ATL: SALLY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Stormgodess]

And the latest update I saw has Sally as a Cat2 105mph winds 7am Tues...And still having 105mph winds 7PM Tues? So no expected intensification sitting right off the Gulf Coast for 12 hrs??

Not sure how to do an image

Upwelling

Is that a probable/likely thing? Sorry to ask so many questions, but the strength of this thing as it sits off the coast during that time is the biggest factor where I'm located, Im just on the edge of the cone but in a structure that can only handle so much

[bayoubebe]

Is there any possibility of this storm moving back to the West? (Is NOLA out of it now?)

[cheezyWXguy]

And the latest update I saw has Sally as a Cat2 105mph winds 7am Tues...And still having 105mph winds 7PM Tues? So no expected intensification sitting right off the Gulf Coast for 12 hrs??

Not sure how to do an image

Upwelling

Is that a probable/likely thing? Sorry to ask so many questions, but the strength of this thing as it sits off the coast during that time is the biggest factor where I'm located, Im just on the edge of the cone but in a structure that can only handle so much

It is possible since the warm water temps don’t extend too far below the surface, but it’s unclear how much upwelling could occur or how much it will affect the storm. And don’t be sorry, I don’t mean to speak for everyone but I think we can all agree that questions like this are welcome here

[xironman]

Probably not believable.

SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 89 kts (102.4 mph)

[GCANE]

This stuff may kick it up a notch or two overnight

[3090]

Correct me if I am wrong. But was there a number of early on models runs essentially showing Sally run across the northern GOM central gulf coast like she is doing and landfalling at the La/Miss state line? I seem to remember such from Saturday.

[bella_may]

Is there any possibility of this storm moving back to the West? (Is NOLA out of it now?)

I don’t think it’ll go as far west as NOLA but I wouldn’t rule out Hancock County just yet

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Probably not believable.

SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 89 kts (102.4 mph)

We'll see what the NHC does. There was another 89 knot reading below it, and neither appeared to be rain contaminated.

[Aric Dunn]

90kt SFMR from AF no flags with others around that.. looks like we have 100 mph cat 2 now.

[tropicwatch]

Probably not believable.

SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 89 kts (102.4 mph)

Reporting several above 90mph at the surface.

[cfisher]

Probably not believable.

SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 89 kts (102.4 mph)

Eh, if you just showed me a picture of the IR w/o saying anything else, I'd think it's at least a Cat 2.

[La Breeze]

This stuff may kick it up a notch or two overnight

https://i.imgur.com/evPlp9d.png

Isn't this the blob that was moving southwest toward Mexico?

[aspen]

A blend of 80 kt FL and 90 kt SFMR would support an 85 kt Cat 2. However, the pressure is still in the mid 980s.

[us89]

90kt SFMR from AF no flags with others around that.. looks like we have 100 mph cat 2 now.

FL winds didn't get much above 80 kt though. And assuming the typical 90% reduction, combining that with the SFMR data probably results in the current 80 kt intensity.

[Blow_Hard]

[quote="3090"]Correct me if I am wrong. But was there a number of early on models runs essentially showing Sally run across the northern GOM central gulf coast like she is doing and landfalling at the La/Miss state line? I seem to remember such from Saturday.[/qauote]

Several of the early runs showed her approaching the Coast near Mobile Bay and basically hugging the coast along the way to SE LA...

[ClarCari]

90kt SFMR from AF no flags with others around that.. looks like we have 100 mph cat 2 now.

If this turns out to be true, then this unexpected rate of RI would bring upper Cat.3 and even Cat.4 on the table should this continue thru tomorrow. I wish I could say i’m jumping the gun, but it’s happening in front of our very eyes right now.

[aspen]

https://mobile.twitter.com/TropicalTidb ... gr%5Etweet

[bella_may]

Almost looks to be moving due west now

[Aric Dunn]

90kt SFMR from AF no flags with others around that.. looks like we have 100 mph cat 2 now.

If this turns out to be true, then this unexpected rate of RI would bring upper Cat.3 and even Cat.4 on the table should this continue thru tomorrow. I wish I could say i’m jumping the gun, but it’s happening in front of our very eyes right now.

well the 12z Ukmet brings pressure down to 965 at landfall.

20mb drop from where it is now.. assuming no crazy structural changes would likely bring it to near cat 4.

[Craters]

This stuff may kick it up a notch or two overnight

https://i.imgur.com/evPlp9d.png

Isn't this the blob that was moving southwest toward Mexico?

No, that blob is now off the coast of Mexico. I think What GCANE has indicated there is a batch of high CAPE air that's normally in the Gulf, roughly to the SE of Galveston.