ATL: LAURA - Models

[plasticup]

I forecast 86 pages of hardcore model stuff.

I hope you are happy with yourself

[Blown Away]

5pm Position: 17.1N/61.2W
8pm Position: 16.8N/62.6W

18z HWRF goes E of Puerto Rico, currently don’t see that happening unless a center reform. 18z EURO going under Cuba might be the track.

GFS/EURO are more correct than all the others IF Laura stays a weak mess all the way to the GOM.

[CrazyC83]

5pm Position: 17.1N/61.2W
8pm Position: 16.8N/62.6W

18z HWRF goes E of Puerto Rico, currently don’t see that happening unless a center reform. 18z EURO going under Cuba might be the track.

GFS/EURO are more correct than all the others IF Laura stays a weak mess all the way to the GOM.

Which is what I'm sensing too. Something like Gustav or Ike...or 1900?

[Steve]

CMC def the eastern outlier here... does it tend to have an eastern bias with most systems? Just curious since it’s been showing a sharper recurve recently.

Sometimes. It’s not been great for tracks but it certainly had the threats modeled days before they showed up on either of those models. Same for ICON. Don’t trust the track necessarily either (did well with Isaias at times) but my guess is the tighter resolutions with both of these models may have something to do with their longer term ideas and abilities to show systems that are taking 3-4-5 days to show up on the big dog models.

[gatorcane]

Very favorable environment awaits in the Gulf if Laura can make it in tact, check out that upper-level wind pattern. Ideal anticyclonic upper-level winds

[toad strangler]

it's hard to believe we had the "Recurve to the EAST of FL" brigade here less than 48 hours ago

 http://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1296977074591326208

[EquusStorm]

The Gulf setup just keeps getting more ominous if it doesn't completely die in the short term. I certainly don't wish destruction on the western Gulf but it's relieving to see the shifts away from the AL coast...

[USTropics]

Hate to use an analogy like this, but the 1900 Galveston Hurricane track is an example of a system that traveled over most of the GA/Cuba and still became a major hurricane in the GOM:

[Steve]

it's hard to believe we had the "Recurve to the EAST of FL" brigade here less than 48 hours ago

http://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1296977074591326208?s=20

Lol. I’m waiting for it to get past the keys so I can keep up with 4 threads plus life.

[LowerAlabamaTider]

It's as though they have a mind of their own, and just when you think you know where it may be going everything changes.

[TheDreamTraveler]

The Gulf setup just keeps getting more ominous if it doesn't completely die in the short term. I certainly don't wish destruction on the western Gulf but it's relieving to see the shifts away from the AL coast...

It's very likely it remains a ts or depression or even worse than that due to going over Hispaniola/Cuba. But once it gets out into the gulf will be when it can take advantage of some better conditions. Of course that depends how strong TD14 gets and how it interacts with Laura as well

[Horn1991]

Euro ensembles control, west of Galveston

Nuts

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

The Gulf setup just keeps getting more ominous if it doesn't completely die in the short term. I certainly don't wish destruction on the western Gulf but it's relieving to see the shifts away from the AL coast...

It's very likely it remains a ts or depression or even worse than that due to going over Hispaniola/Cuba. But once it gets out into the gulf will be when it can take advantage of some better conditions. Of course that depends how strong TD14 gets and how it interacts with Laura as well

Perhaps, conversely, I've seen more than one system get its heart torn out by the mountains of Hispaniola and never fully recover (bad news for the islanders, especially Haitians who usually receive a crap load of deadly flooding, but good news for those further down the line). Time will tell in this case.

[LowerAlabamaTider]

Hate to use an analogy like this, but the 1900 Galveston Hurricane track is an example of a system that traveled over most of the GA/Cuba and still became a major hurricane in the GOM:
https://i.imgur.com/3eoNMfI.png

In '79 Frederic was south of Cuba, crossed Cuba, and entered the Gulf as a weak TS, but by the time he got to Dauphin Island there were peak winds of 145 mph recorded.

[Blown Away]

it's hard to believe we had the "Recurve to the EAST of FL" brigade here less than 48 hours ago

http://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1296977074591326208?s=20

Also it was @3 days ago the Euro went E of Florida...

Well the 18z EURO shifts way S of Cuba mostly to TX/Mexico and the 18z HWRF shifts N to Fl peninsula tip then FL panhandle...

Does any model really win?

[txag2005]

As a Houstonian, this storm is pretty much scaring the hell out of me.

[cheezyWXguy]

it's hard to believe we had the "Recurve to the EAST of FL" brigade here less than 48 hours ago

http://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1296977074591326208?s=20

Also it was @3 days ago the Euro went E of Florida...

Well the 18z EURO shifts way S of Cuba mostly to TX/Mexico and the 18z HWRF shifts N to Fl peninsula tip then FL panhandle...

Does any model really win?

Nope, this is why the NHC never goes off of one model

[SouthernBreeze]

Bit of history -

Only two times since 1851 have there been two tropical systems of at least tropical storm strength in the Gulf of Mexico simultaneously:

1. September 5, 1933 - Category 3 hurricane and a 65 mph tropical storm
2. June 18, 1959 - two tropical storms

[NDG]

You do realize the HWRF has been way off on this storm so far right? Here is a run from last Tuesday of what it thought the storm would look like where it is now. Let’s say it is not even close. I won’t even go back and show the multiple CAT 5 Armageddon strikes into SE Florida:

https://i.imgur.com/abjD6Uw.gif

This is the part when I use my brains, I never believed it when it blew it up in this area in its long range forecast, and you can go through my posts. That model doesn’t do well when conditions are not perfect, when SAL is nearby. But when it blows it up consistently when even global models show a fairly good upper level environment with no SAL around that’s when I put stock on it. It may not blow up to a Cat 4 like it shows but it surely will not be a weak hurricane.

Or it may not even become a Hurricane. What about that option?

With such UL conditions, is guaranteed it will become a hurricane, eventually at some point.

[aspen]

Very favorable environment awaits in the Gulf if Laura can make it in tact, check out that upper-level wind pattern. Ideal anticyclonic upper-level winds

https://i.postimg.cc/jjBgJbYm/gfs-shear-watl-19.png

Such a good UL environment coupled with 30-31C SSTs is probably why the HWRF and HMON have consistently been bombing this out to a Category 4/5. However, such intensities are probably boosted by their northern track for Laura, which isn’t too likely as of now.