ATL: SALLY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[us89]

Whoa, NOAA plane extrapolated a 984 mb pressure on that pass.

I know there may be a low bias with that, but this isn’t a hurricane yet, it will likely be one within an hour.

[NevadaFan18]

Wow! Did not expect Cat 2 flight-lvl winds, and a pressure in the mid 980s!

[ThetaE]

Oh boy...

[Aric Dunn]

That is enough for upgrade..

[drezee]

 https://twitter.com/andretrotter/status/1305533946168578051

[tiger_deF]

I would argue this is probably the worst case scenario for the Alabama and Mississippi coastline. With how slowly the storm is moving, I believe that surge will bust higher than predicted (unlike Laura which was somewhat lower). I certainly hope people directly on the coast are evacuating right now

[us89]

I smell a special advisory coming

[aspen]

984 mbar extrapolated, almost 90 kt FL

[Ivanhater]

Still an easterly component. Not sure how much this has on track though

[DestinHurricane]

This escalated rather quickly. I think we will have hurricane at next advisory.

[NDG]

We have a hurricane!!!!!!!


URNT15 KWBC 141545
NOAA3 0719A SALLY HDOB 09 20200914
153530 2857N 08652W 6955 03114 9987 +087 //// 078068 070 069 076 01
153600 2855N 08651W 6936 03118 9961 +090 //// 093077 088 068 068 01
153630 2854N 08651W 6749 03341 9921 +098 //// 117075 082 075 044 01
153700 2852N 08650W 6797 03270 9908 +104 //// 128054 059 078 017 01
153730 2850N 08650W 6925 03112 9912 +111 //// 132040 043 074 015 01
153800 2849N 08651W 6954 03073 9896 +127 +116 143039 041 080 016 03
153830 2847N 08652W 6943 03079 9873 +138 +111 132031 034 066 005 03
153900 2846N 08654W 6954 03061 9852 +152 +118 090009 020 066 003 03
153930 2844N 08655W 6949 03068 9843 +161 +109 037007 013 067 002 03
154000 2842N 08655W 6973 03047 9847 +169 +099 094005 012 033 001 00
154030 2840N 08655W 7038 02981 9842 +187 +087 308008 013 022 001 00
154100 2837N 08655W 7068 02954 9847 +199 +082 258013 017 025 001 00
154130 2835N 08655W 7154 02857 9850 +210 +080 287015 022 030 000 00
154200 2833N 08655W 7077 02958 9898 +165 +109 276019 021 033 000 00
154230 2831N 08655W 6979 03083 9917 +150 +091 273020 021 036 000 00
154300 2829N 08655W 6956 03113 9908 +161 +061 267018 018 035 000 00
154330 2827N 08655W 6956 03118 9906 +167 +056 266019 020 033 000 00
154400 2825N 08655W 6946 03133 9904 +171 +052 257020 020 032 000 00
154430 2823N 08655W 6955 03125 9917 +163 +065 258021 024 031 000 00
154500 2820N 08655W 6942 03146 9930 +154 +067 253025 026 030 000 00

[Nimbus]

That is enough for upgrade..

Right they just updated.

[northjaxpro]

That is enough for upgrade..

Yes, it most defintely sufficiently does justify one now.

[CrazyC83]

That data supports an intensity of 75-80 kt. I think we've got a Special Advisory forthcoming.

[cfisher]

This is definitely already a Cat 2 in the NE quadrant.

[hurricaneCW]

This is definitely already a Cat 2.

I think they'll go with 85-90mph

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Looks like we saw a rapid alignment of the LLC and MLC, which resulted in what might now be in a hurricane.

[ClarCari]

Major hurricane potential just got put back on the table again. This is NOT good for anybody in it’s path.

[DestinHurricane]

This is definitely already a Cat 2 in the NE quadrant.

Not quite. FL winds are higher than surface.

[Gums]

Salute!

Yep, wrapping up and maybe shifting even further east.
For those who haven't driven the low country southwest of Mobile, we are thinking Forrest Gump country and cabins east of Pascagoula before the Dauphin Island road. And thos places can get significant surge, so the SLOSH models should be interesting this evening.

Gums sends....