ATL: DELTA - Models

[Steve]

HMON @ 81 hours

[Steve]

JMA at 72 hours at 500mb shows why this isn't likely going to hit the FL Peninsula (higher the pressure, redder the shading).

[tailgater]

Eastward shift but not sure I buy the intensity,

[Steve]

HMON landfalls at Plaquemines Parish early Friday morning. It gets stronger than all other runs so sort of does the opposite of the ICON and comes up farther east. This looks to hook off and hit Hancock or Harrison County after crossing the Mississippi River Delta. I think the HWRF will be slightly west and 10-12mb weaker when it gets to landfall.

[3090]

JMA at 72 hours at 500mb shows why this isn't likely going to hit the FL Peninsula (higher the pressure, redder the shading).
https://i.imgur.com/zDB5t4q.jpg

Wait, previously you were talking all the way over to Panama City? The very strong steering flow is in place going forward. Once Delta gets rolling in the GOM poleward, it will be rolling like a freight train towards the central LA coast.

[Steve]

JMA at 72 hours at 500mb shows why this isn't likely going to hit the FL Peninsula (higher the pressure, redder the shading).
https://i.imgur.com/zDB5t4q.jpg

Wait, previously you were talking all the way over to Panama City? The very strong steering flow is in place going forward. Once Delta gets rolling in the GOM poleward, it will be rolling like a freight train towards the central LA coast.

That was the Eastern extremity of where I think it would come in. What I said was don't completely discount a Bay County landfall - not that I'm calling for one. Also, Peninsula vs. Panhandle

[Steve]

HMON second landfall at Jackson County, MS or around Pascagoula, MS.

[LowerAlabamaTider]

JMA at 72 hours at 500mb shows why this isn't likely going to hit the FL Peninsula (higher the pressure, redder the shading).
https://i.imgur.com/zDB5t4q.jpg

Wait, previously you were talking all the way over to Panama City? The very strong steering flow is in place going forward. Once Delta gets rolling in the GOM poleward, it will be rolling like a freight train towards the central LA coast.

When & where the below occurs . . .

A northwestward heading around the southwestern portion of a deep-layer ridge should begin
tonight or Tuesday, and that general motion with some increase in
forward speed is expected to continue through 60-72 hours. After
that time, a broad mid- to upper-level trough is forecast to develop
over the south-central United States, which should weaken the
western portion of the ridge and cause Delta to turn northward
toward the northern Gulf Coast. After day 4, Delta should begin to
accelerate north-northeastward or northeastward ahead of the
aforementioned trough.

[Steve]

HWRF shows this weakening pretty rapidly at landfall on Friday morning west of and weaker than the HMON.

[cp79]

That’s good news that it’s gonna weaken before landfall. Conditions in northern gulf not expected to be ideal. Still should produce a lot of rain for areas in La. and over to Fla. panhandle.

[SoupBone]

The Euro at 96 hours is getting uncomfortably close to the Texas coast.

[BigB0882]

The Euro at 96 hours is getting uncomfortably close to the Texas coast.

The Euro has been playing catch up all year. Maybe it will finally win one but not sure what is wrong with it this year.

[stormlover2013]

EURO is slower and shift west

[SoupBone]

EURO is slower and shift west

The Euro is trying to throw a kink in the forecast and put SE Texas in the cone.

[PTrackerLA]

12z Euro into Vermilion Parish, LA but rapidly weakening on approach

[stormlover2013]

Euro been west bias all year maybe he will get one storm right lol

[LowerAlabamaTider]

I know it is early, but beginning to wonder if this one may stay well west of SE MS, and SW AL. Lots of time left for sure, but models sure seem to be heading that way.

[DestinHurricane]

I know it is early, but beginning to wonder if this one may stay well west of SE MS, and SW AL. Lots of time left for sure, but models sure seem to be heading that way.

I'm wondering the same. I'm not calling all clear for panhandle yet but the chances seem to be going down.

[Blinhart]

Just saw on TWC, the spaghetti models of all the models is pretty much inside the Cone.

[shiny-pebble]

This is insane