ATL: HANNA - Remnants - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion- 2 PM TWO 70%/80%

#181 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Jul 22, 2020 1:36 pm

lrak wrote:I'm glad to read it will not have too much wind. Little worried about power for our hospitals.


Dont get stuck on that idea yet.. you know how this goes..
1 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...

supercane4867
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4966
Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#182 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Jul 22, 2020 1:37 pm

TXNT27 KNES 221824
TCSNTL

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (91L)

B. 22/1731Z

C. 24.7N

D. 88.3W

E. FIVE/GOES-E

F. T1.0/1.0

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...LARGER THAN 2/10 BANDING RESULTED IN A DT OF 1.0. MET AND
PT ARE 1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...ZHU
1 likes   

User avatar
lrak
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1770
Age: 58
Joined: Thu Jun 21, 2007 2:48 pm
Location: Corpus Christi, TX

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion- 2 PM TWO 70%/80%

#183 Postby lrak » Wed Jul 22, 2020 1:39 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
lrak wrote:I'm glad to read it will not have too much wind. Little worried about power for our hospitals.


Dont get stuck on that idea yet.. you know how this goes..



ACK!!! :eek:

I Googled backup generators for hospitals. Major ones have 4 days and the rural ones have 1 to 2 days of backup power.
0 likes   
AKA karl

Also
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
My posts on this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. My posts are my basic observations and are definitely not backed by any "well some" meteorological knowledge. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Stormcenter
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6684
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:27 am
Location: Houston, TX

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#184 Postby Stormcenter » Wed Jul 22, 2020 1:44 pm

This system will also affect a good portion of the LA.
coast.
0 likes   

User avatar
tiger_deF
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 468
Age: 24
Joined: Tue Sep 27, 2016 11:47 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#185 Postby tiger_deF » Wed Jul 22, 2020 1:47 pm

Seems like the opposite of Gonzalo, while gonzalo is a very small compact system surrounded by large amounts of dry air, 91L is a large area of moisture and convection in a moist environment with a much broader, shallower llc
0 likes   

User avatar
HurricaneBrain
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 520
Joined: Thu Jun 30, 2011 2:07 pm

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion- 2 PM TWO 70%/80%

#186 Postby HurricaneBrain » Wed Jul 22, 2020 1:51 pm

It has 48 hours over warm Gulf waters and little shear, it’s not going poof...
jaguars_22 wrote:looks like its fixing to go poof again. Just like 90l did in the evenings
2 likes   

User avatar
TexasSam
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 573
Age: 66
Joined: Thu Aug 28, 2003 12:16 am
Location: Port Arthur, Texas

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#187 Postby TexasSam » Wed Jul 22, 2020 1:53 pm

gfsperpendicular wrote:
HurricaneFrances04 wrote:Sounds like the door is open for a PTC at minimum.


Don't they usually wait on PTC advisories until they want to issue watches? In that case, we would probably have to wait until tomorrow.


Ok you got me on this one. PTC??
0 likes   

jaguars_22
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 590
Joined: Tue Jun 20, 2017 2:26 pm
Location: Victoria TX

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#188 Postby jaguars_22 » Wed Jul 22, 2020 1:55 pm

Just havent seen the blow up around the center lately and convection looks like its waning... Just my opinion and its hard to see where exactly the center is
0 likes   

davidiowx
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 390
Joined: Tue Sep 10, 2013 11:07 am
Location: Richmond, TX

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#189 Postby davidiowx » Wed Jul 22, 2020 1:55 pm

TexasSam wrote:
gfsperpendicular wrote:
HurricaneFrances04 wrote:Sounds like the door is open for a PTC at minimum.


Don't they usually wait on PTC advisories until they want to issue watches? In that case, we would probably have to wait until tomorrow.


Ok you got me on this one. PTC??


Potential Tropical Cyclone
0 likes   

BobHarlem
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2102
Joined: Thu Oct 20, 2005 6:11 pm

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#190 Postby BobHarlem » Wed Jul 22, 2020 1:56 pm

TexasSam wrote:
gfsperpendicular wrote:
HurricaneFrances04 wrote:Sounds like the door is open for a PTC at minimum.


