ATL: ISAIAS - Models

[pgoss11]

Does anybody have the updated 18z TVCN??


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Yep.

https://i.ibb.co/sbpYdMh/BC9-F01-F2-7-D95-4026-8206-87606-C38-DB91.png

Looks good for us New Englanders

[AutoPenalti]

Angle of attack is key here once it moves away from Hispaniola.

[chris_fit]

Anyone have 12Z EURO Ensembles?

[SFLcane]

Anyone have 12Z EURO Ensembles?

Yep on FL coast concentration.

[chris_fit]

Anyone have 12Z EURO Ensembles?

Yep on FL coast concentration.

Don't tease like that - Post a IMG

[Hurricaneman]

:uarrow: TVCN moved back east 10-20 miles, looking better for FL to not get a direct hit from Isaias.

But moved farther west north of the Carolinas, I’m thinking the classic Cape Hatteras to Eastern Long Island/New England path is looking more likely as we go

[SFLcane]

Anyone have 12Z EURO Ensembles?

Yep on FL coast concentration.

Don't tease like that - Post a IMG

[fci]

I'd love to say the "repellant" is going to work again. But with most of these models, let's be honest. We're only talking about missing the coast in PB/Martin County by 10-80 miles or so, depending on which model you mean. UKMET, Euro might as well be a hit, and Canadian is a hit up the spine of FL. So, I'm certainly not ruling out a David-style landfall - and I don't think anyone else should either barring a big shift east overnight in modelling

Never rule it out but this certainly looks like deja vu.
There seem to be numerous storms that end up about 50 miles offshore and since the west sides tend to be weak, PBC gets a squall about 18 hours before it's supposed to be bad and then it's just spitting of rain and some gusts to 40 or so.
Matthew, Dorian........
The ones that come from the East are the ones that are more worrisome; Katrina, Frances, Jeanne.....

[NDG]

Once the Isaias gets close to FL there's still is fairly big spread between the Euro ensemble members, track not written on stone yet.
NC hit, 100%

[BobHarlem]

Once the Isaias gets close to FL there's still is fairly big spread between the Euro ensemble members, track not written on stone yet.
NC hit, 100%

https://i.imgur.com/f9gvA9H.png

Ensemble seems split by strength, stronger to the right, weaker to the left.

[SouthFLTropics]

Certainly nothing is written in stone. Anyone looking to sound the all clear due to a 2 or 3 day track needs not look to far to find evidence that they are frequently off. Case in point...recently deceased Hanna. Three days out was supposed to go in around Matagorda. It ended up South of Corpus Christi. That's around a 100 mile difference.

[Aric Dunn]

we have a bit of an issue... lol

the 12z Euro 24 hours positions are essentially the current position....

So essentially 18 hours ahead of schedule..

[JPmia]

we have a bit of an issue... lol

the 12z Euro 24 hours positions are essentially the current position....

So essentially 18 hours ahead of schedule..

https://i.ibb.co/1nL1ydW/Capture.png

That's what I was afraid of.. the center reformations/speed is booking it, which would implications downstream.

[WeatherEmperor]

we have a bit of an issue... lol

the 12z Euro 24 hours positions are essentially the current position....

So essentially 18 hours ahead of schedule..

[url]https://i.ibb.co/1nL1ydW/Captul]

Do you think this means Isais will end up a bit further west as a result of this??

[SouthFLTropics]

Aric, take a look at the 12z operational run though. It puts the 24 hour position closer to the NE coast of Cuba. Why are all of the ensembles dragging behind back on the North coast of Haiti?

[NDG]

we have a bit of an issue... lol

the 12z Euro 24 hours positions are essentially the current position....

So essentially 18 hours ahead of schedule..

https://i.ibb.co/1nL1ydW/Capture.png

That is not the correct forecast for 24 hrs, the image is for its 12 hr forecast, 0z position this evening.
This is the correct 24 hr position forecast.

[chaser1]

we have a bit of an issue... lol

the 12z Euro 24 hours positions are essentially the current position....

So essentially 18 hours ahead of schedule..

https://i.ibb.co/1nL1ydW/Capture.png

Wait, I certainly get the implication...... but that map show's points quite a bit further west then where it's presently at.

[AutoPenalti]

If it's faster (iow, LLC is hopping around) it will have a short avenue to move away from the coast. That's something models are not latching onto considering WE HAVE YET TO FIND AN ACTUAL CENTER.

[Aric Dunn]

we have a bit of an issue... lol

the 12z Euro 24 hours positions are essentially the current position....

So essentially 18 hours ahead of schedule..

https://i.ibb.co/1nL1ydW/Capture.png

That is not the correct forecast for 24 hrs, the image is for its 12 hr forecast, 0z position this evening.
This is the correct 24 hr position forecast.

https://i.imgur.com/AAHoMC0.png

So there is some bug with the weathernerds site ? I just took a screen shot.


edit : I see the issue. well we can cut that back down to being 4 hours ahead

[WeatherEmperor]

Arric,

On the image you posted....look right underneath the wind speed legend. It says F012hrs. The image from the other poster has the correct 24hr positions because his says F024hrs