ATL: SALLY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[emeraldislenc]

Remember yesterday when a lot of people on here were almost writing off Sally. If I remember correctly the NHC were predicting this yesterday that it would strengthen on today.

[EquusStorm]

Well suffice to say that escalated fast.

[GCANE]

Big-ass feeder band kicking in now.
Going to look like a 850-lb shrimp.

https://i.imgur.com/08JMqqO.png

Mmmm shrimp. Anyway, like I was sayin', shrimp is the fruit of the sea. You can barbecue it, boil it, broil it, bake it, saute it.

The uncertainty with this one is unnerving; for those in emergency management who are making decisions this has got to be frustrating as all get out.

Tropical cyclones are like a box of chocolate.
Sorry, couldn't help myself.

[HurricaneEnzo]

Sally is a convective mauler. Seriously impressive cold cloud tops even in the face of daytime warming.

[Florabamaman]

I saw alot of folks on here yesterday writing her off...never, ever underestimate the Gulf!

[PavelGaborik10]

The way it's going right now... Cat 3 may not be out of the question

It was always on the table for me. I think she peaks around 110 but we'll see.

[tolakram]

427
URNT12 KNHC 141640
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL192020
A. 14/16:03:20Z
B. 28.70 deg N 087.02 deg W
C. 700 mb 3001 m
D. 987 mb
E. 285 deg 8 kt
F. OPEN SW
G. C24
H. 41 kt
I. 205 deg 16 nm 15:58:30Z
J. 316 deg 46 kt
K. 221 deg 5 nm 16:02:00Z
L. 72 kt
M. 047 deg 12 nm 16:07:30Z
N. 136 deg 79 kt
O. 048 deg 25 nm 16:10:30Z
P. 18 C / 3028 m
Q. 19 C / 3039 m
R. 7 C / NA
S. 12345 / 7
T. 0.02 / 2 nm
U. AF308 0619A SALLY OB 18
MAX FL WIND 79 KT 048 / 25 NM 16:10:30Z
;

D. 987 mb
F. OPEN SW
MAX FL WIND 79 KT 048 / 25 NM 16:10:30Z
U. AF308 0619A SALLY OB 18

[drezee]

 https://twitter.com/andretrotter/status/1305548397873704960

[xironman]

Stacked center now resuming WNW motion

[Stormgodess]

I saw alot of folks on here yesterday writing her off...never, ever underestimate the Gulf!

LOL being from SE Louisiana, I cant tell you how many times I have seen forecast this time of year for Cat 1 at landfall, with a track across the Gulf, with little shear, and me screaming at the TV "HOW THE HECK IS THIS THING NOT GOING TO INTENSIFY??"

[northjaxpro]

I saw alot of folks on here yesterday writing her off...never, ever underestimate the Gulf!

You all know what my mantra is always and I will keep saying it:

NEVER SAY NEVER with everything weather related and in life in general!!!

[Chris_in_Tampa]

[PavelGaborik10]

All bets are off once she closes at eyewall off. Hopefully she manages to come on shore quicker than expected because another 24+ hours for an RI'ing storm is just plain bad news.

[p1nheadlarry]

I saw alot of folks on here yesterday writing her off...never, ever underestimate the Gulf!

It's an unwritten rule of tropics gawking!

Also, your username. Going to pretend you're not a 'FLO-GROWN' Bama fan...

[shiny-pebble]

Laura didn't even have cloud tops this cold at peak and that was at night

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

[Gums]

Salute!

Remember Camille.

Seems to me that it got lots stronger last 12 to 18 hours and shifted lots to the west.
Granted, our models an imagery and .... an order of magnitude more accurate now, but
still not 100%.

Over in Baja Alabama, we saw Opal go from near Five to weak Three just hours before landfall.

I am still looking at Dauphin Island and Gump territory. Even Orange Beach and Gulf Shores and Perdido are candidates if Miss Sally speeds up and hooks.


Gums sends....

[p1nheadlarry]

Up to 90 mph in between two special updates, totally missed that

[psyclone]

Hanna, Laura and now Sally have gone bananas in the Gulf. 2 of the three would be noteworthy in any season but now we have all 3 and the risk of additional TC activity, especially in the eastern half of the Gulf over the next few weeks is high. In fact i would suggest peak season for the eastern gulf is latter Sept through October. We could easily see another hurricane (s) enter the gulf from the south and east. This is most impressive. stay safe up there

[aspen]

All bets are off once she closes at eyewall off. Hopefully she manages to come on shore quicker than expected because another 24+ hours for an RI'ing storm is just plain bad news.

This will almost certainly be a major once they eyewall closes off. The only thing that’ll stop her is a delayed closing of the eyewall.

[Do_For_Love]

All bets are off once she closes at eyewall off. Hopefully she manages to come on shore quicker than expected because another 24+ hours for an RI'ing storm is just plain bad news.

Just to riff on this, even with the open eyewall, she seems to strengthening very fast. I think we have been talking about like 2 to 3 mbar/hr, no? Could she strengthen even faster with a closed eye? Perhaps that rate was just a one off or something, though.

Not trying to fear monger! Just looking at the data and speculating

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.