ATL: BETA - Remnants - Discussion

[HurricaneAndre2008]

1005.6 mb
(~ 29.70 inHg)

[dantonlsu]

Got my cast off this afternoon - only a wrist brace. The titanium has fused with my skeleton to make me extra strong. As for 90L, there is much uncertainty in its long-term future. Models agree it will move steadily northward for 2-3 days then run into weak steering currents. During that 2-3 days, it will be ingesting a lot of dry air from behind the front. It may even merge with the front for a while. However, by early next week, the frontal boundary will be dissipating, allowing for strengthening. General thinking is a drift westward toward the lower to middle Texas coast early next week. Big question is - does it just continue moving west and inland into TX Tuesday, as per the GFS? Does it only approach the TX coast then stall,waiting for a passing trof to the north to pick it up and steer it NE (Euro, ICON)? UKMET takes it to the coast of MX south of Brownsville next Tue/Wed and stalls it. It did very well with Sally.

I have it moving toward TX Mon/Tue, dipping SW then turning E-ENE Wed-Thu (70kt hurricane at day 7). Would rather it just move inland into south TX or Mexico early next week. That could happen...

WX - Do you think Houston is in play for this one?

[Nimbus]

Just took a first look in about 5 hours This thing has got to be a T.D...... might be close to a T.S.! This has escalated a good deal today and what appeared as an elongated COC this morning, now appears to have developed a fairly tight LLC. I hadn't heard if recon will get there soon but if so, I'm pretty sure we'll have a T.D. at 5:00pm

Buoy 42055 near the center had one wind gust near 38 knots so could be named but with spaghetti model runs who needs the headaches?

[wxman57]

Got my cast off this afternoon - only a wrist brace. The titanium has fused with my skeleton to make me extra strong. As for 90L, there is much uncertainty in its long-term future. Models agree it will move steadily northward for 2-3 days then run into weak steering currents. During that 2-3 days, it will be ingesting a lot of dry air from behind the front. It may even merge with the front for a while. However, by early next week, the frontal boundary will be dissipating, allowing for strengthening. General thinking is a drift westward toward the lower to middle Texas coast early next week. Big question is - does it just continue moving west and inland into TX Tuesday, as per the GFS? Does it only approach the TX coast then stall,waiting for a passing trof to the north to pick it up and steer it NE (Euro, ICON)? UKMET takes it to the coast of MX south of Brownsville next Tue/Wed and stalls it. It did very well with Sally.

I have it moving toward TX Mon/Tue, dipping SW then turning E-ENE Wed-Thu (70kt hurricane at day 7). Would rather it just move inland into south TX or Mexico early next week. That could happen...

WX - Do you think Houston is in play for this one?

VERY unlikely - I have 20 gallons of gas stored in the backyard getting ready for Laura. It knows I'm too prepared to come here. Recon found a little swirl down there, which has been evident. Not enough to call it a TD in my opinion, but who knows what the folks at the NHC are thinking? Winds under 30 kts.

[wxman57]

Buoy to the east definitely NOT supportive of an upgrade to a TS. It indicates a weak LLC is present.

[wxman57]

I think the EC Ensembles have the track NAILED!

[Cpv17]

Got my cast off this afternoon - only a wrist brace. The titanium has fused with my skeleton to make me extra strong. As for 90L, there is much uncertainty in its long-term future. Models agree it will move steadily northward for 2-3 days then run into weak steering currents. During that 2-3 days, it will be ingesting a lot of dry air from behind the front. It may even merge with the front for a while. However, by early next week, the frontal boundary will be dissipating, allowing for strengthening. General thinking is a drift westward toward the lower to middle Texas coast early next week. Big question is - does it just continue moving west and inland into TX Tuesday, as per the GFS? Does it only approach the TX coast then stall,waiting for a passing trof to the north to pick it up and steer it NE (Euro, ICON)? UKMET takes it to the coast of MX south of Brownsville next Tue/Wed and stalls it. It did very well with Sally.

I have it moving toward TX Mon/Tue, dipping SW then turning E-ENE Wed-Thu (70kt hurricane at day 7). Would rather it just move inland into south TX or Mexico early next week. That could happen...

WX - Do you think Houston is in play for this one?

Not 57, but I do think SETX could see considerable rainfall from this.

[Nimbus]

Spaghetti model motto - if you choose not to decide, you still have made a choice.

[wxman57]

Got my cast off this afternoon - only a wrist brace. The titanium has fused with my skeleton to make me extra strong. As for 90L, there is much uncertainty in its long-term future. Models agree it will move steadily northward for 2-3 days then run into weak steering currents. During that 2-3 days, it will be ingesting a lot of dry air from behind the front. It may even merge with the front for a while. However, by early next week, the frontal boundary will be dissipating, allowing for strengthening. General thinking is a drift westward toward the lower to middle Texas coast early next week. Big question is - does it just continue moving west and inland into TX Tuesday, as per the GFS? Does it only approach the TX coast then stall,waiting for a passing trof to the north to pick it up and steer it NE (Euro, ICON)? UKMET takes it to the coast of MX south of Brownsville next Tue/Wed and stalls it. It did very well with Sally.

I have it moving toward TX Mon/Tue, dipping SW then turning E-ENE Wed-Thu (70kt hurricane at day 7). Would rather it just move inland into south TX or Mexico early next week. That could happen...

WX - Do you think Houston is in play for this one?

Not 57, but I do think SETX could see considerable rainfall from this.

I sure HOPE we get some rain out of it, but I'm not sure we will get anything out of it.

[Cpv17]

WX - Do you think Houston is in play for this one?

Not 57, but I do think SETX could see considerable rainfall from this.

I sure HOPE we get some rain out of it, but I'm not sure we will get anything out of it.

Yeah no kidding. Dry as a bone here in Wharton County.

[wx98]

Looks very weak, and the center looks a tad broad to me.

[edu2703]

 https://twitter.com/SteveWAFB/status/1306710001088696321

[GCANE]

Plenty of 20 knot FL west winds. Running at 980mb (820 ft)

[northjaxpro]

It is a broad surface reflection for the time being, but I think it is enough to classify it as a TD.

[GCANE]

Bursty towers with CAPE continuing to decrease and widen around them.

[ClarCari]

Convection looked better earlier and might even have briefly been a TS but thats not uncommon with developing TCs.
If this isn’t given TD22 tonight, I’d bet alot that it could actually become a stronger TS by morning after DMAX.

[xironman]

It is a broad surface reflection for the time being, but I think it is enough to classify it as a TD.

I can't see why they would not go with TD

SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 31 kts (35.7 mph)

[northjaxpro]

It is a broad surface reflection for the time being, but I think it is enough to classify it as a TD.

I can't see why they would not go with TD

SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 31 kts (35.7 mph)

I agree with you. There is sufficient evidence this is a TD. Recon also finding winds nearing TS force as well.

[cycloneye]

There is the low center.

[La Breeze]

It is a broad surface reflection for the time being, but I think it is enough to classify it as a TD.

I can't see why they would not go with TD

SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 31 kts (35.7 mph)

All in due time, I suppose.