Don't they usually wait on PTC advisories until they want to issue watches? In that case, we would probably have to wait until tomorrow.


Ok you got me on this one. PTC??


Potential Tropical Cyclone advisories, they introduced this a few years back to handle the case of rapidly developing systems near the coast. It's only used when a system is not quite a depression, but expected to be a storm before the watch/warning window is up. They only use it if they need to put up Tropical Storm Watches/Warnings before a storm has technically formed. TV Weather people tend to hate it because it confuses folks. Not to be confused with Post Tropical Cyclone, which also shares the acronym.
Last edited by BobHarlem on Wed Jul 22, 2020 1:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.
2 likes   

abk_0710
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 30
Joined: Thu May 28, 2020 6:55 pm
Location: Louisiana

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#191 Postby abk_0710 » Wed Jul 22, 2020 1:56 pm

Where are we thinking the watches and warnings will be setting up in LA?
0 likes   

User avatar
TexasSam
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 573
Age: 66
Joined: Thu Aug 28, 2003 12:16 am
Location: Port Arthur, Texas

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#192 Postby TexasSam » Wed Jul 22, 2020 1:58 pm

davidiowx wrote:
TexasSam wrote:
gfsperpendicular wrote:
Don't they usually wait on PTC advisories until they want to issue watches? In that case, we would probably have to wait until tomorrow.


Ok you got me on this one. PTC??


Potential Tropical Cyclone


Thanks!
0 likes   

User avatar
HurricaneBrain
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 520
Joined: Thu Jun 30, 2011 2:07 pm

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#193 Postby HurricaneBrain » Wed Jul 22, 2020 2:01 pm

If you’re looking at the IR on Levi’s site, the frame jumps from 16:02Z to 17:32Z which is a glitch in the data. It gives an illusion that it significantly collapsed. That’s why it seems like such a dropoff in convection and structure. It’s actually maintaining its current structure, spin, and convection from an hour or so ago.
jaguars_22 wrote:Just havent seen the blow up around the center lately and convection looks like its waning... Just my opinion and its hard to see where exactly the center is
0 likes   

User avatar
captainbarbossa19
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 1092
Age: 27
Joined: Wed Aug 21, 2019 11:09 pm
Location: Beaumont, TX

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#194 Postby captainbarbossa19 » Wed Jul 22, 2020 2:03 pm

BobHarlem wrote:
TexasSam wrote:
gfsperpendicular wrote:
Don't they usually wait on PTC advisories until they want to issue watches? In that case, we would probably have to wait until tomorrow.


Ok you got me on this one. PTC??


Potential Tropical Cyclone advisories, they introduced this a few years back to handle the case of rapidly developing systems near the coast. It's only used when a system is not quite a depression, but expected to be a storm before the watch/warning window is up. They only use it if they need to put up Tropical Storm Watches/Warnings before a storm has technically formed. TV Weather people tend to hate it because it confuses folks. Not to be confused with Post Tropical Cyclone, which also shares the acronym.


I still don't understand why the hurricane center decided to start using this terminology. I know that it's purpose is to help raise awareness of a storm's presence, but I think for many people, it is quite confusing.
0 likes   

User avatar
HurricaneEnzo
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 739
Joined: Wed Mar 14, 2018 12:18 pm
Location: Newport, NC (Hurricane Alley)

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion- 2 PM TWO 70%/80%

#195 Postby HurricaneEnzo » Wed Jul 22, 2020 2:04 pm

HurricaneBrain wrote:It has 48 hours over warm Gulf waters and little shear, it’s not going poof...
jaguars_22 wrote:looks like its fixing to go poof again. Just like 90l did in the evenings


I don't think so either. The air around seems to be at least fairly moist and if there is moisture to be found in the area that huge circulation is definitely gonna feed on it lol.
0 likes   
Bertha 96' - Fran 96' - Bonnie 98' - Dennis 99' - Floyd 99' - Isabel 03' - Alex 04' - Ophelia 05' - Irene 11' - Arthur 14' - Matthew 16' - Florence 18' - Dorian 19' - Isaias 20' (countless other tropical storms and Hurricane swipes)

I am not a Professional Met just an enthusiast. Get your weather forecasts from the Pros!

