ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ColdMiser123]

Recon didn't find any significant west winds where the first dropsonde was launched, just a strong wind shift. That would strongly suggest that the center might be on the north side of the wave envelope, just northeast of Hispaniola at this point.

[TheStormExpert]

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/GIFS/GOES16-CAR-GEOCOLOR-1000x1000.gif?hash=27495

Looking healthy this morning

Finally looking like a decent storm, hopefully it doesn’t catch anyone off guard!

[msbee]

Good morning
Has anyone heard from cycloneye?

[Aric Dunn]

Today will be the day of real headaches... land interaction.. MLC has already begun to move over land. so unlikely that will be able to take over.. so cut out the GFS from the list.

Recon still has the center south of the Island. so keep the Euro for now.

[GCANE]

Recon did a 180 and back tracking.
Maybe headed to DR.

[eastcoastFL]

Any idea why the Canadian is still taking this into the gulf? It’s waaay west of almost every other model?

[NDG]

Circulation is still elongated, it shouldn't be problem for the LLC reform on the northern coast of Hispaniola later today as mentioned before.

[GCANE]

Drops showing air saturated in the boundary layer south of DR.

[Aric Dunn]

Circulation is still elongated, it shouldn't be problem for the LLC reform on the northern coast of Hispaniola later today as mentioned before.

https://i.imgur.com/aLq7Atz.png

Dont count on it..

most of the energy is heading over land and high terrain.

[ronjon]

Any idea why the Canadian is still taking this into the gulf? It’s waaay west of almost every other model?

Its not way in the Gulf - its just offshore of SW FL and then turns it northward near Tampa. Only slightly west of Euro and UKMET.

[Aric Dunn]

There are going to be sooo many eddy south of Hispaniola for the next 12+ hours with the north wind across the island.

there will be an ever present lower pressure field south of the island because of this as well.

[ronjon]

Any idea why the Canadian is still taking this into the gulf? It’s waaay west of almost every other model?

Its not way in the Gulf - its just offshore of SW FL and then turns it northward near Tampa. Only slightly west of Euro and UKMET.

[TheBurn]

Good morning
Has anyone heard from cycloneye?

morning! no... but fwiw, here in PR we've had tons of rain, areas of flooding, 50-60mph gusts, a few mudslides, and about 300k peeps without power

[eastcoastFL]

Any idea why the Canadian is still taking this into the gulf? It’s waaay west of almost every other model?

Its not way in the Gulf - its just offshore of SW FL and then turns it northward near Tampa. Only slightly west of Euro and UKMET.

Isn’t the euro barely making east coast landfall? I mean they’re on opposite sides of fl

[Visioen]

Lol shredder of TC's is all nice and fun until the storm gets bigger than the shredder. No way to catch it entirely.

[AutoPenalti]

There are going to be sooo many eddy south of Hispaniola for the next 12+ hours with the north wind across the island.

there will be an ever present lower pressure field south of the island because of this as well.

Well, we have 24 hrs to start clearing out eddies, so let’s get started.

[Vdogg]

Palm Beach post headline:

“Isaias Storm: Tropical Storm now but could be hurricane strength as it nears Florida.”

https://www.palmbeachpost.com/

Where do they come up with this hype!?

Not saying it couldn’t obtain weak hurricane status but come on, too soon. Especially if the current forecast doesn’t call for it.

That’s not hype at all. At it’s current intensity, direction, and favorable conditions ahead, this will almost certainly be a hurricane within 24 hours.

[Do_For_Love]

Good morning
Has anyone heard from cycloneye?

He posted the 93L thread about an hour ago

[Vdogg]

What I have been saying all along, something to definitely keep an eye on if convection persists as it tracks through the Bahamas.

The fact that it’s not riding the spine of Hispaniola and instead likely to go through the Mona Passage raises an eyebrow.

The center is south of the DR, it's not going through the mona passage directly. MLC may be indirectly, but I still think that collides with the DR (it already partially has).

What is south of DR is the old and rapidly degrading LLC. A new LLC will form north of DR. Perhaps it didn’t go “through” Mona Passage, but it most certainly hopped it.

[DestinHurricane]

this will almost certainly be a hurricane within 24 hours.

Now this is hype, Palm Beach Post isn't.
It is not certain to be a hurricane but the possibility is there, which is why PBP said that. We can't say definitively if it will or won't become a hurricane but the forecast is leaning towards it won't.