ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GeneratorPower]

My guess is 888 and 175kt

[aspen]

Just came from record-breaking Goni and here we are...

I wonder if Eta gets stronger then Goni.

Highly unlikely. It’ll have to beat the JTWC’s estimates of 170 kt and 884 mbar, both of which are immense challenges for an Atlantic system.

[shiny-pebble]

I need this ERC (if there is one) too hold off for a few more hours. And then it can go and have the sloppiest ERC ever and fall a part even faster than Patricia please!!!

[Iceresistance]

The eye temperature is STILL in the positives!

[supercane4867]

Eta would enter global top 10 if Raw T7.9 becomes the final CI#

[Ntxw]

I am just in awe. This is Wilma/Patricia type of system. I would bet regardless of the insane low pressures, the wind measurements could be insane. Tends to be in these fast starts and tiny eyes super cold systems under RI.

[Blown Away]

My guess is 888 and 175kt

OMG, that’s insane if you are right...
My guess recon finds:
896mb / 165kts

[cheezyWXguy]

How far away is recon estimated currently?

[tiger_deF]

I am going to be so bummed if recon finds a major ERC already underway, with enough of an outer eyewall to reduce maximum winds from what they would be

[SouthFLTropics]

Amazing... I just saved a gif of the satellite image. That's one that is going to go into the record books and go down in history. I feel terrible for the people on the Mosquito Coast. I'm also concerned about the recon crew. They're in for a hell of a ride.

[supercane4867]

[Sciencerocks]

155 knt/898 mbs is my guess

[PavelGaborik]

175 MPH and 905 MB is my guess.

[Blown Away]

Geez, I hate flying w/o a Cat 5 monster... IMO, takes some courage to fly a prop plane into something that might be historical...

[aspen]

I am going to be so bummed if recon finds a major ERC already underway, with enough of an outer eyewall to reduce maximum winds from what they would be

Doesn’t seem like it. The eye is pretty tiny, so a major EWRC would’ve already collapsed it by now. Microwave passes from a few hours ago only showed partial broken bands and not a forming outer eyewall.

[supercane4867]

I am going to be so bummed if recon finds a major ERC already underway, with enough of an outer eyewall to reduce maximum winds from what they would be

Radar indicates otherwise

 https://twitter.com/icyclone/status/1323422096777744386

[Highteeld]

Raw T 8.3

[mrbagyo]

incredible microwave but looks like an outer ring is forming - another eyewall meld?

[Ed_2001]

I don't know about you man, but I guess i like top-tier cyclones better when they are not bombing out near the coast to make landfall at peak intensity, or something. Goni I am looking at you too.

On a serious note, I am really out of words to say. Just wish losses can be minimized as much as possible but there's no way around the fact that this will most likely be catastrophic.

[ElectricStorm]

Levi mentioned an ERC might be starting but to me it's been wobbling like this all day and there hasn't been one yet. And the eye is the best it's been all day