Stormcenter
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6684
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:27 am
Location: Houston, TX

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#196 Postby Stormcenter » Wed Jul 22, 2020 2:10 pm

The entire structure of the storm looks impressive
but I am having a difficult time locating the exact
center. IMO

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES1 ... 0x1000.gif
0 likes   

User avatar
Hammy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5849
Age: 41
Joined: Fri May 25, 2012 5:25 pm
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#197 Postby Hammy » Wed Jul 22, 2020 2:11 pm

captainbarbossa19 wrote:
BobHarlem wrote:
TexasSam wrote:
Ok you got me on this one. PTC??


Potential Tropical Cyclone advisories, they introduced this a few years back to handle the case of rapidly developing systems near the coast. It's only used when a system is not quite a depression, but expected to be a storm before the watch/warning window is up. They only use it if they need to put up Tropical Storm Watches/Warnings before a storm has technically formed. TV Weather people tend to hate it because it confuses folks. Not to be confused with Post Tropical Cyclone, which also shares the acronym.


I still don't understand why the hurricane center decided to start using this terminology. I know that it's purpose is to help raise awareness of a storm's presence, but I think for many people, it is quite confusing.



I believe it was a response to Hurricane Sandy becoming extratropical before moving inland as well as several instances of storms developing rapidly before moving inland even though there was a trackable precursor disturbance.
2 likes   
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
HurricaneEnzo
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 739
Joined: Wed Mar 14, 2018 12:18 pm
Location: Newport, NC (Hurricane Alley)

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#198 Postby HurricaneEnzo » Wed Jul 22, 2020 2:19 pm

Hammy wrote:
captainbarbossa19 wrote:
BobHarlem wrote:
Potential Tropical Cyclone advisories, they introduced this a few years back to handle the case of rapidly developing systems near the coast. It's only used when a system is not quite a depression, but expected to be a storm before the watch/warning window is up. They only use it if they need to put up Tropical Storm Watches/Warnings before a storm has technically formed. TV Weather people tend to hate it because it confuses folks. Not to be confused with Post Tropical Cyclone, which also shares the acronym.


I still don't understand why the hurricane center decided to start using this terminology. I know that it's purpose is to help raise awareness of a storm's presence, but I think for many people, it is quite confusing.



I believe it was a response to Hurricane Sandy becoming extratropical before moving inland as well as several instances of storms developing rapidly before moving inland even though there was a trackable precursor disturbance.


Yeah it's hard to find a 'perfect' way to do it. I feel like this will get the word to more people than the previous way of doing business. At least give some folks that take heed an advanced warning instead of dropping a TS warning on them a couple of hours before a system landfalls.

Back to the storm, hopefully the fact that it has such a large circulation will at least help keep the intensity in check somewhat. Gonna have to work harder than a much smaller system would. No time to let your guard down though as 2 or 3 days over the Gulf is still plenty of time.
Last edited by HurricaneEnzo on Wed Jul 22, 2020 2:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Bertha 96' - Fran 96' - Bonnie 98' - Dennis 99' - Floyd 99' - Isabel 03' - Alex 04' - Ophelia 05' - Irene 11' - Arthur 14' - Matthew 16' - Florence 18' - Dorian 19' - Isaias 20' (countless other tropical storms and Hurricane swipes)

I am not a Professional Met just an enthusiast. Get your weather forecasts from the Pros!

jaguars_22
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 590
Joined: Tue Jun 20, 2017 2:26 pm
Location: Victoria TX

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#199 Postby jaguars_22 » Wed Jul 22, 2020 2:20 pm

Im wondering if the center is in the middle of the 2 areas of convection. I see spin but its weird :)
0 likes   

User avatar
EquusStorm
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1649
Age: 34
Joined: Thu Nov 07, 2013 1:04 pm
Location: Jasper, AL
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#200 Postby EquusStorm » Wed Jul 22, 2020 2:22 pm

I've wondered if Bill in 2015 could have been a major impetus for the development of PTC designation, as it was exactly the type of scenario that said designation was designed to assist
0 likes   
Colors of lost purpose on the canvas of irrelevance

Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.


Return to “2020”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 5 guests