ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Steve H.]

I agree northjax, intensity uncertainty has me concerned with this system. Hopefully we will have a better idea by later today. I also agree that Charlie was steered by a trough while undergoing RI the whole time. Not saying this is the case, but as the TC is getting better organized this morning, something that has me concerned. Watching the trends today.

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[SFLcane]

I see the eastward shifts continue next couple of advisories I bet FL is completely out of the cone from this one. Looks a lot better organized this morning.

[GCANE]

GFS has been consistent in showing Isaias being under a strong UL jet 2 days out when over Andros.
How much convection will modify this is yet to be determined IMHO.

[Vdogg]

Isaias said: “What mountains”, it’s going straight through the pass. With nothing but better conditions and hot water ahead, we now have an entirely different situation on our hands. No way this doesn’t become a hurricane, and if it doesn’t make major status, I’ll be shocked.

[CM2]

Are there any upper atmospheric recon missions planned?

Well as of now we got recon going into the storm. I can't tell you how excited I am.

[DESTRUCTION5]

I see the eastward shifts continue next couple of advisories I bet FL is completely out of the cone from this one. Looks a lot better organized this morning.

Should leave same or push a button west with euro Miami to Tampa and 6z GFS shifting west this morn.

[abk_0710]

Since Isaias has already started making that NW turn, is it safe to say that the central Gulf Coast is out of any eventual path?

[NDG]

I see the eastward shifts continue next couple of advisories I bet FL is completely out of the cone from this one. Looks a lot better organized this morning.

Not when the GFS and Euro have actually shifted west, lol.

[DestinHurricane]

I see the eastward shifts continue next couple of advisories I bet FL is completely out of the cone from this one. Looks a lot better organized this morning.

Not if the ridge is stout.

[GCANE]

AF309 on the runway, transmitting telemetry.

[NDG]

Are there any upper atmospheric recon missions planned?

Well as of now we got recon going into the storm. I can't tell you how excited I am.
https://imgur.com/scVYVT8

Nice thing it will be a short trip to get there

[CM2]

Isaias said: “What mountains”, it’s going straight through the pass. With nothing but better conditions and hot water ahead, we now have an entirely different situation on our hands. No way this doesn’t become a hurricane, and if it doesn’t make major status, I’ll be shocked.

Not to say it will, but just being a solid structure quite impacts the effects those elements have on the storm. The stronger the storm, the more resistent it is to factors like that.

[Highteeld]

Isaias is trying to thread the needle right now with the mid level circulation still over water right now

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1288784752716263425

[SFLcane]

I see the eastward shifts continue next couple of advisories I bet FL is completely out of the cone from this one. Looks a lot better organized this morning.

Not when the GFS and Euro have actually shifted west, lol.

Hey NDG!

You know how it is SFL always in the cone only to get out. I keep looking at Satellite imagery this morning and is it me or this is going to get out of the islands with much trouble?

[Nimbus]

Still could be some Low Level energy south of the convection that we will be able to see with the visible loop later.
Buoy reports of SSE winds east of the Mona passage and the convection evolution certainly make it look like much of the energy is headed to the north coast of Hispaniola. Stronger system will resist shear but if the troughiness along the eastern CONUS persists and doesn't fill(from stronger storm outflow) models might recurve the system.

[Hd444]

Mcc forming with mcv. The llc will reform into the blob north of dr. Rapid intensificstion likely into a major in a few days .

[GCANE]

Massive hot tower in the Mona now.
Good thing they are taking a C130 instead of a P3.

[GCANE]

Massive hot tower in the Mona now.
Good thing they are taking a C130 instead of a P3.

In the air

[HurricaneEnzo]

Isaias is trying to thread the needle right now with the mid level circulation still over water right now

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1288784752716263425

Looks like maybe some slight land interaction will occur but minimal at best. Someone posted a graphic earlier showing that area of Hispaniola is not nearly as mountanous as the rest. Probably won't have much of an impact. This storm continues to be frustrating lol

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[HurricaneEnzo]

Sun just staring to come up on Isaias. Should be able to get a good look on visible soon and maybe determine exactly where LLC is in relation to Hispaniola.

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