ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SFLcane]

Does anyone think that a cat.1 hurricane is still possible for us here in South Florida, especially if a reformation occurs north of Hispaniola?I know it is not in the official forecast but I am nervous to wake up in the morning with a possible forecast change.

It’s not out of the question it could attain cat 1 intensity as it nears SFL. If I were a betting man sometime tomorrow that track will be out in the Bahamas. It’s hard to say but one thing is for sure we are not done with the shifts.

[STRiZZY]

NHC Marked Isaias at 15.8N this evening.

This morning, they forecast it to be at 16.9N now.
Last night, they forecast it to be at 17.4N now.

East shifts for a system that's continuing to run South of forecast doesn't entirely sit right with me. Tomorrow, we should finally have answers. Should the NHC deem TS Watches necessary for parts of SFL, logically they would be issued at 11am or 5pm (at the latest).

That's my feeling. Not to mention the "WNW" heading it's supposedly been on for 24hrs has been way off. They have it at a 285 heading and earlier it was a 295 heading yet it's gone net south.
It was mentioned that the heading has been suspect though.

[GeneratorPower]

NHC Marked Isaias at 15.8N this evening.

This morning, they forecast it to be at 16.9N now.
Last night, they forecast it to be at 17.4N now.

East shifts for a system that's continuing to run South of forecast doesn't entirely sit right with me. Tomorrow, we should finally have answers. Should the NHC deem TS Watches necessary for parts of SFL, logically they would be issued at 11am or 5pm (at the latest).

That's my feeling. Not to mention the "WNW" heading it's supposedly been on for 24hrs has been way off. They have it at a 285 heading and earlier it was a 295 heading yet it's gone net south.
It was mentioned that the heading has been suspect though.

Center relocations don’t count as movement.

[CrazyC83]

This seems to be a mixture of Ernesto 2006 and Irene 2011 right now - and it all depends on what happens to the center and where it goes. A reformation north could change things.

[TheStormExpert]

Hopefully this helps y'all.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TjlWGFdUfro

Who comes up with these names!?

[STRiZZY]

NHC Marked Isaias at 15.8N this evening.

This morning, they forecast it to be at 16.9N now.
Last night, they forecast it to be at 17.4N now.

East shifts for a system that's continuing to run South of forecast doesn't entirely sit right with me. Tomorrow, we should finally have answers. Should the NHC deem TS Watches necessary for parts of SFL, logically they would be issued at 11am or 5pm (at the latest).

That's my feeling. Not to mention the "WNW" heading it's supposedly been on for 24hrs has been way off. They have it at a 285 heading and earlier it was a 295 heading yet it's gone net south.
It was mentioned that the heading has been suspect though.

Center relocations don’t count as movement.

It didn't relocate, they had the wrong "center" the whole time.

you can see the dive south.

[AnnularCane]

How many storms come with their own pronunciation guide?

[STRiZZY]

How many storms come with their own pronunciation guide?

Most confusing since Georges.

[Hurricaneman]

A 285 heading would keep it south of Hispaniola If it keeps heading that way and more likely an either landfall in Eastern Cuba or through the Windward passage

[STRiZZY]

A 285 heading would keep it south of Hispaniola If it keeps heading that way and more likely an either landfall in Eastern Cuba or through the Windward passage

Yeah and in reality it's been more on a 275ish bearing since it left the LAs.

[HurricaneFrances04]

Puerto Rico radar seems to suggest that the storm isn't that organized yet - http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~mnissenbaum/Rad ... /loop.html

Storms moving both ESE to WNW and NNE to SSW

[Hurricaneman]

A 285 heading would keep it south of Hispaniola If it keeps heading that way and more likely an either landfall in Eastern Cuba or through the Windward passage

Yeah and in reality it's been more on a 275ish bearing since it left the LAs.

The reason I’m not going with Yucatán channel or western Cuba right now is that there is a strong trough developing and should keep this away from there but a similar system to Ernesto 2006 is very plausible

[TheDreamTraveler]

pretty sure this sums everything up.. ( and no thats not actually dry air)

https://i.ibb.co/FXYvt0P/321321.gif

Looking at it that way it actually looks very good lol

[STRiZZY]

A 285 heading would keep it south of Hispaniola If it keeps heading that way and more likely an either landfall in Eastern Cuba or through the Windward passage

Yeah and in reality it's been more on a 275ish bearing since it left the LAs.

The reason I’m not going with Yucatán channel or western Cuba right now is that there is a strong trough developing and should keep this away from there but a similar system to Ernesto 2006 is very plausible

Yeah I remember that storm, I was living in Melbourne at the time. I can see that happening.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Puerto Rico radar seems to suggest that the storm isn't that organized yet - http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~mnissenbaum/Rad ... /loop.html

Storms moving both ESE to WNW and NNE to SSW

You can actually see the center on that radar. Just look a little south of the eastern tip of PR. It is in a ball of thunderstorms. It appears to be heading for the Mona Passage I believe.

[Beef Stew]

Tomorrow should be interesting. I'm almost fully expecting to see some more windshield-wiping between the models given the current state of things. One thing's for sure- I feel for anyone who has to forecast Isaias' track, or pronounce his name on live TV.

[BobHarlem]

Puerto Rico radar seems to suggest that the storm isn't that organized yet - http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~mnissenbaum/Rad ... /loop.html

Storms moving both ESE to WNW and NNE to SSW

You can actually see the center on that radar. Just look a little south of the eastern tip of PR. It is in a ball of thunderstorms. It appears to be heading for the Mona Passage I believe.

That's a flare up you can see on the satellite in the NE Quad, not really the center, the center is SW of there check 15.8n 67W it's out of good range of that radar, unfortunately.

[Hurricaneman]

My forecast for Isaias

Looks like it will move through the Mona Passage and miss Florida by 20miles and Landfall in Cape Hatteras and move NNE into Montauk NY and Warwick RI at 144 hrs

Intensity may be a worry if this goes up the eastern seaboard

Intensity Forecast

Now. 45mph
12hrs.40mph
24hrs 45mph Turks and Caicos
36hrs 50mph
48hrs 60mph Over Andros Island
60hrs 65mph
72hrs 75mph 20mi from Palm Beach
84hrs 75mph
96hrs 85mph
108hrs 100mph
120hrs 115mph over Cape Hatteras
144hrs 100mph over Warwick RI

These numbers follow the HWRF as it seems to be what the globals are trending towards but will admit this could be bullish but do expect a hurricane up the eastern seaboard

[Hypercane_Kyle]

One thing is becoming more clear, The SpaceX/NASA Demo-2 that is set to return and splash down off one of the coasts of Florida on SUNDAY is almost certainly going to need to be delayed.

Bob and Doug will get a few more days on the ISS to view our planet.

What's crazy is their launch was delayed by Tropical Storm Bertha. Now their landing is getting delayed by Isaias.

[Craters]

If it's true and NHC folks do check in here, I'd humbly like to suggest that "Ichabod" be added to the list of potential "I"-named storms. That way, if it were to run into shear and the top got lopped off, well. . . you know.

Plus, it's easy to pronounce.