ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

Well, PTC-9 now has the NW winds it never had before, confirmed by buoy 42059

https://i.imgur.com/3bLIHfC.gif

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=42059

The pressure was really starting to fall at that buoy...I wish we had a newer report. It hasn't reported in 2 hours

The reports have coming in little by little during the past 2 hours, getting closer to actual time.

[toad strangler]

92L looks like CRAP. Just what it needs to be to survive Hispaniola.

[eastcoastFL]

A bit of convection blowing up now I believe east of where the NHC has put the “center”


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/images/goes16_ir_09L_202007300125_lat16.2-lon293.7.jpg

Is that burst of convection the same spot where these storms are increasing towards the south of the radar?

[Do_For_Love]

No doubt this has been a frustrating storm to try and predict, it kinda slips through your hands when you feel like you have an idea of what it's gonna do. One prediction I do wanna shout out for being very accurate though was from Levi Cowan and a few on this board a couple days ago. That was the idea that the two "lobes" were gonna adjust position and end up in a north-south axis as it moved west toward PR and Hispanola. If you look at the IR now, that has pretty much occurred. I'm impressed.

[Aric Dunn]

A bit of convection blowing up now I believe east of where the NHC has put the “center”


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/images/goes16_ir_09L_202007300125_lat16.2-lon293.7.jpg

Is that burst of convection the same spot where these storms are increasing towards the south of the radar?


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~mnissenbaum/RadarArchive/TJUA5/2020/07/30/TJUA20200730013201.png

yes,
and it is also the same spot ...just a little south ...that I pointed out the LLC before the sun set.

[eastcoastFL]

Far western edge of PR reporting 36mph winds and 31mph to the eastern end

https://preview.weather.gov/edd/?lat=31 ... e_(%C2%BAF)&ndfdT=12&ndfdTS=&lviz=F&fullscreen=F&fxt=Point_(Text_Only)&ppd=24&pdy=3&satf=60&obsync=F&flavor=Advanced&tfo=&tfd=&tfw=&ht=F&hd=F&ho=&hf=&hb=F&hsps=F&ot=Temperature&hvt=F&sht=F&ehm=T&uwl=F&ec=F&lll=F&keys=&tfwfo=&tfsite=&ofont=20&opnt=&oset=&oan=F&oap=1&oid=F&cc=Pub&oo=T&cs=F&rs=S&ofbs=

[eastcoastFL]

A bit of convection blowing up now I believe east of where the NHC has put the “center”


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/images/goes16_ir_09L_202007300125_lat16.2-lon293.7.jpg

Is that burst of convection the same spot where these storms are increasing towards the south of the radar?


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~mnissenbaum/RadarArchive/TJUA5/2020/07/30/TJUA20200730013201.png

yes,
and it is also the same spot ...just a little south ...that I pointed out the LLC before the sun set.

Right. You also said the center is likely just a tad south of that, correct? You seem to be on point as it continues to fill in so there must be more storms just out of reach to the south.

[Aric Dunn]

Right..... Euro taking it south of Hispaniola is starting to make much more sense now lol

[FixySLN]

Again...call me crazy...but I still see the system skirting the south side of the islands and getting sucked into the Gulf.

[HurricaneAndre2008]

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1288658625146363905

[HurricaneFrances04]

Wonder if it'll be enough for the NHC to classify.

[Vdogg]

What a difference a few hours makes. I don't know what that thing is...

[Nancy Smar]

AL, 09, 2020073000, , BEST, 0, 157N, 663W, 45, 1004, TS, 34, NEQ, 300, 0, 0, 120, 1009, 180, 150, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ISAIAS, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 021,

AL092020 - Tropical Storm ISAIAS

[HurricaneFrances04]

AL, 09, 2020073000, , BEST, 0, 157N, 663W, 45, 1004, TS, 34, NEQ, 300, 0, 0, 120, 1009, 180, 150, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ISAIAS, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 021,

AL092020 - Tropical Storm ISAIAS

And answered lol

[pgoss11]

We have Isiais?

[Aric Dunn]

pretty sure this sums everything up.. ( and no thats not actually dry air)

[AutoPenalti]

Still doesn’t look closed per ASCAT.


Wait no, yes it does but barely..,

[typhoonty]

We're at the point with 92L/PTC9 that if this were a sitcom and the competing lobes were a "will they or wont they" situation, it would be stale and boring.
Some one make a move already

Lol. I feel your frustration.Imagine.how analysts like me and all the others in this business are feeling? There ate going to be systems like these that are going to pop up each and every season. PTC 9. Well It certainly has added more bags under my eyes and gray hairs to yours truly that's for sure!

However, I have been doing this too long to know that this is all just par for the course.

Is there a past system that you could compare this to? One that was as frustrating to figure out? I’ve been staring at this thing for a week now and feel like I know less about the end game than I did a week ago...

Late to the party, but Hermine for sure. It would've been a PTC for a week as the dreaded 99L. It seemed as if it was a slam dunk to form by the GI islands, but failed to do so until it was west of Key West. Thank goodness it took its time though, if Hermine had gotten it's act together 24 hours earlier Tallahassee would've been screwed, they were not prepared.

[ronjon]

Sure looks like the southern lobe has now developed a closed circulation. Apparently the UkMET and CMC operational and ensemble runs from 12z correctly initialized the low pressure and movement south of the islands.

[northjaxpro]

Well that big blowup of convection FINALLY did the trick. We have Isaias at long last!