ATL: LAURA - Models

[Hammy]

This is the part when I use my brains, I never believed it when it blew it up in this area in its long range forecast, and you can go through my posts. That model doesn’t do well when conditions are not perfect, when SAL is nearby. But when it blows it up consistently when even global models show a fairly good upper level environment with no SAL around that’s when I put stock on it. It may not blow up to a Cat 4 like it shows but it surely will not be a weak hurricane.

Or it may not even become a Hurricane. What about that option?

With such UL conditions, is guaranteed it will become a hurricane, eventually at some point.

What were Erika's (2015) upper level conditions in the GoM like at the time for comparison? It came up in the storm thread and I don't have any satellite info once advisories were discontinued, but I remember the vortex surviving for awhile and going through the keys.

[SunnyThoughts]

As a Houstonian, this storm is pretty much scaring the hell out of me.

I think everyone along the gulf coast feels that way until the models get a better handle on the situation.

[DestinHurricane]

As a Houstonian, this storm is pretty much scaring the hell out of me.

I think everyone along the gulf coast feels that way until the models get a better handle on the situation.

Feeling pretty safe tonight in destin. Ridge will probably push this west.

[jasons2k]

I have to admit, I have been so focused on TD14 that I haven't spent much time on Laura. I never expected it to be a major impact for the West Coast of Florida (or Texas for that matter). I figured it would either plow right into SE Florida or skirt through the straits and head towards Pensacola/Mobile.

I didn't expect Texas to be a real plausible scenario but that is looking increasingly likely.

[toad strangler]

 http://twitter.com/DrKimWood/status/1296966097313423365



 http://twitter.com/DrKimWood/status/1296958021755637763

[Jag95]

As a Houstonian, this storm is pretty much scaring the hell out of me.

I think everyone along the gulf coast feels that way until the models get a better handle on the situation.

It's a guessing game right now. I asked the roofer to wait until after next week to start on my house.

[Blow_Hard]

As a Houstonian, this storm is pretty much scaring the hell out of me.

I think everyone along the gulf coast feels that way until the models get a better handle on the situation.

Feeling pretty safe tonight in destin. Ridge will probably push this west.

Likewise here in Panama City. I mean I know the situation is fluid but it definitely looks like whatever happens is going to be far removed from us...

[sphelps8681]

Local met just did a live stating the storms will trend more west because of high pressure developing off to the east of Florida and being strong enough to push these systems on a westward trend. With TD14/Marco going toward Corpus/Mexico and Laura hitting Texas as a Hurricane according to the latest 18z run.

[catskillfire51]

Local met just did a live stating the storms will trend more west because of high pressure developing off to the east of Florida and being strong enough to push these systems on a westward trend. With TD14/Marco going toward Corpus/Mexico and Laura hitting Texas as a Hurricane according to the latest 18z run.

If you follow todays trends he could be right but tomorrow it could completely change. Just needs to be watched very closely

[Hammy]

NAM follows the CMC and has Laura picking up vorticity from Hispaniola




50kt TS in the Gulf at the end of the run

[Astromanía]

OMG another storm that I need to watch closely, what the hell...

[eastcoastFL]

it's hard to believe we had the "Recurve to the EAST of FL" brigade here less than 48 hours ago

http://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1296977074591326208?s=20

Also it was @3 days ago the Euro went E of Florida...

Well the 18z EURO shifts way S of Cuba mostly to TX/Mexico and the 18z HWRF shifts N to Fl peninsula tip then FL panhandle...

Does any model really win?

The models and the humans are still completely split on this. No man nor machine has a friggin clue what we’ll be dealing with 48 hours from now so far. I guess that’s why us storm junkies find tracking hurricanes so exciting. It wouldn’t be as interesting if we already knew the outcome. But for safety sake it sure would be nice to have a better grasp with the islands and the CONUS in the crosshairs.

[eastcoastFL]

Bit of history -

Only two times since 1851 have there been two tropical systems of at least tropical storm strength in the Gulf of Mexico simultaneously:

1. September 5, 1933 - Category 3 hurricane and a 65 mph tropical storm
2. June 18, 1959 - two tropical storms

Were Bonnie and Charlie ever in the gulf together? I know it was close but can’t remember if Bonnie was still a TS. Did them being in the same area so close together have any impact on the models failing with Charlie so badly?

[Hammy]

Bit of history -

Only two times since 1851 have there been two tropical systems of at least tropical storm strength in the Gulf of Mexico simultaneously:

1. September 5, 1933 - Category 3 hurricane and a 65 mph tropical storm
2. June 18, 1959 - two tropical storms

We’re Bonnie and Charlie ever in the gulf together? I know it was close but can’t remember if Bonnie was still a TS. Did them being in the same area so close together have any impact on the models failing with Charlie so badly?

https://eoimages.gsfc.nasa.gov/images/imagerecords/4000/4736/Bonnie-Charley_OSE2004224.jpg

I believe Charley emerged from Cuba roughly 12 hours after Bonnie's landfall, but that certainly looks like the closest we've come recently.

[Kingarabian]

00z ICON rolling if anyone wants to post updates

[eastcoastFL]

Bit of history -

Only two times since 1851 have there been two tropical systems of at least tropical storm strength in the Gulf of Mexico simultaneously:

1. September 5, 1933 - Category 3 hurricane and a 65 mph tropical storm
2. June 18, 1959 - two tropical storms

We’re Bonnie and Charlie ever in the gulf together? I know it was close but can’t remember if Bonnie was still a TS. Did them being in the same area so close together have any impact on the models failing with Charlie so badly?

https://eoimages.gsfc.nasa.gov/images/imagerecords/4000/4736/Bonnie-Charley_OSE2004224.jpg

I believe Charley emerged from Cuba roughly 12 hours after Bonnie's landfall, but that certainly looks like the closest we've come recently.

That’s the only one I remember since I started tracking storms at least the closest. I forgot about Wilma eating Alpha. I didn’t have electricity when that happened. I wonder if the Bonnie scenario had any effect on modeling. A land falling Bonnie and a Charlie coming off land had to be tough to forecast what would happen to Charlie.

[eastcoastFL]

Icon at 30 hours

[Steve]

Bit of history -

Only two times since 1851 have there been two tropical systems of at least tropical storm strength in the Gulf of Mexico simultaneously:

1. September 5, 1933 - Category 3 hurricane and a 65 mph tropical storm
2. June 18, 1959 - two tropical storms

We’re Bonnie and Charlie ever in the gulf together? I know it was close but can’t remember if Bonnie was still a TS. Did them being in the same area so close together have any impact on the models failing with Charlie so badly?

https://eoimages.gsfc.nasa.gov/images/imagerecords/4000/4736/Bonnie-Charley_OSE2004224.jpg

I believe Charley emerged from Cuba roughly 12 hours after Bonnie's landfall, but that certainly looks like the closest we've come recently.

That's right - only 1959 and 1933 had 2 named storms in the Gulf simultaneously at least in the last 100 years.

[toad strangler]

00z ICON is all tied up in the Big Islands and entering SE Cuba through 39hrs

[Blown Away]

18z HWRF run is almost completely outside of the NHC cone.