ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[STRiZZY]

18z Euro into SFL...intensity probably a weak to moderate TS.

https://iili.io/dR7uNR.png

Are we allowed to post from this site? Or was this posted by them on social?

[Hammy]

When's the plane taking off? Tropical Tidbits still has nothing.

[MidnightRain]

Lol Is thing thing poofing? Convection has degreased dramatically. I just don’t know about that upgrade by tonight.

Again it looks like crap tonight! This thing just doesn’t want to get named.

Cant say this is entirely surprising. Clouds have been getting sheared to the northeast while clear skies to the west of the system. That’s kind of a sign right there that it’s about to run into some resistance.

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/derekortt/status/1288619350488948736

[Nimbus]

Recon could fly into that latest convective burst that seems to be close to the center?
Unless they are trying to save resources.
There is near TS strength wind shear in the northern convection, it may even die out once it loses its lift.
Only LLC seems to be near the latest burst of convection, but the exact center is probably unimportant except to the model initialization which is going to be a mess till tomorrow anyways.
Garbage in Garbage out.

[Frank P]

Geesh, the latest IR sat loops looks like it wants to split in half. The deep convection of the northern section is moving rapidly away and well to the northeast of PR while the southern section convection is starting to rebuild and continues to truck along to the west... weird looking system for sure... from what I can discern att I think I’ll go with the southern section... but overall, this discombobulated system looks pretty ragged as far as tropical systems go... maybe tonight one of the two blobs can get their act together... or maybe they will merge... I am just watchIng this crap show like everyone else... fun stuff no doubt!!

[CyclonicFury]

https://twitter.com/derekortt/status/1288619350488948736

Normally NHC does recon missions at 23:30z and 11:30z for the Atlantic. Not sure why the scheduled mission hasn't taken off.

[AnnularCane]

Hispaniola isn't necessarily a death sentence for storms.

True, its not a default that there is major disruption, every storm is different and even deep systems pass over with minimal disruption...also, storms do their best to avoid land

Not saying Hispaniola doesn't give them issues, just that it doesn't always kill them. Although I remember maybe a couple that passed over the island like it was nothing.

I think it's a rule or something that every season must have at least one disturbance that forces everyone to play the "will it or won't it" game all the way across.

[SFLcane]

This is definitely not organizing right now and yes I will say it might never. One of the most annoying wannabe tc’s I have seen dear lord. Hopefully it just completely poofs tonight.

“ Potential tropical cloud “

[Hypercane_Kyle]

09L suffering pretty hard from DMIN, a further sign that this is a very disorganized system.

[pgoss11]

This thing looks like a dying tropical wave.

[hipshot]

SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 66.3W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM S OF PONCE PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM SE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

Slowing down..

How do we know, we don't have a for sure COC, speed, directions etc. is just about a SWAG lately. I'm confused!

[STRiZZY]

 https://twitter.com/crankywxguy/status/1288629873712431104

[chaser1]

Lol Is thing thing poofing? Convection has decreased dramatically. I just don’t know about that upgrade by tonight.

Like, this morning this system had a CDO and was really starting to take shape. Then came the battle of the blobs again. And now? You're right, barring some immaculate conception there's just no reason to think an upgrade could occur before morning.

[Blown Away]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... =truecolor

If you zoom out I can see the possibility the models see consolidating a center N of the islands...

[CourierPR]

Is that a center I see SSW of the western tip of Puerto Rico?

[Kazmit]

I don't think Hispaniola will be a big deal if it's moving rapidly while still being a disorganized wave.

[tropicwatch]

Does anybody know what is actually going on with the HH's? I do know it does not have anything to do with it being night time.

[ConvergenceZone]

Hopefully this goes poof tonight. Some disturbances are just downright annoying, and this is one them. Hope it’s gone by morning

[SouthDadeFish]

There was talks that recon wouldn't take off if winds were too high on St. Croix. I guess that's the case. They may not fly tomorrow either if the presumed center is over Hispaniola.

Looks like a new convective burst is firing around 15.5N 65.5W. Lots of lightning.