ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion: AF Plane 315 miles from 00z position
My conservative guess 895 and 160 knot
My bullish guess 880 and 180 knots
When the recon leaves
My bullish guess 880 and 180 knots
When the recon leaves
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion: AF Plane 315 miles from 00z position
Goni and this not even 3 days apart is just surreal. 
I can't even imagine what recon might find. They might even find sub-900...

I can't even imagine what recon might find. They might even find sub-900...
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Some Californian who codes things and tracks weather.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion: AF Plane 255 miles from 00z position
Just when I thought it couldn't get any better with Goni, Eta goes all out in true 2020 fashion
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Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion: AF Plane 255 miles from 00z position
FLY FASTER 

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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion: AF Plane 380 miles from 00z position
Sciencerocks wrote:tiger_deF wrote:I am going to be so bummed if recon finds a major ERC already underway, with enough of an outer eyewall to reduce maximum winds from what they would be
I'd like future recon planes to have jet engines that fly at 900 mph! That would be awesome to have the planes the size of the current fleet with that kind of speed. It would cover far more distance a lot faster.
Starship enterprise recon....0 to 60 in a flash.....
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion: AF Plane 255 miles from 00z position
With the way the eye is wobbling recon center fixes are gonna be jumping up and down, left and right lol.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion: AF Plane 255 miles from 00z position
recon is almost there, should only be 30-40mins from now
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B.S. Meteorology from Florida State '24 // Current M.S. Meteorology student at Florida State
Research Interests: Rapid Intensification, TC Climatology, TC Modeling
Consult the NHC for official information
Research Interests: Rapid Intensification, TC Climatology, TC Modeling
Consult the NHC for official information
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion: AF Plane 255 miles from 00z position
I am doing the play by play in the title of how many miles the AF plane is from the eye so the members can know where is the plane. This mission will be a historic one.
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and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion: AF Plane 255 miles from 00z position
There’s no way an EWRC is gonna choke this before recon gets there or even until at least another two hours. An outer eyewall building is normal but it doesn’t have enough time to choke the inner core for a couple hours.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion: AF Plane 315 miles from 00z position
Monsoonjr99 wrote:Goni and this not even 3 days apart is just surreal.
I can't even imagine what recon might find. They might even find sub-900...
I believe definitely will find sub 900
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion: AF Plane 255 miles from 00z position
Anyone see any signs of an oncoming ERC?
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion: AF Plane 255 miles from 00z position
https://twitter.com/WxPatel/status/1323431727612788737
We're actually seeing a bonefide T8.0 in the Atlantic...in November.
We're actually seeing a bonefide T8.0 in the Atlantic...in November.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion: AF Plane 255 miles from 00z position
Ian2401 wrote:recon is almost there, should only be 30-40mins from now
So, now would be a good time to charge my phone.

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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion: AF Plane 255 miles from 00z position
cycloneye wrote:I am doing the play by play in the title of how many miles the AF plane is from the eye so the members can know where is the plane. This mission will be a historic one.
Thank you. Truly historic.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion: AF Plane 255 miles from 00z position
Poleward channel just fully connected to the 200mb jet. Eta will continue to strengthen unless an ERC or landfall occurs.


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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion: AF Plane 255 miles from 00z position
This Recon mission into Eta will be extremely helpful for other agencies that don't have access to it. We will have a good 5 hours of comparing high end Dvorak estimates to actual Recon data.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion: AF Plane 255 miles from 00z position
RL3AO wrote:https://twitter.com/WxPatel/status/1323431727612788737
We're actually seeing a bonefide T8.0 in the Atlantic...in November.
Gilbert peaked T8.0 on TAFB analysis and T7.9 on ADT. Eta may not get to T8.0 from either TAFB or SAB but may very well exceed that on ADT.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion: AF Plane 255 miles from 00z position
Raw T# 8.3 (aka 205mph/880s for pressure) before adjustments.
https://twitter.com/darin_deveauWX/status/1323433417015496704
https://twitter.com/darin_deveauWX/status/1323433417015496704
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion: AF Plane 255 miles from 00z position
tiger_deF wrote:Anyone see any signs of an oncoming ERC?
I just see a positive temp pinhole eye within a <-85C CDO and frequent eyewall lightning. No sign of an EWRC yet — just absolute insanity.
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I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion: AF Plane 255 miles from 00z position
BobHarlem wrote:Raw T# 8.3 (aka 205mph/880s for pressure) before adjustments.
https://twitter.com/darin_deveauWX/status/1323433417015496704
Thats in the upper Echelon world wide
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