ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[eastcoastFL]

Looking much better and more like a storm on radar now

[underthwx]

NHC Marked Isaias at 15.8N this evening.

This morning, they forecast it to be at 16.9N now.
Last night, they forecast it to be at 17.4N now.

East shifts for a system that's continuing to run South of forecast doesn't entirely sit right with me. Tomorrow, we should finally have answers. Should the NHC deem TS Watches necessary for parts of SFL, logically they would be issued at 11am or 5pm (at the latest).

That's my feeling. Not to mention the "WNW" heading it's supposedly been on for 24hrs has been way off. They have it at a 285 heading and earlier it was a 295 heading yet it's gone net south.
It was mentioned that the heading has been suspect though.

Do yall think the track is pretty much good to go, now that it's a tropical storm now?...looks to me that there should not be much change to the track, do yall agree?...be safe

[AxaltaRacing24]

NHC Marked Isaias at 15.8N this evening.

This morning, they forecast it to be at 16.9N now.
Last night, they forecast it to be at 17.4N now.

East shifts for a system that's continuing to run South of forecast doesn't entirely sit right with me. Tomorrow, we should finally have answers. Should the NHC deem TS Watches necessary for parts of SFL, logically they would be issued at 11am or 5pm (at the latest).

That's my feeling. Not to mention the "WNW" heading it's supposedly been on for 24hrs has been way off. They have it at a 285 heading and earlier it was a 295 heading yet it's gone net south.
It was mentioned that the heading has been suspect though.

Do yall think the track is pretty much good to go, now that it's a tropical storm now?...looks to me that there should not be much change to the track, do yall agree?...be safe

nope. there's likely changes coming one way or the other.

[fci]

NHC Marked Isaias at 15.8N this evening.

This morning, they forecast it to be at 16.9N now.
Last night, they forecast it to be at 17.4N now.

East shifts for a system that's continuing to run South of forecast doesn't entirely sit right with me. Tomorrow, we should finally have answers. Should the NHC deem TS Watches necessary for parts of SFL, logically they would be issued at 11am or 5pm (at the latest).

That's my feeling. Not to mention the "WNW" heading it's supposedly been on for 24hrs has been way off. They have it at a 285 heading and earlier it was a 295 heading yet it's gone net south.
It was mentioned that the heading has been suspect though.

I think a lot of the variability is due to the inability to pinpoint the center. It is possible that the northern lobe will end up being the center and that is far north. TS winds out to 325 miles mostly NE of the center.
It is still a blob tilting NE to SW.
It is so big that Hispañola might not kill it off since the circulation will possibly be over the entire island.
Our forecast here in South Florida will really be predicated on exactly where this consolidates after its date with Hispañola.
If it actually consolidates to the north it would mostly miss the Island.
In fact, the advisory released as I type this has it at 16.7 not far from where you said it was forecast this morning albeit 3 hours earlier.
Yes, this is a strange one....

[ColdMiser123]

Almost a degree latitude north of the 11 pm position coordinates with the 2 am update.

[hurricanedude]

Almost a degree latitude north of the 11 pm position coordinates with the 2 am update.

You like the east coast threat? If so you think Va Beach could get some action?

[ColdMiser123]

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1288709075325399040

[ColdMiser123]

Almost a degree latitude north of the 11 pm position coordinates with the 2 am update.

You like the east coast threat? If so you think Va Beach could get some action?

Anyone who is on the east coast should be watching this pretty closely. How strong the ridge is to the east will determine the exact re-curvature track of the storm.

[hurricaneCW]

Almost a degree latitude north of the 11 pm position coordinates with the 2 am update.

You like the east coast threat? If so you think Va Beach could get some action?

Anyone who is on the east coast should be watching this pretty closely. How strong the ridge is to the east will determine the exact re-curvature track of the storm.

Early indicators show it moving quickly up the east coast either onshore or just east. Maybe an Edna track with impacts in eastern NE.

I have no idea how strong it'll be but models spewing 960-970mbs is somewhat worrisome.

[Blown Away]

Almost a degree latitude north of the 11 pm position coordinates with the 2 am update.

That may adjust the track just far enough N to move over N DR Coast and off Cuba. Isaias will exit DR quicker and spend more time over water as he makes an approach towards FL.

[Highteeld]

This is a little reminiscent of what happened with Dorian last year on its way to PR regarding the dominant CB and subsequent latent heat release aiding in re-centering the main LLC.

[NXStumpy_Robothing]

Am I going crazy or is the storm currently attempting to make landfall on the southwestern edge of Puerto Rico?


Center might be a bit south of where I've drawn, but I was going off of the best I could tell based off of the 2 am intermediate update, radar motion, and satellite imagery.

[Chemmers]

It looks like it is trying to miss dr all together maybe

[NDG]

Pressures are falling along the southern coast of PR, so indeed the LLC might be reforming further north closer to the convection.

[AdamFirst]

Never seen this before: NWS San Juan issuing severe thunderstorm warnings during the passage of a storm

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service San Juan PR
347 AM AST Thu Jul 30 2020

The National Weather Service in San Juan has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Comerio Municipality in Puerto Rico...
Vega Baja Municipality in Puerto Rico...
Aguas Buenas Municipality in Puerto Rico...
Naranjito Municipality in Puerto Rico...
Vega Alta Municipality in Puerto Rico...
Dorado Municipality in Puerto Rico...
Bayamon Municipality in Puerto Rico...
Barranquitas Municipality in Puerto Rico...
Corozal Municipality in Puerto Rico...
Cidra Municipality in Puerto Rico...
Toa Baja Municipality in Puerto Rico...
Toa Alta Municipality in Puerto Rico...

* Until 500 AM AST

* At 344 AM AST, a band from Isaias is producing damaging winds from
Cidra and Aguas Buenas northward to Vega Baja and Toa Alta. This
band will result in dangerous winds and torrential rainfall across
these municipalities. Please, exercise caution.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This is a DANGEROUS SITUATION. These storms are producing widespread
wind damage across eastern interior, interior and north central
Puerto Rico. SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy structure and stay
away from windows!

[GCANE]

Interesting new LL vort showing up over Haiti, extending into the Carib

[NDG]

Interesting new LL vort showing up over Haiti, extending into the Carib

https://i.imgur.com/ZiRwyFh.gif

That's produced by the NE winds blowing across the mountains of Hispaniola, picked up nicely by the Euro. Notice the feature shift as the storm passes Hispaniola and winds shift to the SE.

[NDG]

Here's another look at the ASCAT from last night showing the closed circulation nicely. I think it has been doing a cyclonic loop just like models were showing yesterday. Gaining latitude during the night after this shot.

[Hammy]

Interesting new LL vort showing up over Haiti, extending into the Carib

https://i.imgur.com/ZiRwyFh.gif

That's produced by the NE winds blowing across the mountains of Hispaniola, picked up nicely by the Euro. Notice the feature shift as the storm passes Hispaniola and winds shift to the SE.

https://i.imgur.com/9TCMBmK.gif

Yet another thing this has in common with Isaac in 2012, a storm it's generally behaving very similarly to.

[NDG]

Latest position. Winds up to 60 mph.


5:00 AM AST Thu Jul 30
Location: 17.2°N 67.9°W
Moving: NW at 21 mph
Min pressure: 1003 mb
Max sustained: 60 mph