ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[chaser1]

https://twitter.com/crankywxguy/status/1288629873712431104?s=20

Does that include microbursts from afternoon thunderstorms? Put me down for 38mph in W. Boca

[MidnightRain]

Hopefully this goes poof tonight. Some disturbances are just downright annoying, and this is one them. Hope it’s gone by morning

Lol starting to agree. It looked promising this morning, but right now it truly looks like a open wave.

[TheStormExpert]

This is definitely not organizing right now and yes I will say it might never. One of the most annoying wannabe tc’s I have seen dear lord. Hopefully it just completely poofs tonight.

“ Potential tropical cloud “

Yeah this is definitely the most annoying system to watch since pre-Hermine 2016. Can’t help but wonder why it’s struggling so much despite its large size? I mean there is a favorable Kelvin Wave right!?

[TheStormExpert]

At this point I’m thinking this won’t get named until at least it passes Hispaniola if at all.

I’ve lost track of how many days this has been a PTC?

[chaser1]

Does anybody know what is actually going on with the HH's? I do know it does not have anything to do with it being night time.

Referring to flights in general? Coronavirus impacting avail. flight crew??

[HurricaneFrances04]

There was talks that recon wouldn't take off if winds were too high on St. Croix. I guess that's the case. They may not fly tomorrow either if the presumed center is over Hispaniola.

Looks like a new convective burst is firing around 15.5N 65.5W. Lots of lightning.

Following on Puerto Rico radar: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~mnissenbaum/Rad ... /loop.html

[hipshot]

There was talks that recon wouldn't take off if winds were too high on St. Croix. I guess that's the case. They may not fly tomorrow either if the presumed center is over Hispaniola.

Looks like a new convective burst is firing around 15.5N 65.5W. Lots of lightning.

Following on Puerto Rico radar: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~mnissenbaum/Rad ... /loop.html

If that is the storm we need to follow, it sure looks like the center is south of PR by a bunch.

[tiger_deF]

At this point I could see no development or a decent hurricane in almost any position, the reason the models have been so off is because it still hasn't had one dominant center, but all we know is that there are very warm SST's and a potent anticyclone over the storm. The onus is on 92L to sink or swim

[STRiZZY]

There was talks that recon wouldn't take off if winds were too high on St. Croix. I guess that's the case. They may not fly tomorrow either if the presumed center is over Hispaniola.

Looks like a new convective burst is firing around 15.5N 65.5W. Lots of lightning.

Following on Puerto Rico radar: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~mnissenbaum/Rad ... /loop.html

If that is the storm we need to follow, it sure looks like the center is south of PR by a bunch.

Yep and there's convection blowing up there now.

[STRiZZY]

We're at the point with 92L/PTC9 that if this were a sitcom and the competing lobes were a "will they or wont they" situation, it would be stale and boring.
Some one make a move already

[alienstorm]

18z Euro trendedback east again not really developing until it reaches NW of Haiti.

[3090]

Using the NHC coordinates, the system is tracking south of the model guidance. But whatever that really means is trivial, since there is no real center of a storm and that is not remotely close to forming. It looked much better earlier today.

[caneseddy]

18z Euro trendedback east again not really developing until it reaches NW of Haiti.

It actually trended a bit west than the 12z run. 12z run had it skirting right off the East coast of Florida. 18z actually made landfall in Boca Raton and went a bit inland NNW

[BobHarlem]

18z Euro trendedback east again not really developing until it reaches NW of Haiti.

West you mean? 18z landfalls in Boca then slides up to Orlando. The 12z stayed just offshore.

[eastcoastFL]

There was talks that recon wouldn't take off if winds were too high on St. Croix. I guess that's the case. They may not fly tomorrow either if the presumed center is over Hispaniola.

Looks like a new convective burst is firing around 15.5N 65.5W. Lots of lightning.

Following on Puerto Rico radar: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~mnissenbaum/Rad ... /loop.html

Radar looks far more impressive than IR does though neither is looking like much. This thing is heading south from 90% rapido!

[Hammy]

This is definitely not organizing right now and yes I will say it might never. One of the most annoying wannabe tc’s I have seen dear lord. Hopefully it just completely poofs tonight.

“ Potential tropical cloud “

Yeah this is definitely the most annoying system to watch since pre-Hermine 2016. Can’t help but wonder why it’s struggling so much despite its large size? I mean there is a favorable Kelvin Wave right!?

Large size likely is the reason it's struggling--broader systems take longer, we're just used to seeing them in the Gulf gyres more than as waves.

[northjaxpro]

We're at the point with 92L/PTC9 that if this were a sitcom and the competing lobes were a "will they or wont they" situation, it would be stale and boring.
Some one make a move already

Lol. I feel your frustration.Imagine.how analysts like me and all the others in this business are feeling? There ate going to be systems like these that are going to pop up each and every season. PTC 9. Well It certainly has added more bags under my eyes and gray hairs to yours truly that's for sure!

However, I have been doing this too long to know that this is all just par for the course.

[alienstorm]

Trended west yes my bad

[ScottNAtlanta]

The outflow from this thing is massive
...but it looks less organized than earlier today

[psyclone]

I think one could make a compelling case for a shot clock on a PTC. whatever reasonable time that would be...this has far exceeded it. Multiple forecast cycles putting a track on a center that doesn't exist... must be frustrating for both forecasters and definitely the public. No one outside the weather world even knows what a PTC is.