ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

What happened to Wxman57 and Aric?

[toad strangler]

Wow, it really is going through the Mona Passage. What a drastic change from yesterday. Days and days of watching this chug along West, and it’s finally started gaining some serious latitude.

That’s a good sign for Florida, not so much for interests further north. Time to see where the center reforms, the MLC is clearly leading the charge right now. This is really the last wildcard.

You should probably check model runs.

I think some of the FL guys are using "reverse psychology" on Isaias

Anyway, the storm looks completely different than last night before I hit the sack. Big development in structure.

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1288807720141967363

[NDG]

What happened to Wxman57 and Aric?

They are trying to find the LLC south of Haiti j/k

[EquusStorm]

So did this really just pull off a Dorian and leap east to largely skip Greater Antilles land interaction?? This thing has to be a nightmare to forecast

[gatorcane]

Palm Beach post headline:

“Isaias Storm: Tropical Storm now but could be hurricane strength as it nears Florida.”

https://www.palmbeachpost.com/

[NDG]

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1288807720141967363

What I have been saying all along, something to definitely keep an eye on if convection persists as it tracks through the Bahamas.

[eastcoastFL]

Wow, it really is going through the Mona Passage. What a drastic change from yesterday. Days and days of watching this chug along West, and it’s finally started gaining some serious latitude.

That’s a good sign for Florida, not so much for interests further north. Time to see where the center reforms, the MLC is clearly leading the charge right now. This is really the last wildcard.

You should probably check model runs.

I think some of the FL guys are using "reverse psychology" on Isaias

Anyway, the storm looks completely different than last night before I hit the sack. Big development in structure.

I’m still hoping the eastern side of this stays clear of us here in the treasure coast. My wife put a sign up in my office saying “buy a generator” 3 days ago and I’ve been slacking... I’ll never here the end of it if a generator is actually necessary.

[DestinHurricane]

Watches should go up for S Florida in the next advisory. If this hold together later today hurricane watches may be needed considering the NHC has 70 mph.

[SconnieCane]

So did this really just pull off a Dorian and leap east to largely skip Greater Antilles land interaction?? This thing has to be a nightmare to forecast

Not yet, but it's working on it.

It remains to be seen if a new LLC will actually form north of the DR, but conditions appear to favor it as alluded to in several other posts.

[TheStormExpert]

Palm Beach post headline:

“Isaias Storm: Tropical Storm now but could be hurricane strength as it nears Florida.”

https://www.palmbeachpost.com/

Where do they come up with this hype!?

Not saying it couldn’t obtain weak hurricane status but come on, too soon. Especially if the current forecast doesn’t call for it.

[eastcoastFL]

Looking healthy this morning

[Lance]

You should probably check model runs.

I think some of the FL guys are using "reverse psychology" on Isaias

Anyway, the storm looks completely different than last night before I hit the sack. Big development in structure.

I’m still hoping the eastern side of this stays clear of us here in the treasure coast. My wife put a sign up in my office saying “buy a generator” 3 days ago and I’ve been slacking... I’ll never here the end of it if a generator is actually necessary.

I laughed at this, only because my wife would do the same. We have one in the garage, but haven't fired it up this year (yet). Best of luck... (And go get one....)

[xironman]

So did this really just pull off a Dorian and leap east to largely skip Greater Antilles land interaction?? This thing has to be a nightmare to forecast

Not yet, but it's working on it.

It remains to be seen if a new LLC will actually form north of the DR, but conditions appear to favor it as alluded to in several other posts.

The gfs did a good job showing the center relocation.

[eastcoastFL]

Palm Beach post headline:

“Isaias Storm: Tropical Storm now but could be hurricane strength as it nears Florida.”

https://www.palmbeachpost.com/

Where do they come up with this hype!?

Not saying it couldn’t obtain weak hurricane status but come on, too soon. Especially if the current forecast doesn’t call for it.

Well for one hype is what newspapers do. But two it’s good to let people know it’s possible so they don’t disregard as “only a TS” as many Floridians do.

[eastcoastFL]

I think some of the FL guys are using "reverse psychology" on Isaias

Anyway, the storm looks completely different than last night before I hit the sack. Big development in structure.

I’m still hoping the eastern side of this stays clear of us here in the treasure coast. My wife put a sign up in my office saying “buy a generator” 3 days ago and I’ve been slacking... I’ll never here the end of it if a generator is actually necessary.

I laughed at this, only because my wife would do the same. We have one in the garage, but haven't fired it up this year (yet). Best of luck... (And go get one....)

I think I’ll take lunch around 11 and go grab one instead of the pain that’ll come if I don’t

[DestinHurricane]

Palm Beach post headline:

“Isaias Storm: Tropical Storm now but could be hurricane strength as it nears Florida.”

https://www.palmbeachpost.com/

Where do they come up with this hype!?

Not saying it couldn’t obtain weak hurricane status but come on, too soon. Especially if the current forecast doesn’t call for it.

The NHC is calling for a 70 mph storm so its safe to say that there is a chance it's 75 mph. What they said was not unreasonable at all. The NHC even called 70 mph "conservative".

[TheStormExpert]

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1288807720141967363

What I have been saying all along, something to definitely keep an eye on if convection persists as it tracks through the Bahamas.

The fact that it’s not riding the spine of Hispaniola and instead likely to go through the Mona Passage raises an eyebrow.

[aspen]

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/GIFS/GOES16-CAR-GEOCOLOR-1000x1000.gif?hash=27495

Looking healthy this morning

He’s coming along very nicely. That massive new convective burst is probably going to help relocate the center either north of DR or over the flatter parts of Hispaniola.

[BobHarlem]

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1288807720141967363

What I have been saying all along, something to definitely keep an eye on if convection persists as it tracks through the Bahamas.

The fact that it’s not riding the spine of Hispaniola and instead likely to go through the Mona Passage raises an eyebrow.

The center is south of the DR, it's not going through the mona passage directly. MLC may be indirectly, but I still think that collides with the DR (it already partially has).