ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[otowntiger]

I see the eastward shifts continue next couple of advisories I bet FL is completely out of the cone from this one. Looks a lot better organized this morning.

I totally agree the east shifts will continue due to our saving trough which always gets us out of trouble.

The 00z Euro trended W and the 06z trended W very close to FL coast. I suspect the TVCN will shift slightly W in the 12z this morning and back to a FL landfall.

that may very well happen, with the models today, but it is still early enough for them to shift back east and in real time for the storm to actually pull well offshore, which is the much more common and typical track. We’ll see.

[NDG]

Recon now heading north as clearly the LLC is not that far south.

12230 1638N 06736W 8434 01544 0068 +176 +162 176040 040 029 000 00
112300 1639N 06738W 8434 01544 0067 +175 +162 177040 040 029 001 00
112330 1641N 06739W 8436 01540 0066 +176 +163 180037 040 028 000 00
112400 1642N 06740W 8418 01557 0074 +177 //// 175036 039 031 007 01
112430 1643N 06742W 8440 01537 //// +166 //// 179039 040 032 006 01
112500 1645N 06743W 8433 01544 0065 +175 +172 181038 040 028 000 00
112530 1646N 06744W 8434 01540 0063 +175 +171 180038 038 027 000 00
112600 1647N 06746W 8436 01540 0065 +172 +166 181038 038 028 000 00
112630 1649N 06747W 8434 01541 0067 +171 +166 181037 038 029 003 00
$$
;

[DestinHurricane]

This could possibly make a run for cat 1 status near the Bahamas, hope they are prepared. I hate to see it happen to areas already ravaged by Dorian.

[CM2]

First visibles are in, and what a difference 12 horus can make. This no longer looks like a disorganized mess, it actually looks like a storm!

Given how 2020 has gone so far, and the bathtub waters ahead of it, I find it hard to believe that this won't strengthen more than forecast. The only hope is that the forecasted shear pans out.

Yeah, the NHC did state that their forecast are on the Conservative side.

[SFLcane]

I see the eastward shifts continue next couple of advisories I bet FL is completely out of the cone from this one. Looks a lot better organized this morning.

I totally agree the east shifts will continue due to our saving trough which always gets us out of trouble.

The 00z Euro trended W and the 06z GFS trended W very close to FL coast. I suspect the TVCN will shift slightly W in the 12z this morning and back to a FL landfall.

Hi Blown away, Quite possibly I guess. You know was just looking at some maps and the NWS has gusts to near 80 mph in Fort Lauderdale. I guess a blend cause those eastern solutions on the models are looking bright especially if this thing pulls a Dorian which is looking probable down there this morning.

[cjrciadt]

https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/loop.asp?product=4kmirimg&storm_identifier=al092020&starting_image=2020al09_4kmirimg_202007300840.gif

[GCANE]

They went thru that tower.
24 mm/hr rain rate.

[GCANE]

They went thru that tower.
24 mm/hr rain rate.

Playing it safe.
Cruising at 5000 ft

[AutoPenalti]

LLC is about to squeeze through the Mona Passage... still lacks a CDO that could really bomb this thing out.

[GCANE]

Hmm
At 5K', recon showing south winds and the NE wind recorded at that station on the tip of DR?
Recon directly south of that station.
Wonder if they take a dip down for a closer look.

[Jr0d]

Looking at the San Juan radar, it appears tge center is going to skirt the north coast of the Dominican Republic so it will likely miss the mountain shredder but still have some interference with its circulation.

We will see what the models trend towards today. I feel like I am in the clear in Key West though.

[GCANE]

Looks like they just got it.

[BobHarlem]

I don't see how this misses Hispaniola based on recon and vis Satellite, all the hot towers are on the southern part, Unless that starts popping further north. SJU Radar may be a red herring here, maybe a decoupled MLC. This interaction is going to be interesting to watch.

[NDG]

This might be a dying old LLC, they need to look a little further north.

[Airboy]

Looks like the old LLC is breaking down from recon?

[NDG]

Looks like they just got it.

https://i.imgur.com/DXikqzy.png

The interesting part is that Punta Cana's SLP is just about the same as down there, the LLC might be trying to reform further north closer to the MLC.

[AJC3]

Looks like they just got it.

https://i.imgur.com/DXikqzy.png

You can pretty much see the handwriting on the wall now, with the LLC being SW of the MLC. As was mentioned in the 5 AM TCD, both should continue moving NW, with the original LLC running into and dissipating over Hispaniola while a new one forms to the NE beneath the well-defined MLC and it's formative CDO. For all intents, this is the equivalent of 'Shooting the gap' through the Mona Passage.

[N2FSU]

I went to the New Orleans NWS Discussion to see what they say about this approaching trough. Doesn't sound like they buy that it will progress very far:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
309 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2020

LONG TERM (Saturday through Wednesday)...
Upper troughing from the southern Great Lakes to east Texas will push a weak front into, but not through the area Saturday. After all, it is (or at least will be) August.


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[Highteeld]

Pretty impressive to see -90* convection in the Atlantic

[NDG]

To me is not a very well defined LLC, opening the window to reform further north later today.