ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Vdogg]

Since Isaias has already started making that NW turn, is it safe to say that the central Gulf Coast is out of any eventual path?

No, it could easily go west and cross the Florida peninsula.

[northjaxpro]

I can not tell you all how many times I have seen cyclones get around Hispaniola. We hear so much about how Hispaniola destroys storms. However, I think this mainly applies to storms that are tightly compacted with solid inner cores. These are the cyclones that if they encounter the rugged, high terrain of the island, they are susceptible to being ripped apart.

Large, disorganized systems like Isaias tend to tighten up and actually seemingly benefit from the frictional effects from the island. It is an interesting study through the years and wnever ceases to amaze me.

[NDG]

I see the eastward shifts continue next couple of advisories I bet FL is completely out of the cone from this one. Looks a lot better organized this morning.

Not when the GFS and Euro have actually shifted west, lol.

Hey NDG!

You know how it is SFL always in the cone only to get out. I keep looking at Satellite imagery this morning and is it me or this is going to get out of the islands with much trouble?

SE FL is now well within the 3 days forecast, I doubt you will be completely out of the cone at this point.

[NDG]

If that is not the LLC in Mona Passage it has to be very close to it to the SW. Recon will tell us.

[SFLcane]

If that is not the LLC in Mona Passage it has to be very close to it to the SW. Recon will tell us.

https://i.imgur.com/jXApKrB.gif

It’s clearly pulling a Dorian which will keep the storm intact and I can I see the nhc giving more weight to those eastward more intense trends. The 06z tcvn is out over the Bahamas that track will be shifted offshore.

[boca]

I see the eastward shifts continue next couple of advisories I bet FL is completely out of the cone from this one. Looks a lot better organized this morning.

I totally agree the east shifts will continue due to our saving trough which always gets us out of trouble.

[DestinHurricane]

I see the eastward shifts continue next couple of advisories I bet FL is completely out of the cone from this one. Looks a lot better organized this morning.

I totally agree the east shifts will continue due to our saving trough which always gets us out of trouble.

Why will it shift east if the global models have strong riding that keeps it close to the coast?

[Highteeld]

[SFLcane]

I see the eastward shifts continue next couple of advisories I bet FL is completely out of the cone from this one. Looks a lot better organized this morning.

I totally agree the east shifts will continue due to our saving trough which always gets us out of trouble.

Why will it shift east if the global models have strong riding that keeps it close to the coast?

The 06z TCVN is out over the Bahamas so that usually means the 11am will see another eastward shift. By the way things are shaping up the worst of the weather will this system will be over the Bahamas. We can deal with a nice breezy day.

[Kat5]

I totally agree the east shifts will continue due to our saving trough which always gets us out of trouble.

Why will it shift east if the global models have strong riding that keeps it close to the coast?

The 06z TCVN is out over the Bahamas so that usually means the 11am will see another eastward shift. By the way things are shaping up the worst of the weather will system over the Bahamas. We can deal with a nice breezy day.

We’re dodging bullets these past few years. Definitely going to be breezy this weekend, maybe a shower then and there. I’m enjoying this shield.

[SFLcane]

I mean all the guidance keeping it stronger has kept it away from SFL for a while anyway. We shall see

[otowntiger]

I see the eastward shifts continue next couple of advisories I bet FL is completely out of the cone from this one. Looks a lot better organized this morning.

I totally agree the east shifts will continue due to our saving trough which always gets us out of trouble.

Yep- this is what I believe will happen as well. The storm could very well strengthen more than currently forecast and it could stay well offshore, in my opinion. May even be just far enough to provide subsidence for the peninsula. Therefore we actually could have, dare I say it, decent weather in Florida over the weekend?

[GCANE]

Looks like strong LL winds coming into the NE DR shore.
Heavy convection likely to fire up and a sling-shot of the LL/ML vort to the north / northwest becoming more likely.

[NDG]

I totally agree the east shifts will continue due to our saving trough which always gets us out of trouble.

Why will it shift east if the global models have strong riding that keeps it close to the coast?

The 06z TCVN is out over the Bahamas so that usually means the 11am will see another eastward shift. By the way things are shaping up the worst of the weather will this system will be over the Bahamas. We can deal with a nice breezy day.

06z TVCN is that far to the right because of earlier GFS runs being far to the right, with the latest 06z GFS shifting westward the TVCN should also shift westward on the next 12z run with the latest Euro that far to the west.

[Steve H.]

I wouldn't bank on good weather for the East coast of Florida this weekend. On the contrary, I am pretty sure it will be wet and windy per the nws Melbourne forecast. And it may be quite a bit worse.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

[GCANE]

Dropping down now. Tons of TS-force SFMR readings.

[NDG]

[NDG]

Plenty of TS force winds already in the eastern quadrant.

10500 1645N 06641W 8226 01780 0098 +155 +137 167043 044 040 001 00
110530 1644N 06643W 8377 01621 0094 +168 +134 168043 043 038 001 00
110600 1643N 06645W 8408 01588 0093 +171 +136 169045 046 036 000 00
110630 1642N 06646W 8420 01573 0094 +167 +140 173045 046 036 000 00

[Blown Away]

I see the eastward shifts continue next couple of advisories I bet FL is completely out of the cone from this one. Looks a lot better organized this morning.

I totally agree the east shifts will continue due to our saving trough which always gets us out of trouble.

The 00z Euro trended W and the 06z GFS trended W very close to FL coast. I suspect the TVCN will shift slightly W in the 12z this morning and back to a FL landfall.

[bob rulz]

First visibles are in, and what a difference 12 horus can make. This no longer looks like a disorganized mess, it actually looks like a storm!

Given how 2020 has gone so far, and the bathtub waters ahead of it, I find it hard to believe that this won't strengthen more than forecast. The only hope is that the forecasted shear pans out.