ATL: ISAIAS - Models

[jlauderdal]

Stronger doesn't necessarily mean poleward. Ridging would trump that, like a top guided by a string.

good point...hispanola doesnt always weaken storms, strong systems dont always go poleward, they wont bust through ridges and if this ridge the euro is seeing is strong enough this becomes a florida landfalling system easily..the ten gas cans are loaded in the car and ready

Yep going to top the cars soon. Hopefully not a trend yikes

eric blake from nhc lives close to your location..monitor his twitter, he worked the graveyard and did the write up so look for tweets from him to see what he is doing today

[NDG]

Closer look at the 06z Euro run, let the Hurricane warnings begin soon.

[AutoPenalti]

Closer look at the 06z Euro run, let the Hurricane warnings begin soon.

https://i.imgur.com/PMaklFf.gif

I don’t think so if you have it weakening.

[SFLcane]

good point...hispanola doesnt always weaken storms, strong systems dont always go poleward, they wont bust through ridges and if this ridge the euro is seeing is strong enough this becomes a florida landfalling system easily..the ten gas cans are loaded in the car and ready

Yep going to top the cars soon. Hopefully not a trend yikes

eric blake from nhc lives close to your location..monitor his twitter, he worked the graveyard and did the write up so look for tweets from him to see what he is doing today

I know Eric lives real close to me.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Closer look at the 06z Euro run, let the Hurricane warnings begin soon.

https://i.imgur.com/PMaklFf.gif

That's a total 180 there. Wow

[tarheelprogrammer]

Closer look at the 06z Euro run, let the Hurricane warnings begin soon.

https://i.imgur.com/PMaklFf.gif

Double post please delete mods.

[ronjon]

Wow just wow....yesterday looked increasingly like an OTS or offshore solution and this morning...yikes! Now Fl likely to see at least TS or CAT 1 conditions...unless of course the models do another about face at 12z.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Closer look at the 06z Euro run, let the Hurricane warnings begin soon.

https://i.imgur.com/PMaklFf.gif

If that verifies then props are needed for the CMC. It sniffed this out the whole time. It seems like it has done a real good job so far this season. Anyone have data to back this up?

[chris_fit]

Closer look at the 06z Euro run, let the Hurricane warnings begin soon.

https://i.imgur.com/PMaklFf.gif

I like how it drops a few MB as it nears Lake O

[gatorcane]

Euro has SE Florida on the dirty side. Though not a hurricane would be very windy and squally. Even strong tropical waves are no picnic.

[TheStormExpert]

Closer look at the 06z Euro run, let the Hurricane warnings begin soon.

https://i.imgur.com/PMaklFf.gif

Doesn’t look like a hurricane to me on there. I mean it’s going to hit tomorrow so putting up hurricane watches/warnings on such short notice would cause a lot of panic around here. Hopefully Isaias continues to struggle.

[northjaxpro]

Closer look at the 06z Euro run, let the Hurricane warnings begin soon.

https://i.imgur.com/PMaklFf.gif

This 06Z run of the EURO is quite telling of the mid level steering. EURO just about takes Isaias to the Southeast GOM.

[HurricaneFrances04]

Euro ensembles with a decent SW shift too. Does the NHC incorporate the 6z/18z Euro into their forecasts? Not sure I've seen them mention those runs before.

[Powellrm]

CMC continues to do a sneaky good job on picking up on trends early on. What does the CMC pick up that the other models don’t quite factor in as much. Super interesting!

[marciacubed]

I think if they put up hurricane warnings they will have to open shelters. With the Covid issue they have a fine line to decide which is safer. If this is just going to be like severe afternoon storms people would not have to evacuate their homes.

[cp79]

Closer look at the 06z Euro run, let the Hurricane warnings begin soon.

https://i.imgur.com/PMaklFf.gif

This 06Z run of the EURO is quite telling of the mid level steering. EURO just about takes Isaias to the Southeast GOM.

If it were to get to the Gulf, it will be sheared to pieces. It would probably be a naked swirl. Gulf is hostile right now.

[SFLcane]

Euro ensembles with a decent SW shift too. Does the NHC incorporate the 6z/18z Euro into their forecasts? Not sure I've seen them mention those runs before.

Holy..

[northjaxpro]

CMC continues to do a sneaky good job on picking up on trends early on. What does the CMC pick up that the other models don’t quite factor in as much. Super interesting!

The CMC has done rather decent with modeling Isaias, along with the EURO in analyzing the ridging!

[MJGarrison]

CMC continues to do a sneaky good job on picking up on trends early on. What does the CMC pick up that the other models don’t quite factor in as much. Super interesting!

Is this necessarily the case? There are a few reasons that the storm may end up further west—stronger ridge, weaker storm, etc. If the CMC has the right result for the wrong reason, its not really picking up on an early trend.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[DestinHurricane]

Remember folks, the 6Z/18Z Euro are not as reliable as 0Z/12Z. I wouldn't put too much weight in this 6Z run until the 12Z confirms.