supercane4867]

Damage seen in Cancun appears to be the worst since Wilma.

[Cardiac311]

Seems to have taken a more westward course the last few hours after clearing the Yucatan ??

[dantonlsu]

Seems to have taken a more westward course the last few hours after clearing the Yucatan ??

Difficult to tell without a clear eye.

[Steve]

The size of its wind field at landfall on 06z HWRF is massive. Possibly twice the size of Laura. Surge will be phenomenal regardless of exact landfall strength.

Delta is trying to redeem the surge event that Laura was forecasted to be.

Oh my gosh.. why do people keep saying this. Laura had a 17 foot surge which was what was forecast.

The comments aren't based on the height, they're based on the fact that that surge was possible tens of miles inland. Just an FYI.

[BiloxiBeachGuy]

I know they really can't ( I guess ) but the Hurricane watch down in SE LA . . . If Delta came across that area on the NNE to NE track it would come right into the SE MS Coast & SW AL Coast as a hurricane, and our area is not even a TS Watch. This is what happened to Gulf Shores with Sally. Everyone put their guard down, and forgot about it until it was too late.

That would be a disaster since there are so many tourists down here right now for Cruisin' the Coast.

[Blown Away]

A farther west track means that Delta would avoid the cold pool south of the mouth of the Mississippi as well. The water is a bit warmer farther west.

May also encounter more shear?