ATL: LAURA - Models

[Keldeo1997]

Galveston 1900 anyone?

[FLpanhandle91]

00z HWRF ends up almost the same as the 18z run. Cat 4 into the Alabama coastline.

[Steve]

Cat 4 heading for Dauphin Island, Grand Bay, Bayou La Batre, Pascagoula, Moss Point and those locales. That's got destruction written all over it. I lived down there for a couple months after Katrina which hit 70 miles west of there and it was all pretty destroyed and had that rotten after-smell for many weeks. This is stronger than Katrina at MS Landfall.

[Kingarabian]

00z Euro hours 00-48:

[Steve]

Last model post from me tonight. Laura goes in and has a W component still and ends up near Laurel & Hattiesburg as still a Cat 2.


Looking like an 11 figure storm. It's still August, and this is only the 3rd Hurricane if it came to pass.

Landfall IR Sim. You don't want to be near that landfall I don't think.

[Kingarabian]

00z Euro hour 72:


Weaker than the 18z at hour 72 but it should bomb out.

[Storm Battered]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/716215692617187328/746607640565776394/hmon_mslp_wind_13L_43.png

Galveston 1900 anyone?

There is a Seawall now.

[txag2005]

Is that Marco just south of LA? Isn't that a massive shift from central Tx coast all the way over to central LA?

[Blinhart]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/716215692617187328/746607640565776394/hmon_mslp_wind_13L_43.png

Galveston 1900 anyone?

There is a Seawall now.

That Seawall is because of the Galveston 1900 storm, but it is only as good as can be depending on the direction of the storm coming in and the strength and movement speed. Slower moving storm that has built up a giant storm surge can overrun that seawall. I'm glad there is a seawall there, because I have seen the damage the on-coming surge can do if there is no seawall.

[Blinhart]

Is that Marco just south of LA? Isn't that a massive shift from central Tx coast all the way over to central LA?

Yes it is, there is a major shift of Marco from Texas to almost Mobile.

[Storm Battered]

That Seawall is because of the Galveston 1900 storm, but it is only as good as can be depending on the direction of the storm coming in and the strength and movement speed. Slower moving storm that has built up a giant storm surge can overrun that seawall. I'm glad there is a seawall there, because I have seen the damage the on-coming surge can do if there is no seawall.

But as it stands now, is it a slow moving storm? Would there be a lot of surge? Hurricane Ike in ‘08 produced Category 4 surge. That did not overtop the Seawall, although surge did hit from the harbor side.

[DestinHurricane]

To recap 00z suite:

GFS - cat 2 into TX/LA border

Euro - TS central LA

CMC - Cat 1 Alabama coast

ICON - TS AL/FL border

NAVGEM - TS AL/FL border

HWRF - Cat 4 Alabama coast after cat 2 in keys.

HMON - Cat 3 SE TX

[Kingarabian]

00z Euro hour 96:


Hour 120:

[Steve]

HWRF looks like a bit of an Eastern outlier on the 00z runs at SFWMD. HMON to the west. That's not a good sign for anyone west of Mobile or east of Port Arthur.
https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/hur ... odel-plots
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/stormin ... latest.png

[Kingarabian]

00z UKMET

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 17.8N 72.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 23.08.2020 36 18.9N 74.3W 1006 32
0000UTC 24.08.2020 48 19.5N 77.4W 1003 35
1200UTC 24.08.2020 60 20.8N 81.4W 1002 39
0000UTC 25.08.2020 72 22.3N 85.1W 999 42
1200UTC 25.08.2020 84 23.6N 88.6W 994 50
0000UTC 26.08.2020 96 24.8N 91.8W 987 51
1200UTC 26.08.2020 108 26.1N 94.7W 979 63
0000UTC 27.08.2020 120 27.4N 96.8W 961 77
1200UTC 27.08.2020 132 29.3N 97.7W 967 54
0000UTC 28.08.2020 144 32.0N 97.4W 970 51

[stormlover2013]

Kudos to gfs

[Steve]

To recap 00z suite:
GFS - cat 2 into TX/LA border
Euro - TS central LA
CMC - Cat 1 Alabama coast
ICON - TS AL/FL border
NAVGEM - TS AL/FL border
HWRF - Cat 4 Alabama coast after cat 2 in keys.
HMON - Cat 3 SE TX

What's messed up is that if the HWRF and eastern solutions are right, we're inside of 5 days. Hopefully it will stay weaker.

[Bluefrog]

Last model post from me tonight. Laura goes in and has a W component still and ends up near Laurel & Hattiesburg as still a Cat 2.
https://i.imgur.com/Gd9jXoo.png

Looking like an 11 figure storm. It's still August, and this is only the 3rd Hurricane if it came to pass.

Landfall IR Sim. You don't want to be near that landfall I don't think.
https://i.imgur.com/mmjdGqz.png

Geez. I’m in Pascagoula Mississippi. That’s more than scary. Need that model to change.

[wxman22]

Is that Marco just south of LA? Isn't that a massive shift from central Tx coast all the way over to central LA?

Yes it is, there is a major shift of Marco from Texas to almost Mobile.

It still shows Marco getting shunted to the west making landfall at Galveston fwiw.

[stormlover2013]

To recap 00z suite:

GFS - cat 2 into TX/LA border

Euro - TS central LA

CMC - Cat 1 Alabama coast

ICON - TS AL/FL border

NAVGEM - TS AL/FL border

HWRF - Cat 4 Alabama coast after cat 2 in keys.

HMON - Cat 3 SE TX

Euro didn’t show central la lol