ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[KC7NEC]

One thing is becoming more clear, The SpaceX/NASA Demo-2 that is set to return and splash down off one of the coasts of Florida on SUNDAY is almost certainly going to need to be delayed.

[caneseddy]

Key points from the discussion.

Since the cyclone is expected to move over Hispaniola on Thursday
some weakening is likely within the next 24 hours. However since
Isaias has such a broad wind field, the weakening will probably not
be as significant as in a typical tropical cyclone with a small
radius of maximum winds. Also, a re-formation of the center to the
north of Hispaniola may occur.

Later in the forecast period some
strengthening is likely, although this may be offset by
southwesterly wind shear on the order of 20 kt in 2-3 days

It should be noted that further
adjustments to the forecast tracks are indeed possible, especially
after Isaias moves north of Hispaniola.

Notice how they use the word "may" when it comes to the shear that the earlier runs were showing. They are not so sure now it seems like. Also the track is still uncertain obviously once it crosses Hispaniola. I think the 18z Euro may have been on to something showing a path more towards Haiti/eastern Cuba

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

[northjaxpro]

I am turning in for now. Bùt before I leave, now we have an.offfcial center and now the real meat snd potatoes of this situation begins for tomortow. It will be a very interesting day to see how this all shakea down.

I think the 12Z run tomorrow of the models will tells us a whole lot about the particulars with Isaias. So many variables and factors remain on the table .late tonight as I turn in for some shut eye....

[SouthFLTropics]

One thing is becoming more clear, The SpaceX/NASA Demo-2 that is set to return and splash down off one of the coasts of Florida on SUNDAY is almost certainly going to need to be delayed.

Bob and Doug will get a few more days on the ISS to view our planet.

[gfsperpendicular]

9 named storms officially, and it's still July.

Mom come pick me up I'm scared

[TheStormExpert]

I am turning in for now. Bùt before I leave, now we have an.offfcial center and now the real meat snd potatoes of this situation begins for tomortow. It will be a very interesting day to see how this all shakea down.

I think the 12Z run tomorrow of the models will tells us a whole lot about the particulars with Isaias. So many variables and factors remain on the table .late tonight as I turn in for some shut eye....

Hopefully tonight’s 00z runs have all the data needed to give us a clearer picture of the future track and intensity of Isaias.

[emeraldislenc]

The projected track now has my attention in North Carolina.

[AdamFirst]

I am turning in for now. Bùt before I leave, now we have an.offfcial center and now the real meat snd potatoes of this situation begins for tomortow. It will be a very interesting day to see how this all shakea down.

I think the 12Z run tomorrow of the models will tells us a whole lot about the particulars with Isaias. So many variables and factors remain on the table .late tonight as I turn in for some shut eye....

Hopefully tonight’s 00z runs have all the data needed to give us a clearer picture of the future track and intensity of Isaias.

Some suites will (like the EURO) but it'll be safe to say the 06z suites will all be sampling the actual LLC

[STRiZZY]

Finally we have Isaias! Now can the HHs finally sample it! Hasn't had any respect thus far haha.
Models will look different in the morning.

[psyclone]

There we go...first I declared hanna a fun storm (then Hanna went bananas) and now I complained aboot easy-e dithering and it took off. I have a hot hand...like opposite George on Seinfeld. That's quite the east shift in the past 3 cycles. From just west of the peninsula to barely touching the east coast. If that verifies we could have a decent weekend on the western side of the peninsula

[STRiZZY]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1288660853663977478

[Kazmit]

Hopefully this helps y'all.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TjlWGFdUfro

[Hurricane Mike]

11pm Video Update on Isaias
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_yfE-5aqRm8

[STRiZZY]

I wonder what conditions are like in the Mona Passage tonight. That place is rough under clear skies.

[BobHarlem]

I am turning in for now. Bùt before I leave, now we have an.offfcial center and now the real meat snd potatoes of this situation begins for tomortow. It will be a very interesting day to see how this all shakea down.

I think the 12Z run tomorrow of the models will tells us a whole lot about the particulars with Isaias. So many variables and factors remain on the table .late tonight as I turn in for some shut eye....

Hopefully tonight’s 00z runs have all the data needed to give us a clearer picture of the future track and intensity of Isaias.

They won't have that 11PM center Position since it came so late. (other than Maybe euro) 6Z should though.

[Craters]

I just think that it's perfectly and deliciously classic that the storm was named exactly when so many folks were moaning and groaning about how sick it looked, would never to be named, and would or should be gone by morning!

If you want an easier -- that is, more American English-friendly way to pronounce the name of the storm, I think you can safely say "eye-ZAY-us" and nobody should give you much flak.

[wzrgirl1]

Does anyone think that a cat.1 hurricane is still possible for us here in South Florida, especially if a reformation occurs north of Hispaniola? I know it is not in the official forecast but I am nervous to wake up in the morning with a possible forecast change.

[caneman]

I am turning in for now. Bùt before I leave, now we have an.offfcial center and now the real meat snd potatoes of this situation begins for tomortow. It will be a very interesting day to see how this all shakea down.

I think the 12Z run tomorrow of the models will tells us a whole lot about the particulars with Isaias. So many variables and factors remain on the table .late tonight as I turn in for some shut eye....

Hopefully tonight’s 00z runs have all the data needed to give us a clearer picture of the future track and intensity of Isaias.

They won't have that 11PM center Position since it came so late. (other than Maybe euro) 6Z should though.

You would think this would mean a shift West at some point if verified

[EquusStorm]

The plot thickens. What a fascinating and frustrating storm.

Might see some big time mudslide and flood issues in Haiti coming up

[Evil Jeremy]

NHC Marked Isaias at 15.8N this evening.

This morning, they forecast it to be at 16.9N now.
Last night, they forecast it to be at 17.4N now.

East shifts for a system that's continuing to run South of forecast doesn't entirely sit right with me. Tomorrow, we should finally have answers. Should the NHC deem TS Watches necessary for parts of SFL, logically they would be issued at 11am or 5pm (at the latest).