ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Iceresistance]

Wait, the longer it takes to reach land, the less time it will spend over land, right?

No. It will spend over 2 days crossing land, including some very rugged mountains in Honduras. Small storm + mountains = core death.

Yes, but it depends on how fast the core weakens, Bill in 2015 weakened ever so slowly despite going over hilly Eastern Oklahoma.

[aspen]

Trying to calm myself down with building in Kerbal Space Program...

I’m going to be a little conservative and go with 900 mbar/150 kt. The only reason I’m being conservative is because I don’t know if it’s even physically possible for Eta to have become >155 kt and <890 mbar.

[ElectricStorm]

WV still getting better. It's intensifying.

https://i.imgur.com/cu4ToSJ.gif

https://i.imgur.com/kXL1hHJ.gif

https://i.imgur.com/wEL6sQt.gif

Basically as absolutely perfect you can get in the Atlantic... And maybe even the world

[Kingarabian]

It's wobbling so much that at this point the averaged west movements are no longer noticeable. Weird.

[BYG Jacob]

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/FLOATER/data/AL292020/08/GOES16-AL292020-08-1000x1000.gif?hash=43509

It's STILL getting better!?

It looks to be getting larger (area around the eye) as it approaches land or are my eyes fooling me.

Nope, its CDO is getting larger and more circular, like Haiyan's did.

EDIT: and Patricia's

[RL3AO]

On satellite, it's now joined the Wilma/Gilbert club for Atlantic systems. Also on the same page as Patricia/Haiyan. It's incredible to think that it not being under 900mb would actually be surprising.

[TallyTracker]

Wait, the longer it takes to reach land, the less time it will spend over land, right?

No. It will spend over 2 days crossing land, including some very rugged mountains in Honduras. Small storm + mountains = core death.

Yes, but it depends on how fast the core weakens, Bill in 2015 weakened ever so slowly despite going over hilly Eastern Oklahoma.

Honduras is much higher and more rugged than Oklahoma. See Mitch 1998 for what happens to a Cat 5 over land in Honduras. Rapidly weakened to a depression.

[Highteeld]

I'm going with 890/165

[supercane4867]

It's wobbling so much that at this point the averaged west movements are no longer noticeable. Weird.

Typical of ultra-intense pinholes. Wilma's eye was wobbling like crazy during her peak.

[chaser1]

My guess: 915mb, SFMR 150 knots.

Weird reality where that's conservative, but that's what I'm going with.

That seems like a pretty solid guess. I went with 914 mb for lowest pressure, a few hours ago. Tbh though..... I wouldn't even blink an eye if some of these sub-900mb guesses were to materialize.

[mrbagyo]

i'll go with 165/ 885

[skyline385]

Pressure finally dropping, next set of HDOBS might be it

[cainjamin]

I'm going with 878, 175KT.

[Iceresistance]

FL winds: 67 knots

Extrapoliated pressure: 994.9 MB


8 PM update

[Owasso]

Pressure down to 994mb, max winds so far at 67kts with 50kts SFMR, still a ways to go to the center.

[BYG Jacob]

 https://twitter.com/wxmann/status/1323447094049320961



Great googly moogly

[Keldeo1997]

Almost to History...

[Kingarabian]

It's wobbling so much that at this point the averaged west movements are no longer noticeable. Weird.

Typical of ultra-intense pinholes. Wilma's eye was wobbling like crazy during her peak.

It's like the worst case scenarios keep stacking over each other. Had it just zipped west Nicaragua and Hondurans theoretically could've been dealing with 50-70mph less wind speeds....

[Highteeld]

[weeniepatrol]